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Push AA here with this action?

  
 
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drtofu66
Old 10-30-2006, 03:11 AM     Post subject: Push AA here with this action? #1 (permalink)  
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Did I get too overzelous with this? If it were HU I reraise to ~$5 but the bet and call complicated it for me. The pot's already 60BB and I have a stack of 90BB left. I've let too many people in hands like this too cheaply and have gotten burned. I thought about raising to $5 but this isn't HU. Pushing here gives the BB 2:1 pot odds; if he calls UTG+1 gets 3:1. If I only raise to $5 that leaves $4 behind, BB gets 3.1:1 and UTG+1 gets 4.1:1 and leaves them 4.5:1 odds or better to call a turn push.

This is a POT limit table, BTW. I figured UTG+1 for 99-QQ, (does an overpair to the board call a push enough to make it profitable?). BB has such a wide range IMHO-- 65, 87 (lord please no), 89, T9, A8....

BB is 71%/0.5%/1 over 200 hands
UTG+1 is 29%/1.4%/3 over 145 hands



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Stack sizes:
UTG: $4.10
UTG+1: $7.70
MP1: $5.70
MP2: $5.30
CO: $16
Hero: $10.15
SB: $13.10
BB: $16.30

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is Button with A A
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $0.35, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 7 7 8 ($3.05, 3 players)
BB bets $1.5, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises to $9.05
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salsa4ever
Old 10-30-2006, 03:53 AM #2 (permalink)  
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given what you predict are the player's hand ranges, what are the arguments for pushing?
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Would you bone your cousins? Salsa would.
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well courtie, since we're both clear, would you accept an invitation for some unprotected sex?
 
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drtofu66
Old 10-30-2006, 04:38 AM #3 (permalink)  
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I was mostly thinking that 99-QQ leads the flop and may call a push (50% of the time maybe?). The pot's already pretty big, so taking it down now isn't the worst thing in the world.

An OESD might call a push and smaller chance that KQ/KJ calls a push.

(Is it foolish to minimize the idea that either of these guys is entering a pot raised to 10BB with a 7 in their hand?)

Aside from 7x and 88 I'm ahead. If I'm up against QQ and T9, my equity is 61% (28% for the OESD and 11% for the QQ) so laying 2:1 odds is about right given the above possibilities.

I just wonder if I needlessly blew them off this hand or if I did enough to protect it but give them a chance to make a bad call.
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salsa4ever
Old 10-30-2006, 01:33 PM #4 (permalink)  
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don't act in a way that maximizes the opponent's chance of calling you with a hand that beats you and folding a hand that he should fold, based on the pot odds offered.

Generally, there is no reason to raise more than the pot. I don't see a reason to deviate from this here.
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well courtie, since we're both clear, would you accept an invitation for some unprotected sex?
 
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drtofu66
Old 10-30-2006, 01:42 PM #5 (permalink)  
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This is something that confuses me a bit--

When you say "raise the size of the pot", does that mean make it so that they have to call the amount of the current pot (essentially gining 2:1)? This was a PL hand, so the max/pot raise was putting me all-in.
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