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dunowhut
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06-01-2007, 01:05 AM
Post subject: Pot odd question
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 21
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i have been reading dan harrington's book on tournament games. I came across this problem.
say we start the hand with 10 A..and someone else have 77..flop completety miss both of us..so i have 6 out for the turn and river combine to beat his 77..6 outs is about 24% to win..say 25% to make things more simple..so i have to get 1:4 odds to call if he raises me..but in dan harrington's book it says that we only need 1:3 odds to call if we have two over card to his pair..am i missing something?
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dsmrolla06
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: South Bend IN
Posts: 724
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3 to 1 is correct. 75% of the time you wont make it, and 25% of the time you will. When you say 3 to 1 its saying the same thing, 3/4 times you wont make it, 1/4 you will.
If your 20% to hit your hand you need 4 to 1 odds or better to draw profitably.
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dunowhut
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 21
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well..that means 20%..the odds are 20/(100-20)..which is 1 to 4..
let say im on a flush draw with 9 outs..the percentage to hit is around 35%..the odds are 35/(100-35) = 1 to 1.85..that doesnt seem right as if the person raise the pot..i have 1 to 2 odds to call..and everyone will be chasing flushes..
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dunowhut
well..that means 20%..the odds are 20/(100-20)..which is 1 to 4..
let say im on a flush draw with 9 outs..the percentage to hit is around 35%..the odds are 35/(100-35) = 1.85 to 1..that doesnt seem right as if the person raise the pot..i have 1 to 2 odds to call..and everyone will be chasing flushes..
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FYP. That make more sense?
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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dont get into the habit of calculating odds ...to the river... in a NL game. you cannot accurately estimate the turn bet, and that ruins the odds you just calculated. how do you know your villain wont check the turn? or bet the pot? or 1/2 the pot? all those change your pot odds on the turn, and you havent even gotten to that point yet.
easier to take your odds...to the next card...twice. recalculating each time.
flush is 9 outs...on the flop...you have 18-20% chance to hit on next card. you need 4:1. you miss...on the turn...you still have 18-20% to hit on next card. you still need 4:1. whatever miniscule percentage you miscalculate between "to the turn" and "to the river" calculations, you will make up for in implied odds anyway, imo. just easier that way.
in limit, you can do a better job at guessing/controlling the betting, and can therefore calculate "to the river" with more accuracy.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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welcome, btw.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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dunowhut
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 21
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haha..4 to 1? haha..no one will ever get odds to chase flush then..thx for your reply..i think i understand it better now..
but if someone goes all-in on the flop and i have a flush draw..and im getting at least 1.85 to 1 for my money..the call is justified right??
thx again
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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no, you need 4:1. period.
that is why chasing a flush draw needs mulitple callers. that is where your 4 comes from. assuming there is no money in the pot at this point...someone bets...one guy calls...another calls...another calls...and you are now "in the black" to call. if the other 3 callers are also on flush draws...THEY MADE MISTAKES. only you, acting last, made the correct call.
you shouldnt chase draws when you are HU, unless you know for a fact that you will continue to get paid enough to justify the cost after you hit (those are implied odds). chasing without proper odds is the fastest way to go broke. you simply, do not hit the flush often enough to make up for the money you spend trying.
if some guy pushes his last $2 into a $6 pot...making it an $8 pot... now you may call if you are HU...because you have your odds...you only need to call $2 to win what would now become $10...actually 5:1. that is why you dont play short-stacked, if possible. you need to stay deep enough in chips to keep forcing your opponents to call UNPROFITABLY. why do you think we recommend betting 2/3 to full pot-sized bets when you are trying to protect your, at the moment, winning hand? in the same HU $6 pot...you have the TPTK, and bet out $2...your opponent SHOULD CALL, especially if you have more money in your stack (potential implied odds to get more money out of you). however, if you bet $4...making the pot $10...your opponent needs to call $4 to win $14, barely better than 3:1...HE MADE A MISTAKE. see?
however, if there were more players, and you bet out $4...making it $10...the first guy makes the mistake of calling...making it $14...the next guy calls his $4 to win $18 (see those odds?)...the 2nd caller made a correct call (better than 4:1).
thats one of the fundamentals of poker. i would seriously consider doing the math...or reading a book...if you doubt what i tell you. i am not a pro, but i aint stoopid, either. hope that clears it up a bit.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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dunowhut
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 21
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hey chopper..thx for ur reply..
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Taxi
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Lincoln, UK
Posts: 226
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Heads up, facing an all-in on the flop, surely you only need the 1.85-1 odds to call? Because we are going to see both the turn and river cards without having to put anymore money in the pot? Were only talking about 4-1 when were only going to see one more card (before more money' going into the pot)
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Taxi
Heads up, facing an all-in on the flop, surely you only need the 1.85-1 odds to call? Because we are going to see both the turn and river cards without having to put anymore money in the pot? Were only talking about 4-1 when were only going to see one more card (before more money' going into the pot)
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good point, and you are prolly correct.
but that does not change the fact that calling a push HU with only a draw is pretty stupid, imo, no matter the odds.
if i have $100 and push into a $85 pot...making it $185, are you going to call with your remaining $100 with 78s and two of your suit? i mean, why not? you have your odds, right? is that situation a no-brainer?
to me, it is... its a fold. dont put good money in bad situations. even if you have the odds. the players we play, at just about any level, are not so good that you cannot wait for a "better opportunity" to get your chips in the middle.
just one guy's opinion, tho.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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Taxi
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Lincoln, UK
Posts: 226
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I was just talking from a maths point of view, that sort of situation depends on all sorts (reads / texture / etc). However, surely if we believe our flush will be good at showdown then its a call?
Hmmmmmm sorry I'm just tryin to work this out in my head - kinda thinking out loud here. Obv our flush isn't going to bethe best hand at showdown all the time, so we need better than the 1.85-1 odds to call, so the situation you outlined is probably a fold, other situaltions its a call (such as AQs with TP or something...)
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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just saying that i wouldnt call a push w/o a MONSTER draw. 15+ outs. like a straight, flush, and overcards to a better TP. something that i am almost better than 50/50 to hit.
somebody willing to push, usually (not always), has something they are hoping holds up. current TP, two pair, set, etc.
as for the situation at hand, i feel you still have to be cautious...at lower levels...a set can pair the board and boat up while completing the flush...and sets like to push on flushy boards to protect their hand and get it over with before someone sucks out.
granted, you were talking tournament strategy..which means you need to take into consideration stack sizes...yours and villains. if you are critically stacked m<10, you may very well call...depending on whether or not you think the deeper stack may be trying to steal with crap.
i would still focus, in tourneys, on being the pusher...not the pushee. much tougher to call the push than be the one doing the pushing...and forcing villains to make a decision about how they compare to your hand.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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