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Pot odds/implied odds example

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chardrian

03-24-2006, 10:12 PM Post subject: Pot odds/implied odds example

#1 (permalink)

I rarely,if ever, get pms

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I don't know how well I explained it in the other thread.

So I am going to explain it with an example.

Char has $100 in Big Blind
Villain has $100 in Small Blind

Blinds are $1/$2

Villain is dealt :Ac: :As:
Char is dealt

Villain raises $4 to $5 preflop
Char calls $3 to $5

The pot now has $10.

Flop comes

:Qc:

Villain bets $10

Char's pot odds calculations. Char has a very good read on the villain so he knows that the villain has at least the Q here and he knows that if he hits his flush or straight the villain will pay him off.

Char knows he has 15 outs: 9 outs for the flush (any heart) + 8 outs for the open end straight draw (any 4 or 9) - 2 outs for the cards that overlap (i.e. you cant count the

and

twice as an out).

Using the quick *2 method Char realizes that he has about a 30% chance to hit one of his out by the turn (it is actually 31.9% when you do the real math: 15 outs/47 unknown cards). So in order to make a good call based on pot odds alone he should be getting about 30% pot odds.

$10 into a $20 pot = 10/30 = 33%. Percentage wise, the pot odds that char is being given are actualy just OVER char's percentage of hitting his next card. So if the hand were to end on the turn, char would actually end up slightly losing in the long run if he were to make this call. However, because he is not getting absolutely horrible odds to chase here and he is confident that the villain will pay him handsomely off if he hits, char calls (this is what implied odds are all about).

The pot now has $30.

The turn is :Ts:

Villain bets $15.

Char still has his same 15 outs. He knows he still has about the same 30% shot (it actually went up a bit because now he has 15 outs/ 46 unkown cards = 32.6%).

Char is now getting 3:1 odds - $15 into a $45 pot. 15/60 = 25%. So char is actually getting pot odds to call here now. The pot odds being offered to char (25%) are UNDER his percentage to actually win the hand on the next (and last) card. In fact char could have called up to almost the pot until the call would start to become a bad play based on pot odds alone.

because Char's percentage to make his hand are over the pot odds percentage he is being given, Char makes an easy call on the turn.

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boost

03-24-2006, 11:11 PM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: Chicago

Posts: 706

I just have a simple question concerning rations..

would I be correct that 6:24 = 1/5 = 20%???

I think thats wwere I keep getting hung up, I just keep reading ratios as fractions, and I dont know why. I have to force it into my head that hte 6 represents 20% and the 24 represnts 80%. Instead I always just read it as a fraction cuz Im a retard and just see 25%, you see what I mean?

chardrian

03-25-2006, 12:54 AM

#3 (permalink)

I rarely,if ever, get pms

Join Date: Apr 2005

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yes I see what you mean.

No you are not a retard.

Yes 6:24 = 1:4 = 1/5 = 20%

http://chardrian.blogspot.com
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jackvance

03-25-2006, 12:45 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Posts: 2,910

jackvance is an unknown quantity at this point

All in all an open-ended straight flush draw has >50% to hit on turn+river.. so it's the best drawing hand to chase. (around 56% to win)

A more common situation of an open-ended straight draw or a flush draw, your opponent would have to bet really low to make it profitable on the turn alone, since there you have only around 16% (straight) or 18% (flush) to hit. So you need some reads on your opp's betting behavior to make more accurate calculations.

Or you can just run off the assumption of similar percentage bets on turn and river for easy calculations. Then if you don't pay more than half the pot you should be good.

(assumption: opp will raise half-pot postflop, postturn and postriver)
pot is $100 postflop, opp raises $50, you call $50

a) 1/6: turn hits your draw, opp raises $100, you call, opp raises $150, you call (or reraise+drop)

b) 1/6: turn doesn't hit your draw, opp raises $100, you call, river hits your draw, (pot now $400) opp raises $200 you call

c) 2/3 you pay $150 to find out it never hits.

So 100% of the time you pay $150 for a 1/3 chance to win $600.. so you're up $150 in the long run here.

