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Kijjo
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11-13-2008, 07:07 AM
Post subject: Philosophical Question
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Alabama
Posts: 554
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People always complain about bad beats and talk about how it seems like they don't suckout on others nearly as often as they get sucked out on, right?
But, shouldn't that be true of a great player? Think about it, let's say a great player is ahead 80% of the time when the $ goes into the pot. How in the world could you expect to suck out on people as often as you get sucked out on? You should take roughly 4 times the # of bad beats! (Now obvioulsy you're going to be raking in roughly 4 times as many pots too.)
Folks, unless I'm missing something, don't get down about taking the beats. It means you're taking them over your knee and pwning their butts, the belt just comes back to bite you in the face once in a while.
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Donk Skills:
#1 The bluff call
#2 The Drawing-Dead Value Bet
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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Well, while it is true that a good player is going to get their money in good more often, I'm not sure if we can apply that to everyone who takes a bad beat here. The majority of it is just whining. I mean I understand the intent of your OP and appreciate it; however, people just need to face the facts when it comes to poker.
1) You are not being plotted against.
2) You lose exactly as often as you are supposed to, but don't notice due to the small sample size.
3) Realize negative variance isn't the only kind of variance. How do you think you were "crushing" it at times? It's called a heater (positive variance). You are likely not that good (not in general, but when you are running hot).
4) It's a part of poker. And it's what keeps the money flowing the direction of the better players. If your hand always held, suddenly all the bad players would realize they are never winning. And the ones that can't afford that, and currently play on false hope that they are just "unlucky", will leave. And you will pray for some bad beats.
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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tilt is illogical, but it's still there!
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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Bad beats as opposed to coolers mean that some idiot is getting it in against you when you have way the best of it. If you have a lot of bad beats, but no significant profit in the long run, then you are the sucker. Less bad beats just mean you're playing against more solid opponents.
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The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,072
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
3) Realize negative variance isn't the only kind of variance. How do you think you were "crushing" it at times? It's called a heater (positive variance). You are likely not that good (not in general, but when you are running hot).
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^^^ this
One of my biggest leaks as a losing/barely winning player was to attribute all my successful sessions to good play and all the bad ones to negative variance. Really hinders the learning curve.
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robb
Quote:
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
3) Realize negative variance isn't the only kind of variance. How do you think you were "crushing" it at times? It's called a heater (positive variance). You are likely not that good (not in general, but when you are running hot).
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^^^ this
One of my biggest leaks as a losing/barely winning player was to attribute all my successful sessions to good play and all the bad ones to negative variance. Really hinders the learning curve. |
Ahh the heater confidence. I always seem to look at them the opposite. When I'm winnings it's a huge heater, and when I'm losing, "God, I suck and need to start 4 tabling to focus on my play again!" (and I do if I have like more than a 5 buyin downwswing).
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mcatdog
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 3,654
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It's not necessarily true at all that winning players get their money in good more often than not. Some of the best players are just really good at picking spots to apply pressure, and when they get the money in they're behind more often than not, but they make up for it with all the folds they get. This is discussed in Super System.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
3) Realize negative variance isn't the only kind of variance. How do you think you were "crushing" it at times? It's called a heater (positive variance). You are likely not that good (not in general, but when you are running hot).
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This. Your chances of a 10+ buy-in downswing is more of a function of your win-rate (game/seat selection!) than how loose/aggressive you play.
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Kijjo
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Alabama
Posts: 554
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mcatdog, interesting thought.
guess I was mainly thinking when the calls come, but you're right, great players will get their money in and often have a 0% chance of taking a beat 'cause the other guy ain't calling. True.
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Donk Skills:
#1 The bluff call
#2 The Drawing-Dead Value Bet
__________________________________________________ _____________
"What we do in life echoes in eternity."
Maximus Decimus Meridius - Gladiator
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