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Staple Gun
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08-25-2004, 04:23 PM
Post subject: Pot odds vs. Potential pot odds
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Gamblers Anonymous
Posts: 812
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Ok so here is what i was thinking, say you have an Ace high flush draw after the turn, you have 9 outs of course so your odds are around 20% of hitting the flush. Now asume you there are 2 players left aside from you, one bets $2 on a $2 pot (with normal pot odds it would be best to fold 25% vs. your 20% odds), the other player calls. if you call and get your flush chances are you will win much more than the $6 that was there when you calculated your initial pot odds.
So we'll say that you call the bet every time. out of 10 times you hit 2 flushes on average, each time you hit a flush you bet more and win an average of a $20 pot. It cost you $20 to call the bets, you dont hit your flush 8 out of 10 times and fold, you pay $20 and win $40.
Now I know that exact situation wont come around to often but I think it is better to calculate how much you think the pot will grow to when calculatting pot odds. Im sure this has been thought of and probably written about before. Any thoughts?
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Krapp
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 313
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I believe what you are talking about is implied odds vs pot odds. Implied odds is what you believe you can win if you hit your outs (say on the river) vs what you will need to bet. Assuming you hit your flush, do you believe the opps will call your bet (hopefully a big bet)? If so, the implied odds would demand you stay-in.
Also your particular situation, I would bet all the time, the person didnt bet very big (I would put them on a top-pair) and the second opp called (probably pair or drawing too). You also probably got pot odds too since if an Ace hits on the river, you might have the best hand. Im assuming the board didnt have an Ace so the opp betting might be betting the current top pair that flopped.
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Staple Gun
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Gamblers Anonymous
Posts: 812
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Yea implied odds is what its called i've heard that somewhere before thanks, is there anywhere with a detailed description of how to play them, or some sort of odds chart?
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thnl
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: alaska usa
Posts: 46
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there are plenty of charts, and essays on the homepage of ftr. and the odds percentage is more like 31% so even current pot odds justify the bet
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Humphrind
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 1,887
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What are the stakes at the table? This will be the main factor to determine implied odds.
If you are in a $.05/$.10 table a $2 bet is big and you probably won't be able to get the implied odds. If you are at a $.10/$.25 table or greater, with more than 2 people in the pot, you will be able to get your implied odds.
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I don't know what they have to say
It makes no difference anyway.
Whatever it is...
I'm against it.
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Humphrind
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 1,887
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thnl
there are plenty of charts, and essays on the homepage of ftr. and the odds percentage is more like 31% so even current pot odds justify the bet
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After the turn (as staple gun said) the pot odds are 19.6%, close to 20%.
Even if he was talking about after the flop, with odds of about 35%, you don't have the odds, cause you will have to call a bet that is 50% of the pot size. so you don't have pot odds, but you probably have implied odds, depending on the table.
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I don't know what they have to say
It makes no difference anyway.
Whatever it is...
I'm against it.
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Krapp
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 313
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Humphrind
Even if he was talking about after the flop, with odds of about 35%, you don't have the odds, cause you will have to call a bet that is 50% of the pot size. so you don't have pot odds
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He mentioned that there were 2-bets in front of him ($2 each), the bettor and caller in a $2 pot already. So thats a $6 pot, giving him 2:1 or 33% pot odds on the flop, I believe.
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fishstick
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Carlsbad, CA
Posts: 1,405
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Humphrind
What are the stakes at the table? This will be the main factor to determine implied odds.
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also - what the board looks like. if it's the type of board that could really have helped someone (e.g. overs, str draw, etc.), your implied odds go way up.
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i hate what i have become to escape what i hated being...
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Legendash
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Full House
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Crypto 6max 100NL
Posts: 611
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I'll beat fnord to this one and say read theory of poker by Sklansky, it has a whole chapter on implied odds and they are especially important in no limit due to the amount you can increase the betting by when you hit.
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thnl
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: alaska usa
Posts: 46
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Humphrind
Quote:
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Originally Posted by thnl
there are plenty of charts, and essays on the homepage of ftr. and the odds percentage is more like 31% so even current pot odds justify the bet
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After the turn (as staple gun said) the pot odds are 19.6%, close to 20%.
Even if he was talking about after the flop, with odds of about 35%, you don't have the odds, cause you will have to call a bet that is 50% of the pot size. so you don't have pot odds, but you probably have implied odds, depending on the table. |
yeah your right i must have missed that he mentioned it was after the turn not flop my bad but like krapp said if it was the flop it wouldve been 33% putting pot odds in your favor not that it matters since were mainly talking about implied pot odds just wanted to clarify if thats correct
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