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Overpairs on scary boards. 2 Hands.

  
 
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Carroters
Old 09-02-2009, 03:53 PM     Post subject: Overpairs on scary boards. 2 Hands. #1 (permalink)  
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 1. Villain is passive running 31/4/1.3 over 75 hands. I would expect him to be more inclined to call pair/draw combos or top pair than to raise them.

This feels very nitty, but here's a likely range for villain imo: Board: 9c 7h 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.014% 34.49% 01.26% 22539 824.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 60.986% 62.98% 01.26% 41153 824.00 { JJ-77, ATs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, ATo, JTo, T9o }

I really dont think AT and such should even be in there vs this guy. I just included them to make up for the small % that hes playing oesds this way. I think this is a pretty easy fold. We're crushed by sets, 2-pairs and straights and not even very far ahead of the rest of his range (the pair + draw hands etc)

The bet sizing is being displayed in a gay way for some reason. Flop raise is $3.25 more to me.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($34.50)
Hero (SB) ($107.25)
BB ($18.65)
UTG ($25)
MP ($27.85)
CO ($24.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, K
4 folds, Hero bets $0.80, BB calls $0.65

Flop: ($1.80) 9, 7, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.40, BB raises $3.25, Hero folds

Total pot: $4.60

2. Villain is 41/18 over 45 hands. I'm genuinely confused as to how I should play this turn. Given stack sizes a bet essentially commits me, but I don't like the look of b/c at all. The only hands we're getting value from are like [88, 99, A6] and we're crushed quite often here. Thoughts?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($27.05)
CO ($26.25)
Button ($28.75)
SB ($25)
Hero (BB) ($48.65)
UTG ($13.35)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, 10
UTG calls $0.25, 4 folds, Hero bets $1, UTG calls $1

Flop: ($2.60) 6, 5, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $2, UTG calls $2

Turn: ($6.60) 4 (2 players)
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Old 09-02-2009, 04:14 PM #2 (permalink)  
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H1 - The bet/fold seems fine. We're OOP and we'll be matching his stack by the river. Question is - are we willing to get it all in on this board given his flop actions? Not against this range, nope.

H2 - Meh, I dunno. A bet/fold would work here if villain is a full stack but I don't like a check/fold either. Villain could have 77-99 or two over-cards. Are we ahead enough here to ship it?
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Vinland
Old 09-02-2009, 07:05 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Vinland is an unknown quantity at this point
 Hand 1) I dont know If I'm ready to give up yet...if he's nitty then I guess you can assume you are beat. On a board like that though, is there any chance he reraises thinking you just have overs and he's bluffing?

Hand 2) If he wasnt so short I b/f the turn. With his short stack its tough to tell what he calls a bet with that doesnt crush you. I think you can add K6 to his hands or A5...
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