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Profitable set mining?

  
 
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Donkafelts
Old 09-25-2009, 02:19 AM     Post subject: Profitable set mining? #1 (permalink)  
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Villian is 13/10/1 (VP$IP, PFR, 3betpre%) over 500 hands. Basically a complete nit. He 3 bet one time before out of 140 chances with AA. I called pre because i think he does this with AA/KK and maby QQ/AK so implied odds are pretty much direct. I called flop because villian may be able to get away from AK or QQ to a raise here, and is drawing slim with AA anyways. Shoved turn because i think he's too comitted to fold anything aside from maby queens which i doubt he bets on turn. Curious if the call pre is reasonable and if the rest of the hand is fine.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($5.32)
Hero (UTG) ($5.50)
MP ($10.10)
Button ($5.40)
SB ($5)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6, 6
Hero bets $0.20, 2 folds, SB raises to $0.60, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.25) K, 6, 8 (2 players)
SB bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.85) J (2 players)
SB bets $1.65, Hero raises to $3.75, SB calls $1.95 (All-In)

River: ($10.05) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $10.05 | Rake: $0.45
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Old 09-25-2009, 02:30 AM #2 (permalink)  
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pre is close, and postflop is fine I guess although raising flop is better, I don't think he folds AK/AA anyway

problem is if he has like QQ he would fold this flop, if he has KK he would fold Axx and if he has AK he misses 30%

if he has KK+ exactly then you should call pre
if he has QQ+,AK it's like fine either way because you're calling 8 to win 100 and if he folds his hand 25% post-flop you're breaking even
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Donkafelts
Old 09-25-2009, 02:40 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Donkafelts
What hands does a flop raise get more value from? What makes you think villian won't fold TPTK in 3 bet pot?
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jyms
Old 09-25-2009, 02:42 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 I don't think you can call pre if you think he has AK, QQ+ because your barely getting odds to the point that you would have to stack him 100% of the time and I just don't see that even with him holding AA guarenteed. Boards can turn sour in a hurry and even the nittIEst player can fold AA on mono or 4 straight boards
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Old 09-25-2009, 02:45 AM #5 (permalink)  
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I don't think you can call pre if you think he has AK, QQ+ because your barely getting odds to the point that you would have to stack him 100% of the time and I just don't see that even with him holding AA guarenteed. Boards can turn sour in a hurry and even the nittIEst player can fold AA on mono or 4 straight boards
that's why raising flop is better I don't want him to think "zomg they got there again" and fold turn when it comes a club

but in all seriousness if he's felting 100% postflop, you only need 10:1 odds because you'll flop 1/8 times and get badbeat/setoverset once in ten or something

if you're getting 12:1 he can fold 20% of the time and we're getting correct odds still
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Donkafelts
Old 09-25-2009, 02:52 AM #6 (permalink)  
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His previous three betting patterns don't indicate he 3 bets AK or QQ. Infact its possible he is only three betting aces, although that would be hella nitty. I didn't actually consider the set over set thing so thanks for that, but i think flop call is still right. I think its slim that villian will shut down to third club on turn. Maby he won't call a shove but very unlikely he's c/f'ing.

Math is weird on this one.
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Old 09-25-2009, 02:54 AM #7 (permalink)  
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well, ok say he doesn't bet the turn, so you bet it for him
and then the river is a fourth fucking club
he either just made the nuts or he's folding his pocket aces
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Micro2Macro
Old 09-25-2009, 02:55 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donkafelts
What hands does a flop raise get more value from? What makes you think villian won't fold TPTK in 3 bet pot?
same type of hands that felt turn, though maybe even worse since c/c c/r is the classic 'lol set line'.

If you have to ask the question: "what makes you think villain won't fold TPTK in a 3 bet pot" then you should probably be folding pre.
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Donkafelts
Old 09-25-2009, 03:00 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Percentage chance of runner runner clubs = (7/47) * (6/46) * 100 = 1.94% Not really too note worthy + not much else can make board scary for villian except QJT which might give us a set when he has aces, but he's not folding.
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Old 09-25-2009, 03:06 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Donkafelts
What hands does a flop raise get more value from? What makes you think villian won't fold TPTK in 3 bet pot?
same type of hands that felt turn, though maybe even worse since c/c c/r is the classic 'lol set line'.

If you have to ask the question: "what makes you think villain won't fold TPTK in a 3 bet pot" then you should probably be folding pre.
this
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Micro2Macro
Old 09-25-2009, 03:07 AM #11 (permalink)  
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 that's for the flop, once the turn comes a club you need to re-eval the chances of a club showing up on the river. so theres really a 9/fortysomething chance one peels on the turn - and that could very well be enough to kill your action.

what would you typically c/r with on this flop in this scenerio?
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Donkafelts
Old 09-25-2009, 03:09 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Hmm my line does look like a set for sure, thanks for posts.
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