|
BILLABONG
|
07-31-2005, 10:49 PM
Post subject: PLEASE VERIFY ODDS
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 102
|
|
I believe when you hold Ax preflop. The odds of flopping a ace is 2.71:1 or about 27%. Can someone please verify this. Thank You
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
|
|
|
|
When you hold Ax preflop you fold preflop.
|
|
|
|
BILLABONG
|
|
3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 102
|
|
Nah, I can dominate with Ax in $1-2 nl becuase I know alot about position plus my post flop skills are great. All I wanted to know was the odds to flopping a ho card. I believe its about 27%
|
|
|
|
AHiltz
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Coldbrook, NS
Posts: 1,589
|
|
The odds of flopping 1 of your two hole cards is about 30%, not 1 particular hole card.
|
|
|
|
BILLABONG
|
|
3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 102
|
|
Well in theory the odds of flopping either or specifically would be around 15% correct? Since your goin to flop both of them the same amount of times .
|
|
|
|
edudlive
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 100NL 6max
Posts: 623
|
|
flopping EXACTLY one pair by pairing a hole card 26.939%
You don't have a 26.939/2 % chance of flopping the Ace though, but I'm not sure how to figure the exact amount.
|
|
|
|
BILLABONG
|
|
3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 102
|
|
Well in theory the odds of flopping either or specifically would be around 15% correct? Since your goin to flop both of them the same amount of times .
|
|
|
|
krimson
|
|
3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 108
|
|
The odds of getting an ace on the flop are 1 - (47*46*45)/(50*49*48) = 17.3%.
The odds of getting an ace on the board (all 5 cards) are 1 - (47*46*45*44*43)/(50*49*48*47*46) = 26%.
|
|
|
|
bob
|
|
08-01-2005, 08:44 AM
Post subject: calculation
|
#9 (permalink)
|
|
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 4
|
|
I assume you're asking about seeing at least one Ace on the flop (you could theoretically hit four of a kind!), there are 3 Aces out there, and 50 unseen cards.
I think the calculation goes:
3/50 + (47/50 x 3/49) + (46/49 x 3/48) = 17.6% chance to pair your Ace on the flop
If you miss the flop:
3/47 + (44/47 x 3/46)= 12.5% to hit on the turn or river
If you miss the flop+turn:
3/46 = 6.5% to hit the river
It's different for exactly a pair of Aces, i.e. pair but not not TOK or FOK.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by edudlive
flopping EXACTLY one pair by pairing a hole card 26.939%
You don't have a 26.939/2 % chance of flopping the Ace though, but I'm not sure how to figure the exact amount.
|
If the first figure is correct and it is referring to exactly one pair then you do have a 26.939/2 = 13.5% chance of getting exactly one pair of Aces. (Think about it, if you have exactly one pair on the board, half of the time it will be the Ace, the other half whatever the other card in your hand is, just like BILLABONG said).
|
|
|
|
BILLABONG
|
|
3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 102
|
|
Ok so...........your sayin that the odds of me flopping ONE ACE when I hold ACE/ANYTHING in my hand preflop is 17% or the 13%? Sorry to make you clearify, but I would appreciate it
|
|
|
|
bob
|
|
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 4
|
|
I didn't do the 13% calculation myself, but if edudlive's stats are correct then your odds of flopping exactly one Ace will be about 13%. Your odds of flopping one or more Aces will be about 17%.
|
|
|
|
krimson
|
|
3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 108
|
|
The odds of getting exactly one ace on the flop is (3*3*47*46)/(50*49*48) = 16.5%.
The odds of getting exactly one ace on the flop and not getting two pair by also hitting your kicker or by the board pairing is (3*3*44*40)/(50*49*48) = 13.5%.
|
|
|
|
edudlive
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 100NL 6max
Posts: 623
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by bob
I didn't do the 13% calculation myself, but if edudlive's stats are correct then your odds of flopping exactly one Ace will be about 13%. Your odds of flopping one or more Aces will be about 17%.
|
I took it from the stickey
|
|
|
|
bob
|
|
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 4
|
|
I see, that stat is for hitting exactly one pair, not at least one pair, krimson's post above shows what the difference is for odds of hitting one Ace.
|
|
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
Linear Mode
