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Stuventus
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06-10-2009, 10:43 AM
Post subject: Pairs hitting more sets
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 50
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Does anybody feel they get certain pairs that hit them more sets?
It seems most of the time i get snowmen i always seem to hit a set or even quads on the flop. And more often than not it is against pocket kings who have already defined their hand by an out of character pre flop re raise.
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Lucothefish
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Cretaceous Park
Posts: 701
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Over how many hands are you drawing this conclusion?
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<@d0zer> how will you learn if I don't berate you harshly?
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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oh dem holly jollies.
Every pair has the same liklihood of hitting a set, that is assuming none of your outs are in others hands or have been throw away.
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Stuventus
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Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 50
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Really stacks?
I thought some pairs were more likely to hit sets. Jeez.
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Stuventus
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Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 50
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Snowmen again. Set again.
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Monsieur_chat
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: London
Posts: 254
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errr... lol?
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Monty3038
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Ohio
Posts: 788
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I would think there is some minute difference that would make sets more feasible with lower cards... reason I say that is you can only hit a set if you see a flop... flop play is only possible against an opponent... oppnents are not likely to play crap... so since they are playing better cards, that reduces the number of available better cards in the deck minutely... thus I would think you might see a set of 8's maybe like .05 percent more than a set of Ks.
But I never took statistics.
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yes set of deuces hit sets the most, precisely for the reason that monty said:
if you have a pp and you raise and everyone else folds, they must have been dealt less aces and more deuces on average
when you DO see a flop with a pp your opponents have more aces and less deuces on average
and nobody fucking knows what % of the time (but it's probably like Monty says, a really small difference)
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Fielmann
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 330
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It can be deduced that when holding a high pair, one can increase one's chances of flopping a set by not betting pre-flop.
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sil693
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Birmingham, UK
Posts: 609
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fielmann
It can be deduced that when holding a high pair, one can increase one's chances of flopping a set by not betting pre-flop.
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It can be deduced, that you are gay.
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Monty3038
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Ohio
Posts: 788
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OMFG... iopq actually thought I might be on the right track on something 
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fielmann
It can be deduced that when holding a high pair, one can increase one's chances of flopping a set by not betting pre-flop.
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if A implies B, B does not necessarily imply A
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Keith
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,336
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fielmann
It can be deduced that when holding a high pair, one can increase one's chances of flopping a set by not betting pre-flop.
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if you don't bet preflop , that means you have folded unless you are the big blind and its limped back to you.It could still be argued that the blinds have made a forced bet though. In all other cases though , how does folding preflop increase you chances of hitting a set on the flop?
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golfguy37
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Straight
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 217
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All pairs flop a set equal amounts of time. It's just blind luck that it always happens with 8's for you.
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Monty3038
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Ohio
Posts: 788
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Keith_MM
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fielmann
It can be deduced that when holding a high pair, one can increase one's chances of flopping a set by not betting pre-flop.
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if you don't bet preflop , that means you have folded unless you are the big blind and its limped back to you.It could still be argued that the blinds have made a forced bet though. In all other cases though , how does folding preflop increase you chances of hitting a set on the flop? |
Trying to resist... trying... trying... failing to resist...
It's sarcasm.
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,072
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OK, this thread got pretty silly and made me laugh a bit, but the question intrigues me mathematically.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
yes set of deuces hit sets the most, precisely for the reason that monty said:
if you have a pp and you raise and everyone else folds, they must have been dealt less aces and more deuces on average
when you DO see a flop with a pp your opponents have more aces and less deuces on average
and nobody fucking knows what % of the time (but it's probably like Monty says, a really small difference)
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IOPQ is obv right that OF THE PP'S THAT SEE FLOPS, 22 flops more sets than AA.
But AA sees more flop than 22. So the question of which pp flops the most total sets is probably QQ since it sees nearly 100% of flops and has fewer blockers typically out against it than AA and KK. That's the interesting part of the question, for me.
But like IOPQ says, whatever difference exists is probably so small we'd need like 4 billion HH's in a database to know with any accuracy.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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ZOMG ONLINE POKER IS RIGGED
YOU CAN'T BEAT LIVE POKER BECAUSE PEOPLE CHEAT
IOQP YOU ARE SUCH A NAZI
There now this thread is officially in the suck, can we put it out of its misery?
