Originally Posted by Monty3038

1208/483 = 2.5 to 1 for pot odds, as Robb clarified, so that is my number. Ok, I see that 5 to 2 is the same as 2.5 to one, but where does the 2/7 equity come from?

Originally Posted by Monty3038

The way I see it, I have 6 outs... hitting a J or 6. There is no straight draw for me pre-flop, no flush draw, so I have 6 cards out of 5 remaining, roughly 12% of the deck, with at least two opportunities that makes it about 24%?

Originally Posted by Monty3038

So I have about a 24% chance, with about 5 to 2 pot odds, which I calculate to 40% needed to call... or am I missing something critical here?

Originally Posted by kmind

Monty - first of all much and didn't mean to be an ass during the tourney.

2.5:1 = 28.6% (1/3.5) equity. Then you have to calculate your hand vs. a range in which pokerstove helps you out with. The ranges have been defined already.

I think I see your problem. You just divided 2/5 but that's not how you get to percentages. I hope you can see how I did it.

Originally Posted by Robb

If you're getting 5 to 2 pot odds, you need to have at least a 2 in 7 chance of winning for the call to be profitable. Every 7 times this occurs, you'll need to win 2 while villain wins 5 (2 to 5). So, provided you feel you have a probability of 2/7 or 28.5% of winning, you should call.

How do we figure out what your probability of winning is? Well, the easiest way is to use PokerStove which makes equity estimates based on a range of hands villain could have and the specific cards Hero holds. The Stove has the nice feature that when you type "30%" (or whatever percentage you're interested in), it pops up the top 30% of hands based on their all-in equity. Which is precisely what we're interested in here.

So based on pot odds, we know we need AT LEAST 28.5% equity to call. Both Badger and I used PokerStove simulations to estimate Hero's equity. Both of agree Hero has at least 30% equity (or overall chance of winning) against conservative estimates of villain's potential holdings.

We use PokerStove for this. Remember, even if he has AK, you can win by pairing your J or 6 as long as no A or K hits the board. You're not even that dominated. J6 has a 33% equity against AK, i.e. wins about 1/3 of the time.

This is the odds vs. percentage misunderstanding that's so ubiquitous. When we say you have 5 to 2 pot odds, that's like having a pot of $500 and needing $200 to call a bet. You don't have to win 40% of the time because you're only putting in 28.5% of the total money. After your call, the pot is $500 + $200 = $700. Your bet is 2/7 of the total. So you only have to win 2 out of 7 times this occurs to break even.

In our example, say that 7 times in row you call $200. Twice,you win, taking down a $700 pot ($1,400 total). You've broken even, despite losing 5 of 7 showdowns.

Originally Posted by Monty3038

Thanks Robb this helps... I don't use PokerStove much, but I'm trying to figure it out. The 30% goes into which field for setting their percentage of called hands, i'm not in front of it (at work now) so I am winging it... there is a field for known cards and equity, but the equity is what it calculates right?