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Are pot odds really that important?

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Shadowskills

10-05-2004, 05:14 PM Post subject: Are pot odds really that important?

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2004

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Are pot odds really that important? I use mainly tells against players.

I haven't really practiced but for now, pot odds are hard for me to calculate on the fly.

Don't ya'll think that tells are more useful then pot odds?

Sorry for sounding ignorant. I'm still a student of the game.

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koolmoe

10-05-2004, 05:32 PM

#2 (permalink)

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Of course they're important.

Suppose you knew you opponent was ahead of you, but you could outdraw him. How would you decide whether to call? Pot odds.

Suppose you knew you were ahead of your opponent in a NL game and wanted to decide how much to bet to get him to make a bad call. Pot odds.

Tells and hand reading only give you a rough idea of the strength of your opponents' hands. Pot odds help you decide which action is profitable. You need them both.

10-05-2004, 05:50 PM

#3 (permalink)

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Shadowskills

10-05-2004, 07:24 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Posts: 62

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/Pot%20odds

Hmmm....that's a different pot odds method than described here:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/start_pot_odds.html

johnnyawe

10-05-2004, 11:46 PM

#5 (permalink)

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I would say pot odds are about 120,000 times more important than tells. Possibly more.

There is 1 person at my home game who is constantly telling me how to play poker. He has lost money at every single game he has attended. I have been the most consistent winner at this game.

This guy does not understand pot odds. He constantly ridicules me for making big bets when I have something like top pair but the board shows 2 suited or three to a straight. "how could you bet that much when someone could have a chance to make a flush?" He thinks its prudent to wait until all the cards come out before he starts betting big.

He also has caught on that I will count how much money is in the pot when deciding how much to bet or call. He made a point to tell me during the game that this was a stupid practice and would only be useful when playing againt good players that bet "how they are supposed to". A couple days after the game, I told him that the concept of pot odds applies no matter who you are playing against, that determining the strength of your opponent's hand is only one part of the game, and you need to know the pot odds in order to use that information correctly. He just shook his head and said that I am "too used to playing online".

Now, believe me, no matter how many obvious tells I am giving off, I am going to beat this guy 9 out of every 10 sessions. If you have no clue how to play the game, then tells mean absolutely nothing.

|~|ypermegachi

10-06-2004, 12:11 AM

#6 (permalink)

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all tells does is slightly adjust your pot odds. if any of you haven't read theory of poker, i strongly suggest you to read it.

if you're on a flush draw you're about 35% to hit it on the turn or river. now just based on pot odds if your opponent's bet is say 45 bucks for a 100 pot, then you should fold just on pot odds. but if they give a tell making you think they are bluffing 50% of the time, 50% of 20% is 22.5%. so you would expect you would win this 57.5% of the time instead of 35%, thus it's worth the call now.

i hope i didn't screw up my explanation, ToP is very complicated stuff. but you guys get the gist of it...

BTW, this example ignores effective and implied odds, and those affect your decisions as well.

effective = future bets you may have to call which you need to calculate, and of course chances opponent may try to bluff you down again.

implied = you shouldn't be calling this, but if you get a monster the huge pot you take down is worth it. simple example would be a lower pocket pair looking to flop a set.

EDIT: changed percentages because i screwed up the flush draw.[/b]

Shadowskills

10-06-2004, 12:13 AM

#7 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2004

Posts: 62

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheNatural

I would say pot odds are about 120,000 times more important than tells. Possibly more.

So which method of calculating pot odds do you use?

http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/Pot%20odds

or

http://www.flopturnriver.com/start_pot_odds.html

They look different to me. If they are the same, and I read it wrong, forgive my ignorance.

johnnyawe

10-06-2004, 12:13 AM

#8 (permalink)

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megachi, that makes perfect sense.

10-06-2004, 12:13 AM

#9 (permalink)

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johnnyawe

10-06-2004, 12:15 AM

#10 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Shadowskills

So which method of calculating pot odds do you use?

