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Overpair on drawy flop; facing aggression

  
 
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Penneywize
Old 06-23-2010, 03:15 AM     Post subject: Overpair on drawy flop; facing aggression #1 (permalink)  
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Penneywize will become famous soon enoughPenneywize will become famous soon enough
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Villain is 14/8 over ~40 hands

Villain's preflop range:
QQ-22,ATs+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AJo+

Flop Range following raise:
QcQs,JJ-77,JTs,T9s,98s,87s

Stacks:
UTG twkukoc ($4.78)
UTG+1 qves777 ($5.11)
MP1 Hero ($5)
MP2 jura0507 ($5)
MP3 jenya10 ($7.20)
CO michnur ($1.78)
BTN Alegarh32 ($1.40)
SB PandaTRON21 ($6.42)
BB dflei ($6)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 9 players) Hero is MP1

2 folds, Hero raises to $0.20, jura0507 calls $0.20, 5 folds


Flop: ($0.47, 2 players)


Hero bets $0.40, jura0507 raises to $1.20, Hero?


Alright, a few notes / questions:

- I have no specific reads indicating that our opponent is likely to overplay draws (small sample).

- Of the 7 times villain has seen a flop, he has bet once and raised never. Again, tiny sample...

- Stoving our QQ against villain's range, we have roughly 38.6% equity. If this were a simple all-in calling decision, I think it's fairly close to break-even (we need ~38% equity to call). However, we have 3.60 behind and with two more streets to go, we obviously have to account for the likelihood of facing future bets.

1) Any thoughts on either the preflop or flop ranges I've assigned?

2) Flop sizing?

Any other thoughts/comments would be appreciated as well.
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Fnord
Old 06-23-2010, 04:13 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I like a fold if he's pretty straight forward.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Outlaw
Old 06-23-2010, 04:14 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Pretty miserable spot.. I think its hard to think we are ahead enough here if they money went in on the flop. A lot of his pps, suited connector type hands got there. I really don't have a problem with a fold against this type of player.

Either we are behind or the villain has a lot of equity against us..

As for flop bet sizing, I think its fine.. you want to bet big to cut out any chance of being bluff raised so I think anywhere from .40 to full pot is fine.

If you had some specific read that the villain likes to bluff flops with this texture the hand would obviously play different. But as is, you only have a pair of queens.. there are probably better spots to get it in.
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JKDS
Old 06-23-2010, 04:19 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 Im not so eager to put so many suited connectors in his range. I know its only over 40 hands, but i figure if hes constantly calling with suited connectors then hed also be calling alot with strong broadways and all pps and probably some sutied aces as well...and thats a but load of hands. Further if hes doing that from mp raises i just dont see how he could run so bad as to have only picked up 6 of these over about 40 hands (well, i guess 2 of these assuming his raises were the way top part of that range).

So like, i dont really see that many garbage hands calling u. This isnt to say he never has them, but i think its more like a "if i get one of these crappy hands, ill call a raise every once in awhile". So i kinda lean towards the better of the crap like JTs and like A9-AJ.

I also probably remove QQ and AQ+ since in my experience almost all villains are 3betting these...though a really passive one wont, a 14/8 is probably gonna follow that trend.

So come the flop, its pretty sick. TT, JJ i think would always play this way but 77-99 and A8-A9 are probably calling to trap you or just call down in the case of A9,8.

So like, i think its a pretty interesting spot. It all comes down to how much of that crap you actually put into his range, i dont really give him much and yet its still kinda nasty. Like, say he has two pair and you have odds to draw to a better two pair...are you happy if an 7, 8, or 9 comes? Cuz like, its pretty hard to say which two pair he has so even turns that might improve our equity against his raising range are pretty dicey to play.

I think i fold.
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But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
 
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Fnord
Old 06-23-2010, 05:17 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Sets should be raising here a lot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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caddie444
Old 06-23-2010, 05:44 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 I don't think adding 56s to his range is unreasonable and there's nothing wrong with folding in this spot since he's obv stacking off and I would weight his range in such a way as we prob have about 30% equity ie he'll prob show up more often with sets/made hands than 10-10/J-J OESDS/pairs etc


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