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fkn2pt
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03-04-2005, 08:53 PM
Post subject: one for the mathematicians...
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Sydney Australia
Posts: 35
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hi,
i would like to know what the combined odds would be for flopping a hand bigger than one pair with low suited connector cards, for arguments sake lets say 4d5d.
so this would include flopping:
2 pair (2% i think)
straight (a flop of A23, 236, 367 etc all included)
flush (0.8% i think)
trips (either a flop of 44J or 55K or something like that)
i failed math in high school so i'm not really sure of the formulas for trips or straights. for arguments sake exclude drawing hands (ie i'm not interested in straight / flush draws).
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giantdogs92
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 52
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id help but i suck at math
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"If you even dream of beating me you'd better wake up and apoligize" -Muhammed Ali
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...pic.php?t=7816
Roughly 5% of the time you'll flop a made hand of 2 pair or better. A bit less than 10% of the time you'll have such a hand by the river (though getting it by the river doesn't necessarily mean it will win).
- Jeffrey
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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To paraphrase myself (removing the math):
2 pair: 2.25%
Trips: 1.5%
Flush: 0.8%
Straight: 0.22%
Note that times that you flop a full house or quads are already included in 2 pair + trips, so these do not need to be calculated separately.
- Jeffrey
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fkn2pt
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Sydney Australia
Posts: 35
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thanks!
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Pyroxene
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 236
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
To paraphrase myself (removing the math):
2 pair: 2.25%
Trips: 1.5%
Flush: 0.8%
Straight: 0.22%
Note that times that you flop a full house or quads are already included in 2 pair + trips, so these do not need to be calculated separately.
- Jeffrey
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One of those numbers seemed odd so I looked it up. The chance of flopping a straight with connectors that can hit low and high is about 1.3%. Source 'Winner's guide to Texas Hold'em Poker', Ken Warren; page 202.
The other numbers all match up, but to spell something out explicitly the 2.25% chance of flopping 2 pair is the chance of flopping one of each of your hole cards. Flopping 1 of your hole cards and the other two cards pairing would also be 2 pair but it not very desirable. There is a little more than a 2% chance of that happening as well.
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Pyroxene
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pyroxene
One of those numbers seemed odd so I looked it up. The chance of flopping a straight with connectors that can hit low and high is about 1.3%. Source 'Winner's guide to Texas Hold'em Poker', Ken Warren; page 202.
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Does he go through the calculations? I believe you completely, but would like to see where I went wrong...
- Jeffrey
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Pyroxene
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 236
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
Does he go through the calculations? I believe you completely, but would like to see where I went wrong...
- Jeffrey
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No sir, he does not. It is just a table of all starting hands and their chance to hit various things on the flop. Warren's book separates out straight flush, four of a kind, fullhouse, flush, straight, trips, two pair and pair. That makes the calculations annoyingly tricky of course. I will look around and see if I can find the calculations.
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Pyroxene
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