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Overvaluing AQ?

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Waggho

03-24-2005, 03:52 PM Post subject: Overvaluing AQ?

#1 (permalink)

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I just bought pokertracker! I have uploaded 2k hand histories, and my best hand so far is K5s which I have won with two times of three making an avarage net/hand above all others!

AA is at least second best.

Anyway, I thought it would be fun to see which hands I have lost the most money on, and got a shock when I scrolled to the bottom and saw this:

AQo dealt 21 times net -71.70 avg/hand -3.41
AQs dealt 9 times net -44.20 avg/hand -4.91

Although it´s a really small sample, don´t you think this must mean something? These are my two worst hands whatsoever. How do you play AQ? I used to standard raise from just about any position but lately I have been more moderate with it. I think I have lost with it against AK a couple of times with an A on flop. These statistics were just horrible to see.

And by the way, TT is my fourth worst hand... maybe I whould start playing it more like lower pocket pairs and not raise every good damn time I get it.

/Wag
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TylerK

03-24-2005, 03:55 PM

#2 (permalink)

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No, it doesn't mean anything over 2k hands. I was losing with AKs over something like 5k hands. Sample size is too small.

TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol

a500lbgorilla

03-24-2005, 04:18 PM

#3 (permalink)

JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD

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Post all your AQ hand histories.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.

Admerylous

03-24-2005, 08:36 PM

#4 (permalink)

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And pocket Ts!

bspahn

03-24-2005, 10:57 PM

#5 (permalink)

Full House

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can you request hand histories from UB?

Fnord

03-24-2005, 11:06 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

AQ is the second most over-rated hand in Hold'em.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

bspahn

03-24-2005, 11:58 PM

#7 (permalink)

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whats the first? I know one big leak i fixed a while ago was overvaluing AJ, i'm much more comfortable with this hand now, it's good but not great.

Fnord

03-24-2005, 11:59 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Most over-rated hands:
JTs
AQo
KQo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

jmontis

03-25-2005, 12:39 AM

#9 (permalink)

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I reallllly don't put much money on KQo / AQo. JT is a hit or miss hand to me, I never rely on it as TPTK, but as a straight connector.

I basically wont even play AJ/AT unless they are suited

TT however, is a very good hand, you just have to know when to hold it, and when to fold it.

Demiparadigm

03-25-2005, 01:03 AM

#10 (permalink)

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Expected value by starting hand:
AA 2.32
KK 1.67
QQ 1.22
JJ 0.86
AK s 0.77
AQ s 0.59
TT 0.58
AK 0.51
AJ s 0.43
KQ s 0.39
99 0.38
AT s 0.33
AQ 0.31

AQ is hard to over value preflop, although many players manage.
When these hands are truly overvalued is post flop.

The pre flop game is more a game of feel and heart.
The post flop game is analytical. You already have a full round of betting to draw conclusions on. Is AQ good now? Do I have the odds to see one more card?
Remember that top pair is a big favorite over 2 overcards. (about 2:1)

Demiparadigm

03-25-2005, 01:15 AM

#11 (permalink)

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Hole Cards % of Hands won in a ten player game

AA 31%
KK 26.02%
QQ 22.03%
AKs 20.19%
JJ 19.09%
AQs 18.66%
KQs 18.08%
AJs 17.47%
KJs 17.05%
TT 16.83%
AKo 16.67%
ATs 16.63%
QJs 16.58%
KTs 16.14%
QTs 15.84%
JTs 15.78%
99 15.29%
AQ 14.87%

drmcboy

04-01-2005, 06:43 PM

#12 (permalink)

DrButtInski
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If you don't groan when you pick up AQ, I don't think you've played enough poker. Someday you'll lose to AK again and you will say to yourself "THAT's why they call it a trap hand."

Doyle won't play it.

Daniel N says he's lost millions with it.

