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Possibly busted KK, turn action?

  
 
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Gobbatino
Old 05-31-2009, 05:24 PM     Post subject: Possibly busted KK, turn action? #1 (permalink)  
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Gobbatino
Absolute/UB Cereus No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Absolute/UB Cereus Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($22.18)
SB ($29.45)
BB ($20)
UTG ($7.66)
MP ($7.52)
CO ($11.81)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, K
UTG calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero bets $0.50, 1 fold, BB calls $0.40, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.15) 4, 7, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.70, BB calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.55) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.10, BB raises to $6, Hero ????

Right, Villain here is 28/6/0.3 through 50 hands or so. When he reraised, considering he was normally so passive and the flat call on the flop, the turn I knew my kings could be dead to a set or two pair. Call and c/c river? c/f river? After all he could have floated AJ, KJ, QJ due to the low flop, thinking I may have missed too - he could even be betting a flush draw? I'm a bit lost (obviously).
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Old 05-31-2009, 10:43 PM #2 (permalink)  
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he can beat kings
he doesn't have any hands in his range he would play this way that lose to kings just fold
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Micro2Macro
Old 06-01-2009, 12:23 AM     Post subject: Re: Possibly busted KK, turn action? #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gobbatino
Right, Villain here is 28/6/0.3 through 50 hands or so. When he reraised, considering he was normally so passive and the flat call on the flop, the turn I knew my kings could be dead to a set or two pair. Call and c/c river? c/f river? After all he could have floated AJ, KJ, QJ due to the low flop, thinking I may have missed too - he could even be betting a flush draw? I'm a bit lost (obviously).
Folding to his check raise is the only thing you should be thinking about after considering all the information available.

This guy is NOT thinking at all about trying to 'outmaneuver you', he's clearly playing hit to win poker given his too loose preflop and too passive postflop stats. Sample is small, but it is still enough to paint the picture a bit on what he's like. (i.e not postionally aware, not aggressive, etc)

There's no way he's 'floating Jx' and c/r (bluffing/semi/bluffing wtf?) against you. If he has Jx, decided to peel one an hit on the turn. he will CALL down not raise. If he raises you with a hand that beats you so what, he clearly is never making a move like that very often so even if you DID have the best hand and folded, you're too often crushed. We can safely say his range is 100% for value here imo, but even if we say he's bluffing like 20% of the time you still need to fold.

There will be times where you get bluffed of your hand, but you just have to accept it. This guy has you crushed way too often, so you should feel very, very good about folding here. Calling because he 'might' be bluffing is evidence of letting emotion into your play and not objectively thinking about villain's range and what the best course of action versus that range would be.

I probably bet turn a little smaller too fwiw.
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Micro2Macro
Old 06-01-2009, 12:23 AM     Post subject: Re: Possibly busted KK, turn action? #4 (permalink)  
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 [double post] - mod can delete this one please
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

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Robb
Old 06-01-2009, 01:28 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 I think the key is that the pot is 200bb deep. Stacking off with an overpair this deep is dicey when the board is this dry, even at 10nl, without a read he's a total feesh. He possibly does this with QQ, but the rest of his range his way ahead.

Bet/fold the turn, like micro says, bet a bit smaller and get away from it when raised or to a big river bet if the turn checks through.
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Gobbatino
Old 06-01-2009, 07:10 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Thanks guise. I did call the turn and he went all in on the river. I folded that and he showed a flopped set. I felt pretty good about folding the river, given that a week ago I'd have been calling and cursing the gods for the "cooler". Then I thought again and wondered about the turn call. I need to learn to give up these overpairs, it's one of my worst leaks.
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