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gingerwizard
Old 07-26-2007, 09:22 PM     Post subject: Playing Over rolled #1 (permalink)  
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 Disclaimer: If you havn't read and understood this post: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-57951.htm

Some of this may not make sense.

Common questions:
Am I playing the right stakes?
When should I move up?
I have $x, what limits should I play?

I happen to think that these questions are some of the toughest that are asked on this site, and moreover I think some Horrendous advice is given. Especially to beginners.

The norm is to stick to something like the 20 buyins rule for ring, or the 30 buyins rule for sngs or the 100 buyins rule for Mtts.

So someone new comes on (as happened today) and they say, I have 30 buyins for the stakes I play, is this enough? And the advice fired back is "You're way over rolled. You only need 20, move up!" We'll come back to this example.

Firstly lets look at what over rolled actually means

Playing over-rolled strictly means that for typical values of x at your stakes, you prefer to take a 50% chance at 2x rather than keeping x for certain.

Read that statement again. It means you are risk prone. You want to gamble. If you prefer the 50% chance of 2x rather than x then there is necessarily some y<50 for which you are indifferent between keeping x for certain of having y% chance at 2x!

Now when you think of it like that, it's easy to see how you can lose money. Obviously you don't think in the strict terms I stated above, but the attitude is revealed in your play. Losing is a drop in the ocean, so why not gamble on those close decisions. This attitude in close decisions will cost you money.

Another corollary to this, is that the money you are winning is no longer as important or satisfying. You become sloppy.

Another definition of being over-rolled

Strictly my first definition is correct, but it may not always be the whole story. Your goals and aspirations for your Bankroll are very personal.

You are over-rolled if there exists a choice of stake higher than the one you play for which your utility for the combined winrate and variance at that stake is higher than at the one you are playing. (For in depth discussion on utilities see the post limked at the top).

Lets think about this carefully: You have a bankroll. You really don't want to lose it and that is reflected in your utility function in the way discussed in my last post on Bankrolls linked at the top. However, you want it to grow as quickly as possible and there may be a level for which allows you to increase it faster whilst still keeping you happy about not being under rolled.

This last bit is so important. If you are not happy at a higher stake in the way outlined in the last post, Don't play there, even if Doyle Brunson himself tells you to.

Now of course to be over rolled for the stakes you play, it assumes you can win at the higher stake. This is also terribly important. How do you know whether you can win at the higher stake though?

You can never know, but you can do the following 2 things:

1. Make sure you can win at your current stake.
2. Take chances or "shots"

Taking Shots
Set aside a small portion of your bankroll for playing the higher limits with. This portion must be such that the remaining left over does not leve you under rolled (in the way specified before) for your current stakes.
You must also be comfortable with taking a slightly +EV gamble all at once for this whole portion. This is important in the sense stated in the last post.

Use this portion to feel your way into the higher game. Once you are comfortable playing there and you are not under rolled (in the sense of the article above) then you are ready to move up and should.

What are the dangers of playing over rolled?

1. Your utility for playing at a higher stake is greater than your utility for playing at your current stake.

Meaning everytime you buyin to the lower game, you are making a bad decision and costing yourself money.

2. You slow your improvement and limit your enjoyment.

These are really tied into the utility statement above but I thought I'd point them out to make them clear.

How do I recognise that I'm over rolled?

Look out for signs of reckless play and the "I can afford it" attitude.
You are a winning player at your current stakes. (and not slightly, but solid)
You could lose quite a lot before you considered yourself under rolled.

What to do

Take shots.

Estimate what your winrate could be at the higher stakes and ask people who know your game and can beat the stakes you would move to for advice.

Do what feels right. I know that seems like weird advice in such a technical post but your feelings about something can often be a decent estimator of your utility for it.

Giving advice

Before you tell someone they're over rolled be very careful. If you had their bankroll and were playing at their stakes then you might be over rolled but remember that everyone is different. Their risk attitudes are different. Their skill is different. Their aims for their Bankroll are different. All of these come together to provide a utility for playing at each stake, and unless you can evaluate that you know Jack shit for certain.

Thats not to say that knowing a player and how good he is cannot suggest he may be over rolled. And thats also not to say that helping people you believe to be good enough to win at a level above where they are may not be a good thing to do.

But saying "You only need 20 buyins" to a complete stranger, is totally irresponsible, and for the following reason.

You may be advising them to play under rolled

Remember that playing under rolled was also a personal thing and if anything is sure when it comes to playing under rolled, it's that risk of ruin is real.

Do you want to be responsible for someone losing more than they want to?

If you are a new player and want to know what stakes to play, then firstly, congratulations on reading my 2 posts. Secondly, do you know about pot odds, implied odds, and conservative starting hand ranges. If not , and you have upwards of $250 I suggest you start at 10NL or on the $5.50 SNGs and read read read. This forum, books, everything.

If you do, then you must be playing somewhere. Can you beat it? If so try the 20-30 buyin rule, but take shots and don't commit just yet. Are you comfortable? Are you winning?

BR management is such a personal thing. We can give advice but if specific it better be taylored to the player, and you better know them.

My advice to anyone asking about what stakes to play, would be to first read these two articles. Then, see how they feel, who they are, what they want and how good they are.

NEVER play Under rolled, and try to recognise whether or not you are over rolled and do something about it.

Playing over rolled is not ideal, but of the 2 evils, it is by far the lesser.

Thanks for reading.
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SHAKE
Old 07-26-2007, 10:43 PM #2 (permalink)  
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You know, for the most part I agree, at least about the attitude some people play w/ over rolled. But in responce to telling someone 20 BI is enough i think your looking at it from the odd angle.

