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Renton
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12-17-2006, 12:10 PM
Post subject: This is probably a dumb question...
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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You have 100 dollars and QQ under the gun. You raise to 4 and villain makes it 14 from the button. He also has 100 dollars.
You are absolutely certain that his threebetting range is precisely QQ+ AK.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
297,940,896 games 0.469 secs 635,268,434 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.2071 % 38.35% 01.86% { QQ }
Hand 2: 59.7929 % 57.93% 01.86% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
If you make the call, you are in a shitty spot when you flop an overpair out of position. But when you hit a set, you win his stack a significant percentage of the time.
Is this really a fold to the 14 raise?
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Halv
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pro crastinator
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: No hindsight for the blind.
Posts: 1,842
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Universal truth: there are no dumb questions.
We must also take into account villains post-flop tendencies (will he shut down AK unimproved?) and our preflop FE against AK, KK and the other QQ.
(Note how I don't even attempt to answer the question.)
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by HalvSame
(will he shut down AK unimproved?)
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irrelevant if he is smart enough to check AA/KK sometimes as well (hence, fucking you bigtime)
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Halv
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pro crastinator
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: No hindsight for the blind.
Posts: 1,842
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
Quote:
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Originally Posted by HalvSame
(will he shut down AK unimproved?)
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irrelevant if he is smart enough to check AA/KK sometimes as well (hence, fucking you bigtime) |
On the other hand this gives us 4 cards to hit our set sometimes. But the "shut down" issue is also more complex; how often does he float w/ AK if we bet flop? What if the flop checks through and we bet turn?
Someone come in here with the big math guns!
(but against this villain in this situation it sounds like you are really asking the old "is 10x implied odds enough to set hunt" question, right?)
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zenbitz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,911
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Find a better spot!
Obviously, the reason this is hard is because it's close. The implied odds aren't really there.... How often does AK stack off on a Q94 flop?
note that the same flops that stack AK (KQX/AQX) are also set-over-sets losses for you. But are the pot odds there? You are a 3:2 dog and getting ~2:1.
Obv. if a A or K flops you fold. Even in the above set-over-set cases, you should probably play pretty fast (although if villain has KK on AQX flop, you are not winning much either.
I think on a blank flop you are just going to have to play. I think you can bet like 1/2 pot. Statistically, you are ahead vs. his range but you are not likely to win much.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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I actually folded QQ to one threebet yesterday because thats what I thought his range was, and as I was clicking fold I felt dumb. But honestly, I think its the right play.
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sejje
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 883
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zenbitz
Find a better spot!
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Or a better opponent. I fold there.
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zenbitz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,911
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Find a better spot!
Obviously, the reason this is hard is because it's close. The implied odds aren't really there.... How often does AK stack off on a Q94 flop?
note that the same flops that stack AK (KQX/AQX) are also set-over-sets losses for you. But are the pot odds there? You are a 3:2 dog and getting ~2:1.
Obv. if a A or K flops you fold. Even in the above set-over-set cases, you should probably play pretty fast (although if villain has KK on AQX flop, you are not winning much either.
I think on a blank flop you are just going to have to play. I think you can bet like 1/2 pot. Statistically, you are ahead vs. his range but you are not likely to win much.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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I think a fold is better here.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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qq/AK is the new AJ/KQ 
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
qq/AK is the new AJ/KQ |
Until people start reraising light more.
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