|
Zangief
|
01-26-2005, 06:44 PM
Post subject: Probability of completing a flush draw
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Massachusetts, USA
Posts: 370
|
|
I've been thinking about this for the last few days and wondered what others thought about this.
The situation in question is when you have 2 suited cards (let's say As 9s) and there are 2 of your suit on the flop (let's say 3s Ks 8d).
Everything I have read about this has suggested that you have 9 outs to make your flush on the turn card, giving you a 9/47 = 19% chance.
While in the best case it is true that no one else would hold any of your suit, I think it is not accurate in the average case.
In a 10-handed ring game, there are 20 cards dealt to the players. On average, there will be 20 cards / 4 suits = 5 cards of each suit dealt out. Since you hold 2 spades, on average there will be 3 spades dealt out to the other players.
So, on average, you really only have 9 - 3 = 6 outs to make your flush on the turn card, giving you a 6/47 = 13% chance.
Does this make sense to anyone else? Or am I breaking correct probability calculations with my "average" thinking?
It just seems to me that having 9 outs for the flush is really the best case, where in poker we really want to rely on the average case. And I'm trying to figure out what that average case is.
Has anyone seen this covered elsewhere?
Thanks.
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
dalecooper
|
|
01-26-2005, 06:53 PM
Post subject: Re: Probability of completing a flush draw
|
#2 (permalink)
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
|
|
You overthought it and came to the wrong conclusion. There are 47 cards you haven't seen, including your opponents' hands; 9 of those are spades. That's 9 outs in 47 cards. If you wanted to go about it the way you are proposing, you would account for not just the missing spades but also the missing cards your opponents hold, so your outs are 6 in 29, which works out to be basically the same percentage and therefore gives you the same calling odds.
|
|
|
|
Zangief
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Massachusetts, USA
Posts: 370
|
|
Yes, I think you're right. Thanks for helping me figure this out.
|
|
|
|
bspahn
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 851
|
|
yup i agree.
Zangief - you're on UB right, do you have ultimate buddy? Whats your exact handle..
|
|
|
|
mimmons775
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 92
|
|
off the flop if you have 4 to a flush you have about a 35 percent chance to hit the flush draw with the turn and river to come, if you hit your flush draw on the turn you have about a 17 percent chance to hit it on the river.
|
|
"I guess if there wasnt luck involved id win everyone."
|
|
ttanaka
|
|
Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 1,184
|
|
I like it when Zangief body slams Dhalsim.
|
|
|
|
TylerK
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by ttanaka
I like it when Zangief body slams Dhalsim.
|
My cat's breath smells like cat food.
|
|
TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
|
|
Zangief
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Massachusetts, USA
Posts: 370
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by TylerK
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by ttanaka
I like it when Zangief body slams Dhalsim.
|
My cat's breath smells like cat food. |
I like it when Zangief piledrives Ralph Wiggum.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by bspahn
Zangief - you're on UB right, do you have ultimate buddy? Whats your exact handle.. |
I just installed UltimateBuddy. My exact handle on UltimateBet is the imaginative "Zangief0" (that's a zero).
I assume you're asking because you're convinced I'm a fish? 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
{This post has been removed}
|
|
|
|
Zangief
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Massachusetts, USA
Posts: 370
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
(sigh)
the flush draw
every poker players nemesis
|
I do find that I play hands trying to defend against flush draws more often than I am playing a flush draw myself. But isn't a flush draw a tool for everyone to use? I know I enjoy it when I semi-bluff with one, get a caller, and hit the flush on the turn ....
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
amazing this topic came up... yesterday i had 23 flush draws on the flop... just one card away...
I was 1 for 23 all yesterday with making them... I think I defied odds
|
|
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
Linear Mode