20 BI is enough to withstand varience for a winning player. I think when we give advice about BR mgmnt et on this site, somthings have to be taken for granite.

Anyone we are responding to knows that we Dont know anything about their play or comfortabilty levels, therfore all q's are answered in a non biased, all varibles unconsiderd sort of way.

If somone says How much do i need to play X limit, obv the answer could be different for everyone that asks the same Q. The answer we can give (and the one i believe most are looking for) is the cut and dry...ie, How many bi's do i need to withstand varience.

Same goes for moving up and even questions about actuall play of hands. Most answers are coming from inside a vaccume, and the players that recive those answers need to taylor them to thier personal experiences.
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Pythonic
Old 07-26-2007, 10:50 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Some players might even need more than 30 buyins depending on their experience level.
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gingerwizard
Old 07-26-2007, 10:56 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pythonic
Some players might even need more than 30 buyins depending on their experience level.
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jyms
Old 07-26-2007, 10:56 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SHAKE
You know, for the most part I agree, at least about the attitude some people play w/ over rolled. But in responce to telling someone 20 BI is enough i think your looking at it from the odd angle.

20 BI is enough to withstand varience for a winning player. I think when we give advice about BR mgmnt et on this site, somthings have to be taken for granite.

Anyone we are responding to knows that we Dont know anything about their play or comfortabilty levels, therfore all q's are answered in a non biased, all varibles unconsiderd sort of way.

If somone says How much do i need to play X limit, obv the answer could be different for everyone that asks the same Q. The answer we can give (and the one i believe most are looking for) is the cut and dry...ie, How many bi's do i need to withstand varience.

Same goes for moving up and even questions about actuall play of hands. Most answers are coming from inside a vaccume, and the players that recive those answers need to taylor them to thier personal experiences.
You expect way too much from new players to understand as far as
Quote:
Anyone we are responding to knows that we Dont know anything about their play or comfortabilty levels, therfore all q's are answered in a non biased, all varibles unconsiderd sort of way.
You forget what it was like to be a beginner.
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gingerwizard
Old 07-26-2007, 10:58 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 Bad BR management advice is the worst to give.

Dolling out default advice to those unaware of the nuances of BR management is irresponsible and nobody is going to give a successful counter to that as long as they have a hole in their arse.
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SHAKE
Old 07-26-2007, 11:31 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gingerwizard
Bad BR management advice is the worst to give.

Dolling out default advice to those unaware of the nuances of BR management is irresponsible and nobody is going to give a successful counter to that as long as they have a hole in their arse.
OK. Maby i do forget what being a beginer is like.

Ginger, im gona respect you on this issue as i DO believe you know what your talking about, a and not just spreading lip service out your ass (like some unnamed posters)


Because i like it here, and i post everyday, i personally, will not give anymore BR advice in this particular section of the forums. Im not being sarcastic or anything, I understand where the regulars are coming from. Im not trying to be diffuicult with you all.....as you can see, I dont have a problem admiting i was wrong when its discussed intelligently, and with sound backing behind it. I think most of you get where i was coming from in some of those posts, but through further reading of some of the reg's posts i understand why people where getting upset.
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XTR1000
Old 07-27-2007, 07:09 PM     Post subject: Re: Playing Over rolled #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gingerwizard
[Playing over-rolled strictly means that for typical values of x at your stakes, you prefer to take a 50% chance at 2x rather than keeping x for certain.

Read that statement again. It means you are risk prone.
I like this post and I agree with most parts.

But, are people who play over-rolled really risk prone? Aren´t many of them simply not feeling confident with the doubled figures and can´t take small edges where they should, b/c they are no more risking x% of their roll, but 2x% and therefore show risk-avers behaviour?
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gingerwizard
Old 07-28-2007, 01:38 AM     Post subject: Re: Playing Over rolled #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XTR1000
Quote:
Originally Posted by gingerwizard
[Playing over-rolled strictly means that for typical values of x at your stakes, you prefer to take a 50% chance at 2x rather than keeping x for certain.

Read that statement again. It means you are risk prone.
I like this post and I agree with most parts.

But, are people who play over-rolled really risk prone? Aren´t many of them simply not feeling confident with the doubled figures and can´t take small edges where they should, b/c they are no more risking x% of their roll, but 2x% and therefore show risk-avers behaviour?
They are risk prone for there current stakes at least in terms relative to what they would be if they were at higher stakes.
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Micro2Macro
Old 01-10-2009, 03:27 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 This post was so very well thought out and is definately a must read. Nice work.
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d0zer
Old 01-10-2009, 05:11 AM #11 (permalink)  
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 Once you grind enough, you should be reasonably aware what standard levels of variance and their deviance are to the point where you can intelligently set your BRM to where you feel comfortable.

Some of us are more conservative than others but beginners should always err on the side of conservative...
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Robb
Old 01-10-2009, 06:13 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by d0zer
Once you grind enough, you should be reasonably aware what standard levels of variance and their deviance are to the point where you can intelligently set your BRM to where you feel comfortable.

Some of us are more conservative than others but beginners should always err on the side of conservative...
... but in fact due to their noob-ness tend (until they get advice) to err on the other side, unfortunately.
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gingerwizard
Old 01-10-2009, 08:56 AM #13 (permalink)  
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 Yes this post is not nearly as important as the one on playing under-rolled (see link at the top).

The point essentially (now I read back through it) was that if you have enough so that you are rolled for the next level (where "rolled" implies your indifference over gambles with the same EV and means you are NOT risk averse), it is mathematically incoherent to remain playing at your current level.

Well done for finding it
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