Originally Posted by Erpel

This hand confuddles me. We have 41bb, villain has 33bb so we're short/medium stacked - villain limp/calls which is horrible with just about any hand with those stack sizes and we raise on the button to 5bb with JTo which doesn't really have enough high card value to stack off unimproved and doesn't get the odds to improve with the price that we're setting. But at least we have position and can steal some of the time. On the flop we have an SPR of 2.7 and nothing we can continue with. Any money going in commits us, and we're well past the point when we should have made a commitment plan.

In this hand I'd be happy to fold preflop and if I choose to see the flop I'm probably even more likely to overlimp than raise - or if I raise at least raise smaller to like 3.5bb for an SPR around 4 if I think the blinds will still fold to that. As played I might cbet - I have no showdown value and air and can represent the ace on the flop - any ace would have to bet with the draws on the board. Something like b/f flop, c/f turn c/f river. For my cbet I'd bet $0.14. I don't think smaller gets the job done often enough and bigger is just spew. And all that is assuming that my opponent knows how to fold if he's missed. Since he limp/called preflop which is horrible with just about any hand I honestly don't think I'd expect him to find a fold often enough that a cbet is profitable. Limp/call can be indicative of calling station tendencies and the way to win money from calling stations is not to bluff them, but to value bet them when we have hand equity. In this case, we do not have hand equity and probably no fold equity. c/f every street could be good also.

I don't think the posed question is worth considering for a second.

Originally Posted by littleogre

well thats nice but the question is would it have been correct to call his river bet and the answer is yes. Now ducy but before you dismiss a question please understand what the question is i'm not sure why you both think i'm talking about betting the turn wether my turn bet was good or not is a whole other can of worms and is much more difficult to quantify

Originally Posted by tyrn

Sorry you asked about EV so I thought you were asking about drawing odds. The EV of calling a river bet with jack high is close to 0 because you don't even beat a stone cold bluff all the time. The correct answer is not yes to call his river bet, that's the result oriented answer.

Originally Posted by littleogre

ok i will re run the calculation adding more hands but why would he blast me out of the pot if he hit a big hand like a set ?

Originally Posted by iopq

he actually has 78, but ok

Originally Posted by tyrn

assuming villain will not fold.

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

This may be the worst thread in the BC this year. God I can't even read the hand history. Same goes for anything littleogre types. Periods, commas, capital letters, and even thoughts are a good thing man.

Obviously if he you magically know he has a busted draw, and never has a pair with that draw then you call here. Only Kx beats you, and there are many more combos of lesser busted draws than Kx, so it's a LDO obvious call.

HOWEVER, you never know for sure he has a busted draw. It can be part of his range, but it likely is never his entire range. It's a huge mistake to only consider a portion of his range that you beat, and ignore the part of his range that beats you. All so you can make a pretty absurd call.

Originally Posted by littleogre

As far as the hand is concerned it is indeed +ev to call if you can soul read the villain and put him on a busted draw. The problem is it quickly becomes -ev if you add just a few hands to his range. So those that said calling here is bad you were right. Or atleast we would need a very strong read to make a call. Something like villain rarely leads the river with a made hand.

Originally Posted by Erpel

This hand confuddles me.