Play 78s instead.

cartilago77

04-01-2005, 06:48 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by drmcboy

Yeah, i wish i could remember what Daniel called the A-Q...something like the three point six because that is how many million he guesses he has lost with it.

dsaxton

04-01-2005, 06:50 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jmontis

JT is a hit or miss hand to me, I never rely on it as TPTK

You might run into some problems trying to flop top pair, top kicker with J-10.

nick87

04-01-2005, 08:22 PM

#15 (permalink)

Join Date: Jul 2004

Posts: 53

I play the .1/.2 games at UB and i have to say

hands like AQ suited or unsuited can get you aLOT of money against these people.

but you should be more careful against good opponents with it.

in my live games, i just limp in in early position.
I'll raise though in late.

whileone

04-01-2005, 09:03 PM

#16 (permalink)

Flush

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AQ is a nice hand for stealing. raise pre flop, continuation bet regardless of flop, done. works nicely at $25. probably breaks down at $50.

risk $2 to win ~$1.50 maybe not worth it if it dosn't work all the time.

Noooooooooooooooo!!
--Darth Vader

faustas

04-01-2005, 09:10 PM

#17 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmontis

JT is a hit or miss hand to me, I never rely on it as TPTK

You might run into some problems trying to flop top pair, top kicker with J-10.

This is a little off-topic:

For the longest time I thought TPTK is defined as hitting AT with a 2TK flop or AK with A59 flop.

So if you have JT and flop comes 25T, that's still defined at TPTK?

ilikeaces86

04-01-2005, 09:19 PM

#18 (permalink)

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aleksandr

04-02-2005, 07:53 PM

#19 (permalink)

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Top Pair: the highest card on the board matches a card in your hand.
Top Kicker: your kicker is an ace, or a king if your ace pairs or there are 4 aces showing.

Operation Learn to Read
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lovemachine

04-02-2005, 09:29 PM

#20 (permalink)

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i find that in tournament play, when the blinds are low, AQ is definately overvalued. blinds may still be 10/20 and someone will lose all 1500 of their chips because sometimes its hard to get off of a pair of aces with a queen kicker. or a pair of queens with ace kicker. ironically, i just got dealt AQoff in my tournament, but ill get back to my point now. it is too easy to get caught up with AQ early in a tournament, people will call out with hands where they have good implied odds and it can be tough to lay it down. maybe people for this reason bust out early with AQ. however, late in tournaments when blinds are big, average stack may only be 10x the big blind, this is when i find AQ to become more valuable. people cant call you out with 78s anymore to chase their straights and flushes because they dont have the right odds anymore. they risk too much of their stack. also you can catch desperate short stacks who go all-in with Ace and a rag, KQ, etc. this can build your stack nicely late in a tournament if AQ is used right.

Fnord

04-02-2005, 09:44 PM

#21 (permalink)

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Don't get me wrong, AQo is a great hand. Very profitable in most structures. But against a player with a likely premium hand it's toilet paper and I think less than 10% of hold'em players really understand just how second class of a second class hand it is.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

jmontis

04-02-2005, 11:53 PM

#22 (permalink)

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I'm totally with you on that, KQo and AQo are definitely scary hands in big money pots.

dsaxton

04-03-2005, 12:50 AM

#23 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jmontis

I'm totally with you on that, KQo and AQo are definitely scary hands in big money pots.

They're pretty easy hands to fold when you've flopped something marginal like top pair and other players are showing a lot of strength.

Surf_Thug

04-04-2005, 09:46 PM

#24 (permalink)

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Hey Fnord, You seem to be good with the numbers..

When holding AQ, what are the chances someone else holds AK.

Suits don't matter, if someone could calculate it either way great, and a 10 handed game.

Actually, I wonder how much that would change when the game becomes short handed..

Anyone have the brain power to figure that out??

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Element187

04-04-2005, 10:46 PM

#25 (permalink)

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i play AQ from the button in an unraised pot.. in an unraised pot, you can be fairly confident that no one holds AK.

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Roco415

04-04-2005, 10:58 PM

#26 (permalink)

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how much does pokertracker cost?

Laeelin

04-05-2005, 03:09 AM

#27 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Roco415

how much does pokertracker cost?

$55

worth every penny

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?

poskid_1982

04-11-2005, 12:24 PM

#28 (permalink)

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Best comment made (jmontis)

Quote:

I'm totally with you on that, KQo and AQo are definitely scary hands in big money pots.

AQ is great to follow on a nice preflop raise with weak opponents or to take down a small pot when you hit your A or Q...2/3 pot bets and dont get overexcited on the turn if the callers tag along.