This one.

|~|ypermegachi

10-06-2004, 12:24 AM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

Quote:

Originally Posted by hypermegachi

if you're on a flush draw you're about 20% to hit it

9 (Flush draw) 35.0%

http://www.flopturnriver.com/chart_pot_odds.html

LOL i'm glad i didn't play any poker today.

twosevoff

10-06-2004, 12:25 AM

#12 (permalink)

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Join Date: May 2004

Posts: 526

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

Quote:

Originally Posted by hypermegachi

if you're on a flush draw you're about 20% to hit it

9 (Flush draw) 35.0%

http://www.flopturnriver.com/chart_pot_odds.html

I think that's including the turn and river though. So you're about 17% to connect on the turn and 17% on the river.

10-06-2004, 12:27 AM

#13 (permalink)

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Shadowskills

10-06-2004, 12:27 AM

#14 (permalink)

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Thanks all!

I'll get on studying pot odds.

How long did it take you guys to get your pot odds down on the fly? In other words, how long did it take you to get good enough to calculate pot odds during a round?

|~|ypermegachi

10-06-2004, 12:35 AM

#15 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Shadowskills

ok i'm re-editing this entire post...

lazy mans way = 2% per out for next card. 4% per out for next 2 cards.

i was just comparing some formulas and i've come up with something that's accurate and easy to remember.

so here's for next 2 cards
1-10 outs = (outs * 4)
1x outs = (outs * 4) - x

for example, 15 would be (15*4)-5, and 18 would be (18*4)-8. this doesn't get accurate past 20 outs tho. but when you have that much you should win anyways.

and for 1 card to come the general formula would be (outs * 2) + x. at 10 outs x would be 1, at 5 outs x=0.5, at 15 outs x=1.5, etc.

DaNutsInYoEye

10-06-2004, 12:49 AM

#16 (permalink)

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My answer is basically the same as hypermegachi, but slightly simpler. The easiest way (was for me anyways) to calculate pot odds when you are first learning how if to first figure out how many outs you have. Multiply this number by two (x2) to figure out your chance of hitting on the next card, and by four (x4) to figure out your chance if you were going to see two more cards.

So with the four flush on the flop example you have 9 outs. Your chance of getting another card of the suit you need on the turn is 9x2=18%. If you see it to the river you have a 9x4=36% chance. These numbers aren't quite the exact odds but are pretty darn close for just beginning. After doing it for awhile you'll be able to instantly know what your odds are just because you have been in the same situation so many times before.

Once I became profficient enough at this I just memorized the odds chart to fine tune the percentages.

TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?

pokerfanatic

10-06-2004, 01:54 AM

#17 (permalink)

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Quote:

I would say pot odds are about 120,000 times more important than tells. Possibly more.

Well it depends on the type game... live, limit or no limit/ online limit/ no limit...

This is just my opinion but I don't use pot odds all too much in no limit live but I do use then limit live/ all online play...

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koolmoe

10-06-2004, 01:21 PM

#18 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Shadowskills

The best quick and dirty way I have found is to take the number of outs you have and subtract it from 13 to get the odds for hitting your draw on the next card. This holds up for most common draws (between about 5 and 9 outs).

9 outs = 4:1 (flush draw)
8 outs = 5:1 (open ended straight draw)
7 outs = 6:1 (gutshot + one overcard)
6 outs = 7:1 (two overcards)
5 outs = 8:1 (improve one pair to two pair or trips)

The way I most commonly use is to multiply my outs by the ratio of the pot to the bet. If the total is greater than the number of cards to come, then I have odds to call.

Example: $10 in the pot, $1 bet to me on the flop. I figure I have 6 outs (two overcards), so $10/$1*6 = 60 > 47 - 6 = 41 unhelpful cards, so I call. If it were raised and the bet were $2, then $10/$2*6 = 30 < 47 - 6 = 41, so I fold.

This method is easy to use in limit play, since the pot is usually a pretty even multiple of the bet you have to call.

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