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Probably a good spot to double barrel...

  
 
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loonychune
Old 02-05-2009, 01:29 AM     Post subject: Probably a good spot to double barrel... #1 (permalink)  
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I think I missed a good opportunity to fire a second barrel on the turn here, for these reasons.

1) I've got plenty of outs even if he is holding a K.
2) My Q might be good so there's value to be had.
3) I might earn myself a free showdown.

No stats on villain except that he'd folded all 3 of the 19 hands he's played on the flop.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($15.50)
MP3 ($30.40)
CO ($10)
Button ($6.25)
SB ($8.65)
Villain (BB) ($9.05)
Hero (UTG) ($10.25)
UTG+1 ($9.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, Q
Hero raises to $0.40, 6 folds, Villain calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.85) 5, Q, K (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $0.60, Villain calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.05) 4 (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero checks

River: ($2.05) 5 (2 players)
Villain bets $1, Hero folds

Total pot: $2.05 | Rake: $0.20
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bjsaust
Old 02-05-2009, 01:31 AM #2 (permalink)  
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If you think you should bet that turn, then you should definately call that river. You're being inconsistent.
Just playing to improve.
 
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loonychune
Old 02-05-2009, 01:37 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Probably should have called the river once I check yeah. Be nice to know what you think about actually betting this river though.
 
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tncatfish43
Old 02-05-2009, 01:47 AM #4 (permalink)  

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you should have at least called the river if no reason but to keep them from trying to push you off pots later,if they know you're aapt to call with 2nd pair on paired board they will be less likely to try to bluff at you
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kb coolman
Old 02-05-2009, 01:50 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Yep, you should have bet that turn. And you have to call the river here. You don't think you have at least 33% equity to call $1 on a $3 pot?

Yout don't have a lot of info on the villain, but let's be generic and say he has a 15% VPIP range (3/19). What does Stove have to say?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

132 games 0.005 secs 26,400 games/sec

Board: 5d Qh Kd 4c 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.697% 36.40% 02.30% 48 3.00 { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 61.303% 59.00% 02.30% 77 3.00 { AdQd }
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bjsaust
Old 02-05-2009, 01:51 AM #6 (permalink)  
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I dont expect him to fold any better hands on turn, so checking behind seems like a good plan. Now you have a bluff catcher on the river and 3:1 odds.
Just playing to improve.
 
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Illfavor
Old 02-05-2009, 03:59 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bjsaust
I dont expect him to fold any better hands on turn, so checking behind seems like a good plan. Now you have a bluff catcher on the river and 3:1 odds.
But won't a lot of worse hands fold/make a bad call? Worse queens, JT, drawing dead-flush draws, etc? Even a TT/JJ type hand might float here. Just wondering...
Ich grolle nicht...
 
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loonychune
Old 02-05-2009, 05:28 AM #8 (permalink)  
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A 'bluff catcher', meaning it gives someone the opportunity to bluff (in this case, he might try to represent trip 5s)? Not really met this term yet.

I have been playing around with his range of hands and I think a call is probably only -EV if he only ever bets here with decent Qs and Ks.
 
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bjsaust
Old 02-05-2009, 05:51 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Illfavor
Quote:
Originally Posted by bjsaust
I dont expect him to fold any better hands on turn, so checking behind seems like a good plan. Now you have a bluff catcher on the river and 3:1 odds.
But won't a lot of worse hands fold/make a bad call? Worse queens, JT, drawing dead-flush draws, etc? Even a TT/JJ type hand might float here. Just wondering...
You're trying to get 3 streets of value out of 2nd pair? You dont need to be every street man.
Just playing to improve.
 
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bjsaust
Old 02-05-2009, 05:54 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by loonychune
A 'bluff catcher', meaning it gives someone the opportunity to bluff (in this case, he might try to represent trip 5s)? Not really met this term yet.

I have been playing around with his range of hands and I think a call is probably only -EV if he only ever bets here with decent Qs and Ks.
Yeah, if you split his range of hands into made hands and bluffs then you probably dont beat any of his made hands that bet, but you do beat his bluff hands. So a busted FD or SD, some kind of 88-JJ hand that floated flop and now bets because...well most people dont get the concept of a hand with showdown value. Even just Ax hands that some people dont like to fold on the flop.
Just playing to improve.
 
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bigspenda73
Old 02-05-2009, 06:43 AM #11 (permalink)  
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 I'd bet the turn

basically my thoughts are that we're never going to get a better hand to fold but a lot of worse hands will call including straight and flush draws as well as worse Qx hands. If I were at all worried about getting c/bombed on the turn I wouldn't bet however due to the board texture I would either expect my opponent to c/c or c/f a ridiculously high % of the time.
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