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Pot Odds Implied odds - Turn versus River

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davekp2003

03-07-2009, 12:10 PM Post subject: Pot Odds Implied odds - Turn versus River

#1 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: May 2005

Posts: 81

I generally play pretty tight on the flop and if I'm not getting the "right" pot odds on the flop I'll fold before the turn. For bets on the flop I was only taking into account the next card not planning on seeing the river card. For example if I had an open ended straight draw (8 outs) I'd require odds of 5-1 in order to call. Should I be using pot odds similar to those as to what you would require on the turn or should I use odds of 3-1 with the thought of you have two more cards to see.

Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

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loonychune

03-07-2009, 02:58 PM

#2 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jan 2009

Posts: 145

I think the answer to your question is: It depends if he's going to bet the next street. In no-limit you rarely get the immediate pot odds to catch your draw.

When you're a 5-1 underdog to make your hand on the next street, you will generally only call if you expect to make more money from your opponent on later streets if you do hit your hand.

E.g. Pot is $20, you are in position and have your opponent's $70 stack covered. He bets $10 on the flop into you and you've got a straight draw which hits 1 in 6 times (so you're a 5-1 underdog to hit). Now, you're only getting 3:1 on the pot, which means if your opponent isn't going to put any more money in the pot if you hit, that you can't call:

You win $30 at the cost of $10 1 in 6 times, while you lose $10 the other 5 times... which means you're losing $20 overall.

BUT... if your opponent will pay you off on later streets, then you are getting 3:1 on the pot AND $60:$10 = 6:1 on the rest of his stack. So if you hit on the turn you're getting 6 + 3 : 1 = 9:1.

You win $90 1 in every 6 times but lose just $10 the other 5 times.. which is a $40 profit.

I think the best way to approach pot odds and implied odds is to make street by street considerations. Work out what it is costing you to hit on the next street and how much more you think you can extract from your opponent if you do hit. If you miss on the turn, make the same considerations for the river.

In the example below, i'm getting 3.5-1 on the pot on the turn to catch my flush draw, which isn't enough. But, even though the board is a little bit scary, I expect to win if I hit a good % of the time. My odds of hitting the flush are 4.1-1 so i need to make some more money on later streets. In fact, since I need 4.1-1, I need the effective pot to be $4.10 to be able to call... it's $3.50 on the turn so I need to make an extra $0.60 out of him on the turn -- which I pretty much always expect to do.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($24.75)
BB ($30.95)
UTG ($24.75)
UTG+1 ($15.85)
MP1 ($28.75)
MP2 ($6.35)
CO ($26.10)
Hero (Button) ($32.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A

, Q

3 folds, MP2 bets $0.50, CO calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, SB calls $0.40, BB calls $0.25

Flop: ($2.50) K

, 9

, 10

(5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($2.50) 9

(5 players)
SB bets $1, 3 folds, Hero calls $1

River: ($4.50) 4

(2 players)
SB bets $1.50

Total pot: $13.50 | Rake: $0.65

EDIT: I rarely ever consider my 2-street odds, unless my opponent bets All-In on the flop where you're guaranteed 2 cards to hit.

Also, in the above example, i'm getting better than 4.1-1 but let's forget about the gutshot straight draw for the sake of example.

xpaand

03-07-2009, 07:07 PM

#3 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2009

Location: Vancouver

Posts: 289

Hmm nice post looney. You did a good job explaining that concept.

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If I bet as a bluff, I should be thinking "am I getting better hands to fold? Is it likely that he will fold x% of the time to a y sized bet to make it +EV?". If I bet for value, I should be thinking "am I getting worst hands to call? Am I ahead of enough of his range that this is a good value bet?".

loonychune

03-07-2009, 10:45 PM

#4 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jan 2009

Posts: 145

Thanks xpaand

davekp2003

03-08-2009, 04:19 PM

#5 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: May 2005

Posts: 81

now that i think about it, the question is a bit like, which hands are good to open with.

oskar

03-08-2009, 04:30 PM

#6 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Apr 2008

Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz

Posts: 2,452

I would rather see a couple of examples. It would take way too long going through all the possible spots.
Basically you can call looser:
If you are deep.
If your draw is not obvious. (double gutter, backdoor... not AT on 789, or the nut flush on a monotone board)
If your opponent is likely to have a hand. - Consider raising otherwise.
If you're most likely to draw live (A

on 7

as opposed to 5

on the same board, or any low flush or sucker straight draw multi-way)
If the relative stack size is less than the pot after your call.

In no limit you're almost never getting the right pot odds... but the implied odds are often good. You just have to learn how much you can realistically get out of your opponent if you hit.

davekp2003

03-09-2009, 12:17 PM

#7 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: May 2005

Posts: 81

Oskar, thanks a lot that broke things out for me really well. Can you please expand on the last line regarding relative stack size versus pot size.

I'm not following bankroll management as well as I should. I was grinding it out at the $10nl with a $100 bankroll. Once the NFL season ends I put $50 in and typically am able to withdraw $400 or $500 come May, just in time for a lil family trip. In the past I started out at the $25nl tables bringing $8-$10 to the table, (i know i know terrible bankroll management) however i quickly doubled my bankroll playing a few hours at the $25nl tables as opposed to decent but minimal returns at the $10nl tables. I've found the play at the $25nl to be 1) much looser then at the $10nl tables, 2) players to be much more willing to call down a bet then at the $10nl tables. Is this just me? Lucky table selection??? I told my friend who is a major Nitt and plays at the $10nl tables that there are too many guys like him there to make any money.
I know this is a bit different then my previous quetions but just thought I'd through this out there. Love to talk poker and don't get a chance to do it a lot.
Thanks

xpaand

03-09-2009, 06:04 PM

#8 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2009

Location: Vancouver

Posts: 289

Yeah I noticed that too dave. It's like some people who are in micro micro stakes are either scared to death of losing pennies, or are scared to death of being a calling station. Annoying as hell at times if you ask me.

loonychune

03-09-2009, 06:22 PM

#9 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jan 2009

Posts: 145

Quote:

I've found the play at the $25nl to be 1) much looser then at the $10nl tables, 2) players to be much more willing to call down a bet then at the $10nl tables.

I think this is probably true of 25nl. I'm inclined to think that your casual players with a few $ behind them are more likely to gravitate here than 10nl, so the average of all the average pots at 25nl is probably more than 2.5x that of 10nl.

Another thing might be, that it's harder being a tagg than a nit. People are more inclined to steal your blinds and defend at 25nl, but don't adjust when you do.

davekp2003

03-09-2009, 06:52 PM

#10 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: May 2005

Posts: 81

xpand, another thing I found was that pokerstars has much more traffic and loser players then fulltilt. I tried both sites and could not make any traction at fulltilt at all. Nothing seemed to work for me. However at pokerstars I've been able to cash out marginal winnings three times.

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Pot Odds Implied odds - Turn versus River

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