www.flopturnriver.com

Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

Already Registered? Username: Password: Remember Forgot Password
Tweet

Ok Spot for a Bluff?

LinkBack

Thread Tools

Display Modes

texa8

03-09-2009, 12:42 PM Post subject: Ok Spot for a Bluff?

#1 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Oct 2008

Location: Melbourne Australia

Posts: 207

21/18... is this an ok spot for a bluff after that float?

also, do the remaining outs (tens) make this a semi bluff??

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (CO) ($9.78)
Button ($3.35)
SB ($7.23)
BB ($11.38)
UTG ($1.61)
UTG+1 ($2.82)
MP1 ($11.12)
MP2 ($10.55)
MP3 ($19.60)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q

, A

5 folds, Hero bets $0.35, 2 folds, BB raises to $1.10, Hero calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.25) 9

, K

, J

(2 players)
BB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.25) 2

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7.18 (All-In)

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!

L_Clan_Sup3rMaN

03-09-2009, 12:59 PM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2007

Posts: 833

L_Clan_Sup3rMaN is on a distinguished road

10 outs? what kind of hand are you putting him on after he 3bets OOP that would leave you with 10 outs?

You quoted 21/18 as his stats, but his 3bet % over how many hands would be more important here than 21/18 over an undefined amount of hands.

texa8

03-09-2009, 01:02 PM

#3 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Oct 2008

Location: Melbourne Australia

Posts: 207

my outs are 10's for a straight, not 10 outs.
Yeah sorry this was over 87 hands, and im not sure about his 3bet sorry.

L_Clan_Sup3rMaN

03-09-2009, 01:11 PM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2007

Posts: 833

Oops, read it as 10 outs.

21/18 is quite loose for FR (but over only 87 hands) but you have no 3bet history or if he C/F turn after cbetting flop?

Semibluffing works well having around 8 or more outs, on the flop. Having only say 4 outs (maybe the aces as well) on the turn isn't really a good spot. Your pretty much only looking at FE here.

If the stats is all you have and without solid reads, this is a bad spot to bluff, especially at micros since they might look you up light. For this to be profitable, you would need reads and rely heavily on FE. Trying this on a player without specific reads about his 3betting/flop/turn tendencies is spewy.

Muzzard

03-09-2009, 02:22 PM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: Cheshire, UK

Posts: 1,843

what are you repping when you dont raise flop but overshove turn.

Erpel

03-09-2009, 03:22 PM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2008

Posts: 605

General rule of bluffs: If you have to ask if it's a good spot for a bluff it's not.

Reasoning: Bluffs are only profitable if you have good reason to think that your opponent is folding some of the time. In other words, they require SOLID READS and knowledge of the opponents tendencies.

In the present hand we can all speculate on what the villain is playing in this way, but we only have the one hand history to base our assumptions on - you, when playing, presumably had more. Maybe you also have a timing tell that suggests that he's weak or whatever.

It would be nice to know here if it's the first time villain has 3bet out of the blinds in response to an apparent blind steal. Or if it's first time he's 3bet period.

It would be nice to know if the villain is someone who cbets every time he makes the last preflop raise (has the initiative).

It would be nice to know if the villain is generally highly likely to bet - since he only hits the flop so often a high likelihood of betting can signify a high bluff percentage.

It would be nice to know if villain tends to slowplay monsters. He 3bet here and at these limits 3bets are often KK/AA/AK, both of which are monsters on this flop. True, he SHOULD bet them to price out the apparent flush draw, but if he always slowplays monsters he may be prone to incorrectly doing it here also. If so, his flop bet is more likely to be a bluff and less likely to be value.

Basic point, if you don't know your opponents hand ranges for the actions he's taken and likely playing tendencies then you cannot profitably bluff him.

Calling behind with AQo is fine here preflop because you're in position - but just calling preflop without a plan is bad because of the amount of money going in. Preflop you need to have a clear idea what kind of flops you are looking to continue on and have a good understanding of what your opponents likely cbet means. Does he cbet here every time he has 3bet you preflop or is he rarely cbetting and if he does what does it mean? If you say that you can't fold the flop to one bet then when you are making your preflop call you are effectively calling a full quarter of your stack because you expect to call off the cbet without being any the wiser.

