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PF odds vs loose player

  
 
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tyrn
Old 04-04-2009, 06:24 PM     Post subject: PF odds vs loose player #1 (permalink)  
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I have an interesting hand here that I would muck given another villain. I don't have the implied odds to call here especially OOP.

Button is 37/29 over 40 hands. Assuming those stats are correct with the small sample size, he's raising 29% of his hands, and being on the button, his range is larger if anything. KJ put me around the top 12% of hands. Is it ever +EV to call or shove vs this opponent. What if the sample size was 1000 hands? I'd consider calling, because I'm probably ahead more often than not on a dry K high board. Obviously i let this 1 go if I miss.

NL $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRivercom

BB ($5.06)
Button ($1.53)
Hero (SB) ($10.32)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Kh, Jd
5 folds, Button bets $0.15, Hero ???
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Ragnar4
Old 04-04-2009, 07:11 PM #2 (permalink)  
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If you think you're ahead, raise for isolation.

KJo just doesn't play well multiway.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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tyrn
Old 04-04-2009, 07:25 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragnar4
raise for isolation.
Good point, I think 4x raise helps isolate, while not risking more than necessary if BB wakes up with a hand, and pretty much shove or fold for villain.

I also forgot to mention his att to steal was 100%. Probably not entirely accurate given I had only seen 4 orbits, but never the less I think it helps here.
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Micro2Macro
Old 04-04-2009, 09:08 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 Folding is obviously not an option.

Why are we concerned with isolating when we only have one played left to act + we're out of positoin. Just call.

Anyone else think 3-betting with KJ here is shitty?
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Illfavor
Old 04-04-2009, 09:41 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
Folding is obviously not an option.

Why are we concerned with isolating when we only have one played left to act + we're out of positoin. Just call.

Anyone else think 3-betting with KJ here is shitty?
Me. We 3bet and have to call a 4bet shove, or 3bet and essentially commit ourselves vs. a 30BB stack OOP, pretty much shoving any flop. I'd just call , try to hit TP and "stack" him or c/f.
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Micro2Macro
Old 04-04-2009, 10:01 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 ^ That's precisely why 3-betting is shitty, I was just hoping for OP to think about why it is.

nihan ill'
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

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http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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tyrn
Old 04-04-2009, 10:37 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Well in poker stove KJo is exactly 50 50 with his PR range (top 30% hands), ignoring his att. to steal stat. Even with no fold equity and worse case scenario this is 50-50. If we consider his 100% att. steal, I think there's some decent 3-bet fold equity.

As played I did just call this, but now I think I would r/c or fold, I don't want to play KJo to flatted pfr OOP. Drawing hand, no implied odds, and I don't like playing this to any aggression 66% of the time after seeing the flop.

Edit: Actually come to think of it, 3-betting a 40 vpip player probably doesn't have much fold equity. I guess I just call and hope BB doesn't decide to tag along.
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Illfavor
Old 04-04-2009, 11:15 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 KJo is not a drawing hand vs. short stackers. It's a Top Pair hand: we hope to hit our K or J on non-A high flops and just get it in.
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Ragnar4
Old 04-05-2009, 05:40 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
^ That's precisely why 3-betting is shitty, I was just hoping for OP to think about why it is.

nihan ill'
I guess you're right.

Mostly because I missed position. What happens when we Catch
J8X with 2tone board we check, opp checks, and hero shoves. We're in a pretty tough spot, because when we call, we just about guarantee that BB if he's on a Flush or straight draw we have to put the rest in...

But I guess I'm just seeing ninjas in the bushes.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 04-05-2009, 06:37 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 In that case, just fold. It's not worth it if he overbets especially because of our relative position, unless villain behind us will be covered as well and we feel we are well ahead of the raiser's shoving range and the villains range relative to this flop - unless we know he always leads flush draws or something, in which case it may be more likely he has top pair or better. If he checks though, he likely has alot of air in his range also, so it probably is just more important regarding what the button has unless the big blind has you covered for a significant amount.

I hope that sort of makes sense? I just kind of rambled some words together and I'm not sure I get it myself.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

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sil693
Old 04-05-2009, 09:02 AM #11 (permalink)  
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why would we 3bet with KJ if we have no idea if he is calling with worse hands?
 
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texa8
Old 04-05-2009, 10:50 AM #12 (permalink)  
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i just call this pre due to not only the fact hes aggressive, but he is short stacked and imo we dont want to be stacking off pre here. (my thinking changes if we are playing with 100BB stacks; im probably 3-betting with the above such hands to protect blinds and play back at perceived steal attempts)

My plan of attack for this hand is to flat call, hope for J or K high flop. Agaist such a player id check and give them a chance to cbet, hopefully enough to commit to the pot, and get all their stack in the middle on that flop. On a missed flop just c/f imo..

Quote:
I have an interesting hand here that I would muck given another villain
umm.. why?? are you talking about just throwing this away pre flop? if that is an open raise on the button im not folding KJ to 90%+ of players.
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badgers
Old 04-05-2009, 11:33 AM #13 (permalink)  
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37/29 isn't particularly crazy if it's all been 3handed. If most of the sample comes from a 6handed or 9handed table then call/get it in with top pair is good, but fold is not bad also.

3bet is spew with these stack sizes.
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Old 04-05-2009, 03:53 PM #14 (permalink)  
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if you're 3bing, then just shove
you're not 3b for value
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tyrn
Old 04-05-2009, 04:00 PM #15 (permalink)  
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It actually was 8 handed, I just trimmed out the stacks which already folded, which I guess just leads to confusion. I'll refrain from it in future posts.

I think the consensus here is just call if i feel I'm ahead.

Here's the rest of the hand, I got quite fortunate on the turn, then some good ol' variability on the river.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($5.06)
UTG ($1.28)
UTG+1 ($5.38)
MP1 ($1.25)
MP2 ($3.26)
CO ($5.02)
Button ($1.53)
Hero (SB) ($10.32)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, J
5 folds, Button bets $0.15, Hero calls $0.13, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.35) 6, 10, 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($0.35) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $0.30, Button raises to $1.38 (All-In), Hero calls $1.08

River: ($3.11) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $3.11 | Rake: $0.20

Results:
Button had A, 2 (flush, Ace high).
Hero had K, J (straight, King high).
Outcome: Button won $2.91
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badgers
Old 04-05-2009, 08:29 PM #16 (permalink)  
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no the consensus is call if you think you're far ahead of his preflop range to negate positional advantage that he has. Simply calling if you think you are >50% vs his range is not enough unless you can significantly outplay him postflop (ie. have reads and know some massive leaks in his game)
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Illfavor
Old 04-05-2009, 11:48 PM #17 (permalink)  
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 Did you post this b/c you lost? I see a perfectly played hand.
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tyrn
Old 04-06-2009, 12:14 AM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Illfavor
Did you post this b/c you lost? I see a perfectly played hand.
I posted the hand because I don't normally play these, so I wanted some feedback. That's why I only posted the PF action originally.

I posted the results because I thought it was worth a laugh. I went in as the underdog, then turned the tables only to come back out with a losing hand. I couldn't have asked for this hand to go more perfectly, minus the minor setback on the river.
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Micro2Macro
Old 04-06-2009, 02:20 AM #19 (permalink)  
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 u got your money in with the nuts, well played.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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