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Pot Odds... again

  
 
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7star
Old 03-28-2006, 08:38 PM     Post subject: Pot Odds... again #1 (permalink)  

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7star
I prefer the method of figuring your percentage of hitting your cards by (your outs) x 4 at the turn and x 2 at the river. That gives you a percentage.

2 Questions:
1. So is there a handy way to figure the percentage for your pot odds (not a ratio) or do I have to memorize a chart?

2. Do you compare those 2 percentages to find out if you should bet or not? Like if your percentage of hitting your cards is higher than your pot odds you should bet, right???

Note:
I usually play NL hold'em tournaments where you buy in and pay out is to the top 5. The chips are usually 25, 50, 100, 500. So the number should be easier but I can't figure this out. Thanks for the help.
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jackvance
Old 03-28-2006, 08:57 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 To put it very simply:

- Don't play suited connectors unless there are atleast 4 people (including you) in the pot
- If you're ever chasing a draw (straight or flush), NEVER pay more than half the pot.
- In theory you could pay more, like up to a pot sized bet, but in practice don't go higher unless you have some more outs (like a gut-shot, ie you're on a flush-draw but one card (=4 outs) would give you a straight too) AND your opponent has a big enough stack to pay you off when it hits.

You can take these as rules and thumbs and adjust in real play.
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chardrian
Old 03-28-2006, 09:22 PM #3 (permalink)  
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There is no chart to figure your pot odds. It's just basic math.

the amount you have to call/total pot + your call (or what the total pot would be if you called)

example: guy bets $8 into a $10 pot. You have to call 8 into a now 18 pot. 6/26 is a little less than 25%.

If you have 12 outs or more you are fine to call here just on the turn alone becuase your chances of hitting your outs are better than your pot odds.
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7star
Old 03-29-2006, 01:33 PM #4 (permalink)  

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Chardian-
Nice picture....

Wouldn't the fraction be 8/26? Your call/ the pot + your call? I'm still a little confused. I guess I need to learn how to make fractions into percentages.
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Pelion
Old 03-29-2006, 01:43 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7star
Chardian-
Nice picture....

Wouldn't the fraction be 8/26? Your call/ the pot + your call? I'm still a little confused. I guess I need to learn how to make fractions into percentages.
Nope.

You dont count the amount you add to the pot since that isnt an amount you win.

e.g. you bet me $1 a coin will come up heads. You have a 50% chance of winning.

50% of the time you lose your $1. 50% of the time you win my $1

So it is a break even bet (pretty obvious)

Doing it your way would be 50% of the time you lose your $1.
50% of the time you win your $1 + my $1 for a profit of $2.

If you keep making this bet you will make an average profit of

0.50 x ($1+$1) - 0.50 x $1 = $0.50

You make an average of 50c every time you bet. This is clearly wrong.
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arkana
Old 03-29-2006, 02:05 PM #6 (permalink)  
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7star,

Yes it should be 8/26 and not 6/26, chardrian just made a typo I think. BTW i think you mean you have problems turning odds into percentages and not fractions into percentages.

Pelion,

When you are calculating pot odds as a percentage\fraction then you do add the amount you have to call to the pot. So if the pot is $18 and you have to call $8 then you need to win 8/(18+8)=30.77% of the time to break even. With odds you dont, your pot odds are 18:8.

Your coin example would give your pot odds as a percentage as 1/2 which is 50%. So you need to win 50% of the times to break even. Your pot odds though are 1:1.

Quote:
Doing it your way would be 50% of the time you lose your $1.
50% of the time you win your $1 + my $1 for a profit of $2.

If you keep making this bet you will make an average profit of

0.50 x ($1+$1) - 0.50 x $1 = $0.50
We are talking about pot odds as a percentage, to calculate your percentage you have to divide by pot + amount to call. This doesn't mean that you win pot + amount to call when you win so I dont know what you are trying to say.

Its the same thing, just a different way of representing it.

Odds

For odds of winning the hand it is
(bad outcomes) : (good outcomes)

For what the pot is offering you it is
(amount in the pot) : (amount to call)

Percentages\Fractions

For your chance of winning it is
(bad outcomes) / (good outcomes + bad outcomes)

For what the pot is offering you it is
(amount to call) / (amount in pot + amount to call)
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chardrian
Old 03-29-2006, 05:24 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Sorry about the typo - yes it is 8/26 to figure the PERCENTAGE.

And it is 9:4 in terms of a RATIO.
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