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Evans

04-24-2005, 05:43 PM Post subject: Probe bets

#1 (permalink)

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Let's say that you call preflop in early position with a decent hand. A player behind you raise, everybody else folds, and you decide to call his raise. The flop comes, it misses you. What do you do in this situation? If you check, the preflop raiser will certainly make a continuation bet regardless of whether or not he made a hand, and you don't know anything about the strength of the other players hand. Isn't it better to make a probe bet after the flop, of let's say half the pot? That way you give yourself 2-1 pot odds, and if you pick up the pot right there one out of three times, you're going even in the long run. It's more likely that your opponent also missed his hand, than that he hit something on the flop, isn't it? If you make this probe bet, you're putting him to the test and now he has to decide whether you made a hand or if you are just bluffing or making a probe bet. If your opponent raises your bet, you know that he probably has a good hand and you can fold and not risk losing more money on the turn and river. If he calls, you can probably put him on some kind of a hand, maybe a draw (although he doesn't get the right pot odds to call if you bet half the pot), and you should go into check/fold mode. If he folds, you've earned yourself some money.

What do you think of making probe bets like this? Should you make them, how often should you make them, in what situations, how much, against one or several players, against callers or raisers, etc?

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face

04-24-2005, 06:06 PM Post subject: Re: Probe bets

#2 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jan 2005

Posts: 187

Quote:

Originally Posted by Evans

If you make this probe bet, you're putting him to the test and now he has to decide whether you made a hand or if you are just bluffing or making a probe bet. If your opponent raises your bet, you know that he probably has a good hand and you can fold and not risk losing more money on the turn and river. If he calls, you can probably put him on some kind of a hand, maybe a draw (although he doesn't get the right pot odds to call if you bet half the pot), and you should go into check/fold mode. If he folds, you've earned yourself some money.

I don't think this is true. Many people who raise preflop will reraise any smallish bet postflop on principle. It puts more money in the pot, and people expect to be checked to when they raise preflop. In SuperSystem, Brunson talks about betting into the raiser after the flop when you make a monster, precisely because it provokes many people into coming over the top of you.

Rondavu

04-25-2005, 08:26 PM Post subject: Re: Probe bets

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2005

Posts: 3,053

Quote:

Originally Posted by face

Quote:

Originally Posted by Evans

I agree with this. Here's the logic behind it in my mind. There is a widespread expectation of continuing aggression postflop from a preflop raiser. Therefore, someone who makes a monster hand against this aggressor is benefitting more by feigning weakness against the aggressor than leading out if first to act. A lead out probe bet isn't respected because it is not a logical way to maximize profit if you had flopped a great hand against an almost certain continuation from the aggressor. If you had a great hand, you would act in a certain way as to be payed off, which means you would trap the aggressor by checking.

If you check raise the aggressor, they will fold without a good hand, and be happy to steal 2 out of 3 pots on their future continuations.

When you probe bet as opposed to check raising, you are saying exactly this to a good poker player....

I either have nothing, or a vulnerable hand. If I had a monster I would have checked to trap you. It's that simple.

This is why Doyle Brunson is correct. If you have a monster and you probe bet the pot, it is sometimes better than checking to the aggressor.

Basically the answer to your question is that you'll get away with it against novices. Good players will eat you alive. Good players must be trapped because most of them are good because they prey on weakness like Doyle Brunson. The way to beat that is by acting weak when your not. You probe bet a good player and he'll come right back over the top of you unless you probed with a monster against them previous.

Good poker is about keeping people honest and off balance. What your proposing to do is get yourself into a tendancy. It's a readable weakness. It's a tell if you do it over and over at the same table.

I suggest you work it into your game. Probe bet with the nuts one time, then probe bet that same player next time and get them to fold when you hold nothing. Change it up and maximize.

It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.

SmackinYaUp

04-25-2005, 11:32 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Join Date: Dec 2004

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Posts: 1,725

What also helps is not to call preflop raises with decent hands. Either come in raising or fold. Fold those crappy KJ AQ hands if theres a raise, and especially if youre out of position. About the only time I call a preflop raise cold is with pocket pairs or maybe some suited connectors - even though usually the suited connectors miss anyways.

ChezJ

04-26-2005, 06:21 AM

#5 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Oct 2004

Location: Washington, D.C.

Posts: 1,456

ChezJ is an unknown quantity at this point

there is a simply way out of this. don't limp in EP and don't call raises in EP.

position is EVERYTHING in NL.

ender555

04-26-2005, 02:35 PM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 647

probe bets don't scare me when I'm the pre-flop raiser.

I'll come over the top every time if I miss my hand and you bet at the pot.

take brunson's advice.

SmackinYaUp

04-26-2005, 09:03 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Posts: 1,725

Quote:

Originally Posted by ender555

probe bets don't scare me when I'm the pre-flop raiser.

I'll come over the top every time if I miss my hand and you bet at the pot.

take brunson's advice.

Explain more please...Ive never done this.

How often does this bite you in the ass and how often does this work?

More info, I like it

SmackinYaUp

04-26-2005, 09:13 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Posts: 1,725

I decided to randomly try it out..