You either win small or lose big. (give me a real money hand like 88)

Superb play sir...I always call 20% of my stack off with a gutshot draw. Excuse me while I race for my wallet.

grnydrowave2

04-11-2005, 03:31 PM

#29 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by cartilago77

Quote:

Originally Posted by drmcboy

Yeah, i wish i could remember what Daniel called the A-Q...something like the three point six because that is how many million he guesses he has lost with it.

He was talking about AK, and he calls it 2.7 because he has lost 2.7 million dollars with it.

Fortune 500

04-11-2005, 03:43 PM

#30 (permalink)

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AQ is a very delicate hand, and easily dominated. I play it with one premise: I want to push with it, not be pushed. If you make an aggressive play with it, and get pushed back, typically, you're at best a coinflip, and at worst dominated.

This is actually a good rule for a lot of hands. Just proceed with caution, and don't get too pot committed with it.

Get your own operations graphic here:
http://operations.talkingapes.com

zenbitz

04-11-2005, 04:51 PM

#31 (permalink)

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I think I actually did this calcuation, or a similar one in another thread:

if you hold AQ, chance of the the next guy holding AK = 3 *4 / 50 * 49 = .005. The chance of NO ONE holding AK = .995^9th power

~96%

Now, that doesn't count the other hands that kick your ass - AA/KK/QQ - there are 6+12+6 = 24 more of those, so it would b a 12.7% chance (about 1 in 8) that someone dominates you.

Zangief

04-11-2005, 05:12 PM

#32 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmontis

JT is a hit or miss hand to me, I never rely on it as TPTK

You might run into some problems trying to flop top pair, top kicker with J-10.

A-hahahahahaha. Hilarious!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

I'm probably one of the 90% of players who overvalue it. I just don't call a pre-flop raise with AQo unless I know the raiser is a loose player and there have been no raises ahead of me and there are likely to be no raises behind me.

I think it is pretty uncommon to be in a hand holding AQ against a loose raiser with AA, KK, AK, or QQ. Additionally, the flop would have to be better for him than for me and the hand would have to go to a showdown to make it a really big loser. I probably play less often than others here, but it doesn't seem like this happens that often for me.

melinda27

04-11-2005, 07:14 PM

#33 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

The pre flop game is more a game of feel and heart.
The post flop game is analytical.

i feel the exact opposite of this. preflop i know what i'm gonna play from what positions and under what circumstances. Postflop its all about feeling for me, is this person weak can i take away this pot, am i strong enough to win this at showdown, will he fall for a trap, can i bluff this guy out if a scare card hits. I dont need great pot odds to follow through on a hand anymore, i just need a good enough feel for my opponents to know if i can either A) catch a hand to beat them, B) Find a card that hits the board that will scare them, or C) just plain take the pot away from them because they are too timid to defend it.

RHCNNN

04-11-2005, 08:06 PM Post subject: sdfghdfh

#34 (permalink)

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^^^^^^^bingo

Greedo017

04-11-2005, 08:35 PM

#35 (permalink)

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wow, i've never had any problems with aq, its kindof weird to hear you talk like its trash.

i play it just like ak, except if the pot is already raised preflop, i don't reraise, where i do with ak. if the flop comes say AJ9, and i bet and get reraised like crazy, AK is just another hand to be afraid of, along with J9, 10Qs, 9's, j's, aj, etc. admittedly, i haven't played a whole crap-ton of hands, but i've only caught an ace and wrongly pushed aq at ak once, and it was against a short stack and I caught my queen anyway. and i really doubt i will make that mistake often enough to make AQ anything but a +++$$$ hand for me.

ekillian

04-11-2005, 09:19 PM

#36 (permalink)

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Speaking about JT

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmontis

I never rely on it as TPTK, but as a straight connector.
.

Uhhh of course you never rely on it as TPTK. It's impossible.

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Zangief

04-11-2005, 09:27 PM

#37 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ekillian

Speaking about JT

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmontis

I never rely on it as TPTK, but as a straight connector.
.

Uhhh of course you never rely on it as TPTK. It's impossible.

Suddenly, all of the aces, kings, and queens in the deck spontaneously combust. Ha!

Okay, we've drilled this guy enough.

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