Ofcourse part of that initial pot was also yours, just remember there that you need atleast 4 people in the pot to be profitable to play a suited connector hand.

So jack's rule of thumb based on his calculations:
- never play a draw chasing hand (suited connector) with less than 4 people in the pot
- never bet more than half the pot when chasing a draw (open-ended straight or flush)
- in the odd chance of an open-ended straight flush draw, you can bet more than half the pot.
- if you don't think your opp has hit something nice, no need to chase a draw since he's not gonna pay up anyway. Also he and you need to have a large enough stack or you will never get enough payoff anyway.
Early levels in MTT is where a draw is very profitable (stacks huge compared to blinds, lotsa people),
6max is where it sucks (too little chance for pay-off if it hits)

Big Dazz

03-25-2006, 05:55 PM

#5 (permalink)

Join Date: Mar 2006

Location: Portsmouth, England

Posts: 45

Hi,

a question regarding the amount needed to win to make these drawing hands profitable.
Your example doesn't consider that the odds of flopping 2 cards to a flush are 1:8 and the odds to making the flush are another 1:2. Thefore this hand will need implied odds that will make up for the 8 missed flops and 2 missed draws. Correct??

Cheers

elanto

03-25-2006, 06:39 PM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Oct 2004

Posts: 1,117

chardrian just one thing, to find the probability of hitting your hand it is more accurate to multiply times two and add one:

5 Outs 10.64%
6 Outs 12.77%
7 Outs 14.89%
8 Outs 17.02%
9 Outs 19.15%
10 Outs 21.28%
11 Outs 23.40%
12 Outs 25.53%
13 Outs 27.66%
14 Outs 29.79%
15 Outs 31.91%
16 Outs 34.04%
17 Outs 36.17%
18 Outs 38.30%
19 Outs 40.43%
20 Outs 42.55%

so as the # of outs increases you even have too 1.5 or 2, but since most scenarios include 8-12 outs its more accurate to multpily times 2 and add one that simply multiplying times 2

<dwarfman> No I had sex for the first time on 23rd March 2005 at 11.56pm.

euphoricism

03-25-2006, 06:49 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Quote:

Your example doesn't consider that the odds of flopping 2 cards to a flush are 1:8 and the odds to making the flush are another 1:2.

This is not an accurate statement, which may have something to do with your confusion.

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jackvance

03-25-2006, 07:07 PM

#8 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2006

Posts: 2,910

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Dazz

a question regarding the amount needed to win to make these drawing hands profitable.
Your example doesn't consider that the odds of flopping 2 cards to a flush are 1:8 and the odds to making the flush are another 1:2. Thefore this hand will need implied odds that will make up for the 8 missed flops and 2 missed draws. Correct??

These pot odd calculations are mainly for "when you're already there" (for whatever reason)

That is why I said don't go for suited connectors unless 4+ people in the pot. This comes from calculations. At 4 people (including you) in the pot, calling with a suited connector becomes 'slightly favorable', at 5 and more people, it's a good idea. If you start with a suited connectors, here are your odds:

11%, 1/9 (1:8): straight draw
11%, 1/9 (1:8): flush draw
5%, 1/20 (1:19): something good (2 pair, flush, straight, 4 of a kind, full house,..)

Big Dazz

03-26-2006, 01:10 PM

#9 (permalink)

Join Date: Mar 2006

Location: Portsmouth, England

Posts: 45

Quote:

That is why I said don't go for suited connectors unless 4+ people in the pot.

Ok. My reply seems to have been submitted out of synch as your post was not there when I submitted - i was replying to the original posting - but no matter. Yes I see what your saying - at least 5 callers + implied odds.

Thanks

jackvance

03-26-2006, 06:01 PM

#10 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2006

Posts: 2,910

Please note that this comes from math.. which I'm good at.. poker however I'm still an aspiring player. So take these as guidelines, in practice you should trust your reads and look at each case individually.. plus there are often other things to consider too at the same time etc. I'm still working on figuring out all those parameters myself

Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity

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