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The power of the re-draw

  
 
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KY_Ace
Old 03-06-2006, 08:12 AM     Post subject: The power of the re-draw #1 (permalink)  
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I was fiddling with the odds calculator and was surprised at how big an effect the redraw has, here's an example:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1588919
pokenum -h 6d 8d - js ks -- jc 6c 2h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc 6c 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8d 6d 182 18.38 808 81.62 0 0.00 0.184
Ks Js 808 81.62 182 18.38 0 0.00 0.816

Now simply change 1 card on the flop and your odds increase by 9% upto a whopping 27.4% with bottom pair!!! Still no 1 card straight or flush draw.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1588916
pokenum -h 6d 8d - js ks -- jc 6c 7d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc 6c 7d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8d 6d 271 27.37 719 72.63 0 0.00 0.274
Ks Js 719 72.63 271 27.37 0 0.00 0.726

I was just fiddling with the odds calculator not really looking for anything specific... any ideas on how to use this myterious phenomenon to our advantage???? anyone???
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mdwav
Old 03-06-2006, 09:43 AM #2 (permalink)  
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While you only changed one card, you gave the 86s the best possible card (aside from a 6/8 of course). The 7d gives 86s not one but two back door draws.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1589019
pokenum -h 8d 6d - ks js -- jc 6c 7h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc 6c 7h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8d 6d 230 23.23 760 76.77 0 0.00 0.232
Ks Js 760 76.77 230 23.23 0 0.00 0.768

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1589021
pokenum -h 8d 6d - ks js -- jc 6c 2d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc 6c 2d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8d 6d 226 22.83 764 77.17 0 0.00 0.228
Ks Js 764 77.17 226 22.83 0 0.00 0.772

Kinda odd how the BDFD actuallyl has less EV than a BDSD though. In answer to your question, I don't think you can really use a backdoor draw to that big an advantange, esp in NL. In limit having the 2 backdoor draws might give you odds to continue, but in NL whether you have odds to continue are dependent on the flop bet. Granted, if you somehow make it to the river with the 86s and make a backdoor flush, it's well hidden (the backdoor straight draw is blatantly obvious as it's a 1 carder); but unless the turn+river combo includes either a Jd or a Kd it's somewhat unlikely you'll win a huge pot. Even if a BDFD is well hidden, it'll take a pretty bad opponent to get stacked with just TPGK. Of course, there's also the slight possibility that the turn + river will come exactly Jd Kd, which would be bad (but then you probably won't lose your stack with a baby flush on a paired board). But if you want a worse case (other than opp having a set), I guess this qualifies. Now running diamonds could be really bad.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1589024
pokenum -h 8d 6d - kd jd -- jc 6c 2d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc 6c 2d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8d 6d 182 18.38 808 81.62 0 0.00 0.184
Kd Jd 808 81.62 182 18.38 0 0.00 0.816
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KY_Ace
Old 03-06-2006, 03:12 PM #3 (permalink)  
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You make some good points. The only situation where I can see this being useful is late in a SnG when the blinds are huge and someone limps on your BB. With an 18% chance to outdraw a higher pair i might check and fold but with a 27% chance you can push. You might be leading with your pair anyways.
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