|
linker33
|
03-10-2004, 04:23 PM
Post subject: post flop odds
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 54
|
|
I was reading under Post flop/pot odds, the calculations for determining post flop odds. Just wondering if I'm doing it right. If I had JJQQ (my 2 cards and what is showing after the flop) , and I was looking for a Q or J on the turn or river, for a full house, would I be correct in that,
43/47 * 42/46
.0851064 * .0869566
= .0074005
= .074% on the Q showing on the turn or river
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
Bite
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 113
|
|
The odds of either a jack or a queen falling on any of the two remaining cards are:
(1-(43/47*42/46))*100%= 16,5%. I think this is correct. Please, anyone correct me if I'm wrong.
|
|
|
|
codemachine
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Undisclosed
Posts: 87
|
|
But the odds of a Q or J showing up on turn or river decrease if one shows in your hand or the flop as there are now fewer Q's or J's available for the turn or river.... so I dunno. I knew I should have paid more attention in Stat 50...
|
|
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
cod3machin3
-=insert witty, thought provoking comment here=-
|
|
Bite
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 113
|
|
Off course the odds change depending on how many shows. I was assuming that there was two queens and two jacks left unseen in the deck or someone elses pocket = 4outs.
|
|
|
|
crazyeddie
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: VA
Posts: 97
|
|
If you have QJ and the flop comes QJ2 (let's say all hearts). You think the other guy has a flush, and you want to know whether to call his bet.
You have four outs to make your full house. (two more jacks and two more queens.)
Your odds of getting on the turn OR the river= odds of getting on turn + odds of NOT getting on turn AND getting on river
Odds of getting on turn= 4 cards that help/47 unseen= 4/47= 0.08511
Odds of NOT getting on turn= 1 - 0.08511= .91489
Odds of getting on river= 4 cards that help/46 unseen= 4/46= 0.08696
0.08511 + (.91489)*(0.08696) =0.16467= 16.47%
Pot should be greater than 5x the bet for you to call.
|
|
|
|
crazyeddie
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: VA
Posts: 97
|
|
For the record, bite's way works, too. He is just calculating the odds that you DON'T get your card on the turn AND DON'T get your card on the river and subtracting that value from 1.
Rather than do all this messy math, just memorize this table
|
|
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by crazyeddie
Pot should be greater than 5x the bet for you to call.
|
Wrong. Implied pot odds fall into this call. Since a flush has a good chance of calling down a paired board if the money is deep enough you can call on very marginal pot odds looking to put down a big bet if you make your boat. Also, you need to consider the chance your opponent is drawing with just a Ace of Hearts, in which case your two pair is good until that 4rth Heart comes up.
If you're drawing to a deceptivly strong hand and there is a player with a likely second best hand that will pay you off, implied pot odds apply.
|
|
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
Linear Mode