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,072
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
can we put it out of its misery?
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lock it plz?
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Stuventus
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Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 50
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Are you so obtuse that it is deemed necessary to lock any thread you dont approve of?
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sarbox68
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: wondering where the 3 extra chairs at my 6max table came from
Posts: 871
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Stuventus
Are you so obtuse that it is deemed necessary to lock any thread you dont approve of?
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snowmen are the most obtuse pp 'cause they has the round... 
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maxtax
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 6
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Hear are my numbers from the last 80K hands.
Who needs jacks to set anyway? My snowmen arnt as good as yours.
Code:
Player: 1
Hands: 80859
A 371 (1 in 217) 208 19 (1 in 10.95)
K 363 (1 in 222) 217 19 (1 in 11.42)
Q 358 (1 in 225) 237 28 (1 in 8.46)
J 339 (1 in 238) 280 19 (1 in 14.74)
T 380 (1 in 212) 320 38 (1 in 8.42)
9 365 (1 in 221) 299 36 (1 in 8.31)
8 385 (1 in 210) 336 36 (1 in 9.33)
7 385 (1 in 210) 334 37 (1 in 9.03)
6 344 (1 in 235) 297 24 (1 in 12.38)
5 386 (1 in 209) 334 45 (1 in 7.42)
4 332 (1 in 243) 293 40 (1 in 7.33)
3 390 (1 in 207) 323 42 (1 in 7.69)
2 365 (1 in 221) 307 39 (1 in 7.87)
PP: 1 in 16.98
Sets: 1 in 8.97
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Seasider
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Bangor UK
Posts: 563
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My initial reaction would be in cash games AA and KK get most over massive samples because they are more prone to see 2 extra streets than the others.
Don't know how to rescue the thread tho.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Stuventus
Are you so obtuse
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what did you call me???
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sarbox68
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: wondering where the 3 extra chairs at my 6max table came from
Posts: 871
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Stuventus
Are you so obtuse
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what did you call me??? |
I'm not exactly sure, but if you break it down...
"ob" - as in "ob/gyn" or the branch of medicine dealing with the act of childbirth
"tu" - spanish; "you" familiar
"se" - a Portuguese parish, located in Braganca
...so seems to me he just called you a Portuguese pussy.... which is definitely uncool
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sarbox68
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Stuventus
Are you so obtuse
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what did you call me??? |
I'm not exactly sure, but if you break it down...
"ob" - as in "ob/gyn" or the branch of medicine dealing with the act of childbirth
"tu" - spanish; "you" familiar
"se" - a Portuguese parish, located in Braganca
...so seems to me he just called you a Portuguese pussy.... which is definitely uncool |
ok, cant find the Shawshank clip but I remember this from the FG season finale and I laughed so hard when he said "acute"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7t_y6I4vKA
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sarbox68
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: wondering where the 3 extra chairs at my 6max table came from
Posts: 871
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
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freakin hilarious 
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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at least be man enough to say you locked a thread in my forum
{unlocked}
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fusionjj
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 6
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robb
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
can we put it out of its misery?
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lock it plz? |
I have nothing to add except to say that I know the name of the girl in your SN pic is Rikki Ishoy and she is climbing at the happy boulders near Bishop California, and that pic is a covershot from Climbing Magazine from 1997, and that I have met her, been there and still have that issue.
Oh, and nice choice. 
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Aces will hit sets less often than 22 because you'll be against people with Aces more often when you have AA and with 22 you'll be against people who don't have 2s as often or wahtever you know what I mean I can't type for shit
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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Lucothefish
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Cretaceous Park
Posts: 701
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HOLY SHIT
HAI SPOON
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<@d0zer> how will you learn if I don't berate you harshly?
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,072
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by fusionjj
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robb
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
can we put it out of its misery?
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lock it plz? |
I have nothing to add except to say that I know the name of the girl in your SN pic is Rikki Ishoy and she is climbing at the happy boulders near Bishop California, and that pic is a covershot from Climbing Magazine from 1997, and that I have met her, been there and still have that issue.
Oh, and nice choice. |
thx
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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whooo this has been unlocked
now i can type whatever i want on this thread without being banned
(_/_) (_|_) (_\_) (_|_) (_/_)
shake shake shake....shake shake shake...shake you booty
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas.  |
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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and with that, I'll lock it
{locked}
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