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Imthenewfish
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06-07-2010, 10:43 PM
Post subject: Overpair facing aggression on paired board
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: sites im allowed to play on
Posts: 945
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villain is running 80/3/7(Agg factor) over 30 hands with 38% fold to 3 bet. Other guy is37/7/2 with 67% fold to cbet, but I was more focused on teh feesh. I raise preflop for value because I'm crushing their ranges. I decide to bet about 3/4 pot on this flop because I think they're calling with a lot of draws and sometimes I'll get a single street of value from small pocket pairs. He's playing pretty aggressive postflop, but I'm not really sure what range to assign his shove. If he's shoving an 8 here it's a snap call because my equity would be a lot better, but in the heat of the moment I put him on 10x or a lot of draws that I would be flipping against. Any ideas?
UTG+1 ($4.21)
MP1 ($4.55)
MP2 ($1.16)
MP3 ($2.82)
CO ($1.99)
Button ($1.45)
SB ($2.60)
Hero (BB) ($2.42)
UTG ($1.97)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K , K
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.02, 2 folds, Button calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.10, MP2 calls $0.10, Button calls $0.10
Flop: ($0.37) 10, 10, 8 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, Button raises $1.33 (All-In)
Hero??
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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How To: Analyze Calling An All-in
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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Imthenewfish
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: sites im allowed to play on
Posts: 945
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Step 1: Identify the size of the pot. This is the size of the pot after your opponent has bet, including all of the money in the pot before your opponent bet and the amount he bet that you're allowed to call.
$1.70
Step 2: Identify the size of the bet. This is how much you're calling.
$1.03
Step 3: Determine your equity by one of the previously mentioned methods (using PokerStove or others).
I'm having trouble finding his shoving range
Step 4: Figure the fraction bet size/(bet size + pot size). If your equity is larger than this, then a call is +EV. If your equity is lower than this, then a call is -EV. If your equity is exactly this, then a call has the same EV as a fold.
1.03/(1.7+1.03)
1.03/2.73
I need about 38% equity to call, please correct me if I'm wrong
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JR9477
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Iowa
Posts: 426
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You did not include your original bet in the final pot size
What hands would he limp/call and shove after your bet on the flop with?
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(Josh)
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Imthenewfish
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: sites im allowed to play on
Posts: 945
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Step 4: Figure the fraction bet size/(bet size + pot size). If your equity is larger than this, then a call is +EV. If your equity is lower than this, then a call is -EV. If your equity is exactly this, then a call has the same EV as a fold.
1/(1.7+0.3+1.03)
1.03/3.03
I need about 34% equity
Range I put him on in pokerstove right now are suited face cards with random kicker of hearts for FD, some connected smaller somewhat connected cards for heart draw, A8,106o+, any suited 10. *edit I also included 88 and 1010
I get 47% equity against this range. I should have called if he is shoving flush draws which I think he is at an agg factor of 7 playing so loose preflop. During the hand I think I put him on a much tighter range. I have to stop giving these maniacs so much credit.
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Hoopy
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Riverballs
Posts: 777
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So he basically a station pre and a semi maniac post - I'd snap call this as he's probably shoving most 8x heart draws and the occasional Tx.
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Carroters
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Da Amberlamps
Posts: 2,216
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snapadoodle. His range has shit like 8x, bag and bags of draws, sure he has a T sometimes, but shit Ibet he even shoves like 77 and junk here cos he's terrible.
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kidsoldja
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Two Pair
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 34
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Easy call. This player is playing 80% of hands but is betting 7 times more often than their calling? Either they are folding to every bet or they are trying to buy every pot.
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ljove
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 80
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I bet you lost this one.
If you won this would not be here
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ljove
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 80
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Sorry I didn't answer.
After last few days of loosing AA and KK i will consider folding here as an option
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eugmac
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 739
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ljove
Sorry I didn't answer.
After last few days of loosing AA and KK i will consider folding here as an option
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Sounds like a terrible thought process.
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Imthenewfish
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: sites im allowed to play on
Posts: 945
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ljove
I bet you lost this one.
If you won this would not be here
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Of course i lost, I said I gave him too much credit. Folding = instaloss ldo
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EasyPoker
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 753
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ljove
I bet you lost this one.
If you won this would not be here
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lol
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[20:19] <Zill4> god
[20:19] <Zill4> u guys
[20:19] <Zill4> so fking hopeless
[20:19] <Zill4> and dumb
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Outlaw
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,033
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Is anyone really going to shove a 10 or 88 here? Not typically. It is most likely a draw.. call here and don't even look at the result, because you won money.
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Outlaw
Is anyone really going to shove a 10 or 88 here? Not typically. It is most likely a draw.. call here and don't even look at the result, because you won money.
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Actually i shove big hands all the time versus the right player. People who think big bets are always bluffs are very easy to exploit. In some cases i don't even need that big of hand to value shove. Just yesterday i happily shoved TPGK on the flop. Why because i was playing a drooler who calls shoves with any peace of the board. Of coarse he sucked out on me but that's not the point. As for the hand i would call. While i think it's silly to think a big bet is always a bluff i think it is a bluff enough of the time for this to be a call. Also villain is likely to think JJ and QQ is da nuts on a board like in the op.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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{Locked}
I think this thread has reached its potential and is heading downhill.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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