Originally Posted by littleogre

On the turn i pick up a str8 draw. I would be around 61 percent versus his pf raising range but i think i can shrink his range at this point. I figure he has a big over or a set or maybe a flush draw. So my equity falls to 45. Plenty good enough to call .

Originally Posted by daven

i think you are optimistic.

Turn fold is better than turn call. If you include flush draws in his range then you're uncomfortable with 3 of your perceived 10 outs.
If you don't include flush draws then you don't have odds to call the bet.

pre-flop is fine, flop is marginal but maybe ok. Turn you can consider bet-folding, check-calling with odds, or check-folding.

Originally Posted by daven

i suggest writing down the ranges, as in listing the hands.
also, could yo please define what you mean when you say "my river ev is 0.18", this isn't a criticism - I just want to make sure we're talking about the same thing here.

Anyway, back to the hand. He's raising from the cutoff pre, so his range is wider than 8% if he shows any indication at all to stealing from late position.

Note that the pre-flop equity you are talking about is for all in situations, it is not what you use to make decisions about calling out of position. It's not useless information obviously, but it is not enough to make your decision. For what it's worth I think preflop calling is fine here, but it's not because of having 45.5% equity against his range...

Your flop assessment of the situation is good, he's c-betting most of his range (84% read is gold here) and you're definitely ahead of his range. Whether or not that makes check-call the best line is debatable. This is going to be long enough already though, you should consider the alternatives yourself, maybe start another thread with only the pre-flop and flop as the question.

Turn, you have an open ended straight draw plus you're still drawing to a set. So, before he bets (the bet affects his range significantly) you're ahead of a bunch of his range, against the rest you have likely 10 clean outs (maybe 7) = interesting spot. But, unfortunately, you are still out of position. Note how this makes the hand so much harder to play. What is the best action on this street? again, another thread. But wait until the flop thread is finished, then start another.

Very few villains are barreling here without a hand that beats yours. So, this becomes a pot-odds situation where you expect to have 10-outs - most players know to take a free card here with the flush draw.

10 outs = about 20% chance to hit on the river. You don't have pot odds to make this call. Again, this raises interesting questions on the best actions on both flop and turn.

also, in case you're interested, I just posted an article on full ring pre-flop play from the small blind in my blog/op. Could be worth a read for you? dunno.

Originally Posted by littleogre

it means that on average i loose 18 cents by calling the river bet. Clearly i didn't know it was that bad. I guess his range just doesn't include that many flush draws.

Originally Posted by daven

you wanna get better?
start by writing out the range

e.g. his co steal range could look like
pairs 22+
aces A7+
suited aces
suited connectors
broadways.

Now, which of these does he barrel the turn with? now you have a range against which to base your turn decision. etc.

Originally Posted by littleogre

I think he barrels the turn with big over pairs and sets and sometimes nut flush draws

Originally Posted by littleogre

I will give what he had later. What do you think he had?