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Robb
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04-29-2008, 08:44 PM
Post subject: Prop Bet: Understand Variance
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,072
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Push ups. If you want to understand variance, do push ups.
Every flopped set = 10 Push ups
Every pocket AA = 5 Push ups
Every pocket KK = 4 Push ups
For you studly 20 somethings, double 'em up. Make prop bet with yourself in push ups per premium hands.
If you play 1k hands and only do 20 push ups, you're running bad. If you play 100 hands and have experienced muscle failure (assuming you're not a complete pussy), then you're running good.
Every thousand hands you should do about 150 push ups. Multitable like Spoon and you might be in for a bit of a workout.
So you're thinking, wtf!?!?
See? I knew it. Here's the deal. You don't understand variance like you should. You think you ruined your bankroll just because you got bad cards. Not true. You think you're playing like Johnny Chan when you're up 3 BI. Unlikely. Premium hands and flopped sets are the biggest, most common NLH money makers. Track 'em for a while, and you'll learn several things:
1. Sets drive your short term win rate (2k hands or less)
2. Your big wins have a LOT more to do with positive variance (and less to do with great play) than you thought
3. Your losing sessions are probably due to the fact that you suck at poker
I'll be the first to admit there's more to variance than how often you have pocket rockets and flopped sets. You need villains to pick up something when you have the nuts, something they'll stack off with. But doing push ups is a way to keep track of how you're running during a session. When I'm sore and out of breath from doing push ups and down a BI, I'm pretty sure I suck at poker. When I've only managed 25 pushups for the last 400 hands, yet I'm up 2 BI, I'm know I'm playing well and reading the game - and probably getting some other variance-type breaks.
But if you wanna understand variance, try this for a couple of weeks. You'll learn a lot about your game and about how poker works.
I have. And I'm hulkin' up, too. :P
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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Variance is a short term problem. Here's an example of todays session and how it fits into the grand scheme.
Today
April with today in the black box
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belikeme
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do you need some help?
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bikes
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a hot damn mess
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,448
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I'm confuzzled. Where is the prop bet?
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I damage threads that may actually benefit some posters
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
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i choose poker so i wudnt have to do exercise
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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sarbox68
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: wondering where the 3 extra chairs at my 6max table came from
Posts: 871
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Short but relevant story...
I tried Robb's suggestion. I ran goot! My arms got really tired. I f-in misclicked the slider twice and accidentally stacked off w/ crappy c-bets. Ended the session for a loss.
But I feel plenty buff.... 
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flomo
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: mashing potatoes
Posts: 878
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replies deliver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
Protect dog
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05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
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