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Murd0c
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03-19-2006, 11:14 AM
Post subject: Picking off continuation bets
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 169
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How do you all go about picking off continuation bets?
I figure your ideal targets for picking off continuation bets are TA-Agressive and TP-Aggressive players.
So lets say for example u call a 3x raise from MP Tagg on the button with Axs. Flop comes something like 8 high rainbow. Preflop raiser bets 2/3 pot into you you raise 2.5x his bet. If you get called shutdown unless your hand improves.
Does that sound about right?
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Currently at UB playing $50 NLHE 6max.
Bankroll: ~$1900 (Almost BR'ed for 100NL.)
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Most of the guys I play against don't raise often enough.
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Murd0c
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 169
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Hmmm well let me think about this from a mathematical standpoint.
Lets say Preflop raise is $3
You call, so now there is $7.5 in the pot
Flop comes villain bets $5, $12.5 in the pot
U raise $12.5 (2.5x) , $25 in the pot
Soooooo your betting $12.5 to win $12.5? So it would have to work at least 50% of the time to be profitable? Much less if you have a strong draw?
If we assume villain only raises with pockets 99+ and all broadways there is about a 50% chance his hole cards will either be two big unpaired cards or a pocket pair. In this scenario it would make sense only to raise to test for a continuation bet if two of the following 3 are true:
-Player always or almost always continuation bets after raising pref lop
-Player is weak enough to fold to the raise even with a pocket pair
-Hero has a strong drawing hand
I love it when a plan comes together 
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Currently at UB playing $50 NLHE 6max.
Bankroll: ~$1900 (Almost BR'ed for 100NL.)
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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You will face lots of players who will call the flop raise, but will fold unimproved to a turn bet.
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Murd0c
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 169
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Making a turn bet seems like an awful lot to commit to a pot when u don't have a spectacular hand. Unless you suggest making a smaller size bet on the turn.
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Currently at UB playing $50 NLHE 6max.
Bankroll: ~$1900 (Almost BR'ed for 100NL.)
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Exactly, many players will force you to put in the second barrel in to keep you honest. Particulary when they raise pre-flop (which they generally don't do enough of) and probably are rather fond of looking at a couple purdy cards in the hole.
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Murd0c
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 169
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So like bet a third the pot on the turn or something?
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Currently at UB playing $50 NLHE 6max.
Bankroll: ~$1900 (Almost BR'ed for 100NL.)
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Murd0c
So like bet a third the pot on the turn or something?
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I try to make my (semi-)bluffs look like my made hands. Sometimes I wonder why I bother, but anyway, it's a pretty good thought.
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Exactly, many players will force you to put in the second barrel in to keep you honest.
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This is what I've been noticing too. A major leak of mine is, I guess, that I then wuss out at the turn.
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davemac2005
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Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: michigan
Posts: 31
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Exactly, many players will force you to put in the second barrel in to keep you honest.
I have noticed that when someone comes over the top on the flop for a good pot size they will fold most of the time. You will get the weekend noobs with the overs hoping to draw out on the turn and folding if unimproved
All posts are accurate and good plays....usually drop the pot on the turn though with another blank
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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I probably don't pick up c-bets enough. That being said, one of the most common scenarios is when a fairly solid player c-bets on an innocuous flop when I have a hand like 55-88 (ex. flop 49T rainbow). I usually just call the c-bet and see how the turn develops. The check-raise semibluff is far too expensive, so I stopped doing that. If he bets out again on the turn, I survey my options again. I usually get go on my read from then on.
If a tight-passive or loose-passive bets out on the flop after betting preflop, its a no brainer fold.
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underminedsk
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Reraising you from the button
Posts: 250
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ill pick off c bets from good, tight players from position only. To do this, I play my hand like I hit a set on the flop. This way, I can not only get folds from unimproved overs, but from TPTK and overpairs, too.
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online br: $14,000, @400NL full ring, 100NL 6 max
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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A quick question about c-bets.. would you generally make a c-bet if you are first up with 3 people behind you? Or is it reserved for when you have less opponents and possibly better position?
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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1-2 max
unless the flop is pure oatmeal, then I might c-bet with three, but even then its case by case.
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Thee One
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 185
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Exactly, many players will force you to put in the second barrel in to keep you honest. Particulary when they raise pre-flop (which they generally don't do enough of) and probably are rather fond of looking at a couple purdy cards in the hole.
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Agreed. The turn bet will normally get the pot if the flop raise was just called. If both bets are called, then you just learned an expensive lesson in most cases. Note it and check/fold the river if you don't have a chance. The next time this guy will probably pay off your set but good. The funny thing is...there are so many that call you down to the river and fold to any bet that it's sometimes profitable to bet the river too, but that's risky.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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you just need to know who cn fold to a raise.
After that picking off the right opponents is easy for small pots. Playing big pots with traps and draws against calling stations is more profitable though.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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If you are going to bluff then act like you have a hand. That requires a turn bet if he calls, maybe even a river bet.
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