***** Hand History for Game 1956745786 *****
$50 NL Hold'em - Tuesday, April 26, 17:11:39 EDT 2005
Table Table 37283 (6 max) (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 2: fountain42 ( $23.85 )
Seat 3: SmackinYaUp ( $52.75 )
Seat 5: Ignigknokt ( $59.8 )
Seat 6: Shystee13 ( $59.65 )
Seat 1: la3z3nt ( $54.3 )
Shystee13 posts small blind [$0.25].
la3z3nt posts big blind [$0.5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to SmackinYaUp [ 9h Ac ]
fountain42 calls [$0.5].
SmackinYaUp raises [$2].
Ignigknokt folds.
Shystee13 calls [$1.75].
la3z3nt folds.
fountain42 calls [$1.5].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Tc, Jc, 7s ]
Shystee13 bets [$4].
fountain42 calls [$4].
SmackinYaUp raises [$50].
Shystee13 is all-In [$53.65]
fountain42 folds.
SmackinYaUp is all-In [$0.75]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5d ]
** Dealing River ** [ Jd ]
SmackinYaUp shows [ 9h, Ac ] a pair of jacks.
Shystee13 shows [ 8s, 9c ] a straight, seven to jack.
Shystee13 wins $6.9 from side pot #1 with a straight, seven to jack.
Shystee13 wins $110 from the main pot with a straight, seven to jack.

Oops - bad timing!

dalecooper

04-26-2005, 09:35 PM

#9 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Sep 2004

Posts: 3,107

That's some pretty serious aggression, sir... you ought to think about tamping that down 50,000 notches.

SmackinYaUp

04-27-2005, 02:16 AM

#10 (permalink)

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Join Date: Dec 2004

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Posts: 1,725

Of course I did this with the worst possible board, the worst possible hole cards and after a bet AND a caller. I almost did fold to that .75 cent raise out of shame but hey what if I would have gotten runner runner clubs!

I think that whole chapter about picking your spots needs my attention asap.

Im gonna try this again later when I see a good time. Wish me luck and a lack of stupidity.

SmackinYaUp

04-27-2005, 09:04 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Join Date: Dec 2004

Location: B N L

Posts: 1,725

***** Hand History for Game 1962069324 *****
$50 NL Hold'em - Wednesday, April 27, 17:01:23 EDT 2005
Table Table 36948 (6 max) (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: Poirelli ( $68.34 )
Seat 2: Freeze48 ( $54 )
Seat 3: Tendzen ( $191.85 )
Seat 5: raywick ( $31.5 )
Seat 6: SmackinYaUp ( $58.05 )
Seat 4: holemsoft ( $41.63 )
SmackinYaUp posts small blind [$0.25].
Poirelli posts big blind [$0.5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to SmackinYaUp [ 8h 8s ]
Freeze48 raises [$3].
Tendzen folds.
holemsoft folds.
raywick folds.
SmackinYaUp calls [$2.75].
Poirelli calls [$2.5].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4d, 7c, 6d ]
SmackinYaUp checks.
Poirelli checks.
Freeze48 bets [$4].
SmackinYaUp calls [$4].
Poirelli folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9s ]
SmackinYaUp checks.
Freeze48 bets [$9].
SmackinYaUp is all-In [$51.05]
Freeze48 folds.
SmackinYaUp does not show cards.
SmackinYaUp wins $75.3

ender555

04-28-2005, 01:23 AM

#12 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 647

Quote:

Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp

Quote:

Originally Posted by ender555

probe bets don't scare me when I'm the pre-flop raiser.

I'll come over the top every time if I miss my hand and you bet at the pot.

take brunson's advice.

Explain more please...Ive never done this.

How often does this bite you in the ass and how often does this work?

More info, I like it

it depends on your table image a lot. table image makes the difference here for sure. if you're a tight player it will work a whole lot of the time, if you're loose people will re-raise all in sometimes.

This sort of thing makes you prone to trapping, and if someone hits trips and min raises it might cost u a little. it all depends on how u play the turn and river.

i'd say it's very profitable to do this sort of thing on the flop, but if he calls when you get to the turn you need to re-evaluate and figure out what the other guy is holding.

If he's on a draw and you think he is, you can push him off. If not, which sadly this is the case a lot of the times, you lose quite a bit of your money here bluffing, id say close to 30% of the time i get called on the turn.

bluffing the river- i try this occasionally when i sense weakness, but you can't be shy about it and hte pot needs to be worth it. i have been a pretyt bad judge of late and i have defintely lost more than won here.

if your roll can accomdate this sort of practice i'd say go for it... i know mine can right now and im gonna keep practicing until i can read better.

that'd be great if someone at the higher level ring game showed us some of there stuff and gave us some more tips on this sort of thing

edit:// I just saw your hands smackin, I definitely laughed lol. those are some balls you got there my friend. I wouldn't try that move more than once an hour per table... you're going to run into a set sometime and get bitch slapped lol.

when I said come over the top i meant something like this

1 dollar raise preflop get 2 callers

flop

first caller bets a dollar at a 3 dollar pot

i'll re-raise him 5 almost every time and take it down...

this works well if 2 people call too, but you have to up the bet size the more people are in..

i didn't mean throwing down 50 bucks lol.. although that looks tight and if my aggressive style starts working better ill definitely throw a few of those in

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