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3betsLighter
Old 02-04-2009, 10:33 AM     Post subject: outs to % #1 (permalink)  

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I am very good with numbers hence the post. I am trying to figure out how to calculate the percentage of time that my outs will hit.

I've been told by a friend to do the following math. Which vaugely makes sense to me.

1-3 Outs: Outs x 2 = % of hitting
3-11 Outs: (Outs x 2) + 1 = % of hitting
12+ Outs: (Outs X 2) + 2 = % of hitting

(flop 47/outs)
(river 46/outs)

OUTS TURN RIVER
1 2.13% 2.17%
2 4.26% 4.35%
3 6.38% 6.52%
4 8.51% 8.70%
5 10.64% 10.87%
6 12.77% 13.04%
7 14.89% 15.22%
8 17.02% 17.39%
9 19.15% 19.57%
10 21.23% 21.47%
11 23.40% 23.91%
12 25.53% 26.09%
13 27.66% 28.26%
14 29.79% 30.43%
15 31.91% 32.61%
16 34.04% 34.76%
17 36.17% 36.96%
18 38.30% 39.13%
19 40.43% 41.30%
20 42.55% 43.48%
21 44.68% 45.65%

HOWEVER.... I've come across this today and I am completely stumped by the % differences......
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dranger7070
Old 02-04-2009, 10:44 AM #2 (permalink)  
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The way I do it at the table is to use the rule of 4 or the rule of 2.

Basically, all you do is add up your outs and multiply them by 4 if ur going to call both the turn AND river bets, then add 2. That number will give you an APPROXIMATE estimate of your equity.

The rule of two is the same except you are looking to call just one street. So you add all your outs, multiply by 2 and add 2. That number is ur equity.

Hope that helps!
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3betsLighter
Old 02-04-2009, 09:42 PM #3 (permalink)  

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Have been doing ALOT of reading on this today. I have my answer now so its all guuuud! I am going to try and explain what i have learnt today. (only to prove that i have learnt something not brag!! lol)

My question was on the disparity between the websites %'s imaged chart %'s with 2 cards to come. ie 9 outs = 35% on imaged chart but on the list 9 outs = 19.15% and I way extremely confused by the big difference!

I have since worked out that the website got the 19.15% calculation wrong!!!

With 2 cards to come they are only dividing 9/47 = 19.15%
And 1 card to come they have divided 9/46 = 19.57%

Whereas with 2 cards to come they should have {9-47/47}*{9-46/46}=0.6503 then minus this from 1 to get .3497 or 34.96% rounded up to 35% on chart! wooohoo

1 card to come would be {9-46}/46=.8043, minus 1 =0.1956 (19.56%!!)

Its ridicoulous how much poor information there is out there on pot odds, really confused me but i did come across a couple gems, as per your 4 and 2 rules, a little spin on the x2 rule makes it much more accurate.

1 to 3 outs = x2
3 to 11 outs = x2+1
11+ outs = x2+2

Cant get the table to layout properly but column 1=Outs, colume 2 =(46-9/46), column 3=Outs x 2, column4=diff, column5=Outs x 2 + 0 or 1 or 2, column6=diff.

basically you reduce the difference from 3.48 to 1.5 at the biggest variance.

20 43.48% 40.00% -3.48% 42.00% -1.48%
19 41.30% 38.00% -3.30% 40.00% -1.30%
18 39.13% 36.00% -3.13% 38.00% -1.13%
17 36.96% 34.00% -2.96% 36.00% -0.96%
16 34.78% 32.00% -2.78% 34.00% -0.78%
15 32.61% 30.00% -2.61% 32.00% -0.61%
14 30.43% 28.00% -2.43% 30.00% -0.43%
13 28.26% 26.00% -2.26% 28.00% -0.26%
12 26.09% 24.00% -2.09% 26.00% -0.09%
11 23.91% 22.00% -1.91% 24.00% 0.09%
10 21.74% 20.00% -1.74% 21.00% -0.74%
9 19.57% 18.00% -1.57% 19.00% -0.57%
8 17.39% 16.00% -1.39% 17.00% -0.39%
7 15.22% 14.00% -1.22% 15.00% -0.22%
6 13.04% 12.00% -1.04% 13.00% -0.04%
5 10.87% 10.00% -0.87% 11.00% 0.13%
4 8.70% 8.00% -0.70% 9.00% 0.30%
3 6.52% 6.00% -0.52% 6.00% -0.52%
2 4.35% 4.00% -0.35% 4.00% -0.35%
1 2.17% 2.00% -0.17% 2.00% -0.17%

woohoo i get math, omg! pls correct me if anything is wrong, pls also provide any links to must read threads on this topic+pot equity.
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Old 02-04-2009, 10:16 PM #4 (permalink)  
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No, it's the difference between two cards to come and one card to come.
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Stacks
Old 02-05-2009, 02:57 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 Trying to become precisely accurate isn't going to help at the tables. You have limited time to make a decision, so being approximate is all you need. Also you aren't always going to be looking at just the pot odds. But you will also be trying to factor in implied odds, and you can't really be exact when dealing with implied odds.
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HarleyGuy13
Old 02-05-2009, 09:09 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 OMG....Stacks do you remember who the MOD is in here now!

Makes me laugh cuz I read an old thread a couple days ago that was fuking hilarious. spenda/swiggy and others went crazy over this topic.
"You start the game with a full pot o’ luck and an empty pot o’ experience...
The object is to fill the pot of experience before you empty the pot of luck."

Quote:
Originally Posted by XxStacksxX View Post
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-05-2009, 09:16 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 stacks for president IMO
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

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http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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dranger7070
Old 02-05-2009, 09:17 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Nah, stacks AVATAR for prez imo.
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-05-2009, 09:44 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by dranger7070
Nah, stacks AVATAR for prez imo.
She would do better as a secretary :O
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Sir Pawnalot
Old 02-05-2009, 11:14 PM #10 (permalink)  
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When you are counting outs you must keep in mind that some outs may be tainted. F.ex a flushdraw against a bigger flushdraw, AK overcards versus KT on T, 8, 2 flop etc.

And yeah- Stacks contributions are invaluable, even though not everybody is appreciative. Keep it up!
A foolish man learns nothing from his mistakes.
A smart man learns only from his own mistakes.
A wise man learns from his own mistakes, and those of the smart man and the fool.
 
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Robb
Old 02-06-2009, 02:00 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HarleyGuy13
OMG....Stacks do you remember who the MOD is in here now!

Makes me laugh cuz I read an old thread a couple days ago that was fuking hilarious. spenda/swiggy and others went crazy over this topic.
pm me link?
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Stacks
Old 02-06-2009, 02:07 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
Quote:
Originally Posted by HarleyGuy13
OMG....Stacks do you remember who the MOD is in here now!

Makes me laugh cuz I read an old thread a couple days ago that was fuking hilarious. spenda/swiggy and others went crazy over this topic.
pm me link?
I believe this is the thread he is referring to.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ht-t39853.html
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