|
G3O
|
08-03-2005, 07:47 PM
Post subject: Probability of Pairing
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto Area
Posts: 58
|
|
My apologies if this has already been answered....
Question 1: How do I calculate the probability of pairing one of two random Hole Cards by the river. ie. If i have A7o, how do I calculate the probability % that I make a pair by the River?
Question 2: How do I calculate the probability that by the River, someone will make a pair higher than my pocket pair? ie. I hold 77, what are the chances that someone makes 88 or higher by the River?
Thanks in advance. I have been scratching my head over this for a while now.
|
|
"Due to circumstances beyond my control, I am the master of my fate, the captain of my soul." - Some dead guy with a great sense of irony.
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
drmcboy
|
|
DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,602
|
|
http://www.flopturnriver.com/essays_pairs.html
start here.
|
|
|
|
G3O
|
|
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto Area
Posts: 58
|
|
Very Nice. Thanks.
|
|
"Due to circumstances beyond my control, I am the master of my fate, the captain of my soul." - Some dead guy with a great sense of irony.
|
|
G3O
|
|
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto Area
Posts: 58
|
|
drmcboy (or anyone else who cares to enlighten me),
I have a couple more questions:
1) I assume that 'rnd' columns mean random? As in 'rnd o val' = percentage probability that a random card will be an overcard.
2) How can I use information on this chart to determine the % of at least 1 of 2 random cards pairing by the river?
Thanks for the help.
|
|
"Due to circumstances beyond my control, I am the master of my fate, the captain of my soul." - Some dead guy with a great sense of irony.
|
|
biondino
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Putney, UK; Full Tilt,Mansion; $50 NL and PL; $13 and $16 SNGs at Stars
Posts: 3,170
|
|
It's 44%.
|
|
|
|
G3O
|
|
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto Area
Posts: 58
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by biondino
It's 44%.
|
How did you calculate that? You didn't think I would let you off that easy did you? 
|
|
"Due to circumstances beyond my control, I am the master of my fate, the captain of my soul." - Some dead guy with a great sense of irony.
|
|
CrunchyNuts
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 436
|
|
Inversion...it's much easier to figure out the chance that neither will pair then taking the inverse of that.
There's 6 cards that pair any random 2 non-paired cards, and 50 unknown cards. So the chance of *not* pairing them is the odds of each card not being one of the 6 multiplied all together:
Code:
44/50 * 43/49 * 42/48 * 41/47 * 40/46
130320960/221088000
0.5894528875379939209726443768997
So the chance of pairing is 1-that, so roughly 1-.59 = 0.41 = 41%
|
|
|
|
G3O
|
|
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto Area
Posts: 58
|
|
Thank you. You guys are great.
Crunchynuts,
I like your math. Now, if I am to express this in odds-
100 / 41 (chance from your Inversion example) = 2.439 or 1 : 1.439
I take this to mean that I will hit at least one pair once for every 2.439 times I try. Am I right or am I way off?
|
|
"Due to circumstances beyond my control, I am the master of my fate, the captain of my soul." - Some dead guy with a great sense of irony.
|
|
EricE
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 894
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by G3O
Thank you. You guys are great.
Crunchynuts,
I like your math. Now, if I am to express this in odds-
100 / 41 (chance from your Inversion example) = 2.439 or 1 : 1.439
I take this to mean that I will hit at least one pair once for every 2.439 times I try. Am I right or am I way off?
|
...IF you pay all the way to the river. hehe, Thats not something I am going to do.
|
|
Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL
|
|
CrunchyNuts
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 436
|
|
Yup.
|
|
|
|
G3O
|
|
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto Area
Posts: 58
|
|
Thanks again CrunchyNuts.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by EricE
...IF you pay all the way to the river. hehe, Thats not something I am going to do.
|
Come on EricE, don't you like to gamble? lol.
|
|
"Due to circumstances beyond my control, I am the master of my fate, the captain of my soul." - Some dead guy with a great sense of irony.
|
|
EricE
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 894
|
|
hehe, playing when you have odds is not so much gambling as paying your dues... you know it will pay off in the long run. Im not much of a gambler.
|
|
Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
Linear Mode