Is your opponent aggressive both pre ad post flop?
Is your opponent positionally aware (what's his attempt to steal%)? If he is positionally aware he is more likely to consider your bet a blind steal and more likely to be playing back at it.
Is your opponent a habitual 3bettor? Has he 3bet before in any situaion?
Do you have a loose image, or an image as a blind stealer?
Do you have weak tight post flop tendencies?
Do you call 3bets often in position? Often enough to widen your perceived hand range here to include QT?
Does your opponent cbet almost always?

Any yeses to this list of questions makes it more likely that you can profitably semi-bluff in this hand. IF you can semi-bluff in my opinion the street to pull the all-in semi-bluff is the flop. On the flop you have 4 outs twice, and the ace is sometimes also an out. With a good number of yeses you should have decent fold equity as both more of his range will be air and less of your perceived range will be. And on the flop you get your outs (4 or 7) twice and not just once.

When the turn comes it looks kind of innocent, but unfortunately I'm not sure it helps your bluffing chances. For the semi-bluff aspect whatever outs you have you now have only once. Also it puts two hearts on the board and the shove by you is more likely to be seen as a heart draw than a made hand.

In either case I think I would be more comfortable with a flop semi-bluff all-in if the board was rainbow and you had some of the indicators mentioned here known to you and strongly in your favour.

But I spew.

dev

03-09-2009, 03:52 PM

#7 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Location: swonging and swonging

Posts: 1,550

The spot isn't bad but the stack sizes make the numbers messy. If we had a little bit more, the best bluff line would be to raise the flop to 4ish and then push the turn. As it stands we'd be betting $4.68 into a $10.20. A microlimit FR player who runs 21/18 isn't likely to be folding anything there.

Check out my self-deprecation here!

texa8

03-09-2009, 11:41 PM

#8 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Oct 2008

Location: Melbourne Australia

Posts: 207

nice post erpel..

Yes i had be stealing a very high % of the time and was getting away with it.
This player seemed to be cbetting i guess a regular tagish percent of the time.

However, this move i guess was very intuitive. My line thoughts would be something like:

Preflop: not too sure about villians range but if hes observant its likely hes playing back at a perceived blind steal with a pocket pair, suited connectors, A10+, A5s+ eg...

Flop: i look at this flop and it appears to be very wet. villian cbets, but the biggest thing i take from it is its size. if he has a hand, whether strong or medium made lets say AJ, AK, Kx, Jx maybe 9x, IMO the cbet size would be larger. My feeling is he wants to keep initiative but does not want to commit that much chips into such a wet board as a cbet bluff. So i float.

Turn: i guess the check is consistant with my thinking on the flop, and im thinking either a weak made hand or draw.. as i dont really think ive got any showdown value i go on that read and make a play for the pot..

I guess when u act on instinct like that rather than based on solid reads it becomes quite spewish i agree.

03-10-2009, 12:47 AM

#9 (permalink)

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muzzard

what are you repping when you dont raise flop but overshove turn.

he's repping a flush draw obv

texa8

03-10-2009, 12:57 AM

#10 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Oct 2008

Location: Melbourne Australia

Posts: 207

actually (and i feel ashamed to say it) im not sure what im try to rep here. I think its more likely im protecting a made hand like AK, KQ than shoving on a draw...

texa8

03-10-2009, 01:45 AM

#11 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Oct 2008

Location: Melbourne Australia

Posts: 207

despite my bad play..

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (CO) ($9.78)
Button ($3.35)
SB ($7.23)
BB ($11.38)
UTG ($1.61)
UTG+1 ($2.82)
MP1 ($11.12)
MP2 ($10.55)
MP3 ($19.60)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q

, A

5 folds, Hero bets $0.35, 2 folds, BB raises to $1.10, Hero calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.25) 9

, K

, J

(2 players)
BB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.25) 2

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7.18 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $5.25 | Rake: $0.35

dev

03-10-2009, 07:36 AM

#12 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Location: swonging and swonging

Posts: 1,550

Better question:
Microstakes player 3betting pre, cbetting the flop and checking the turn... What's he repping?

Check out my self-deprecation here!

texa8

03-10-2009, 12:24 PM

#13 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Oct 2008

Location: Melbourne Australia

Posts: 207

Quote:

Better question:
Microstakes player 3betting pre, cbetting the flop and checking the turn... What's he repping?

my first guess is an underpair... i like TT

03-11-2009, 01:14 AM

#14 (permalink)

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by dev

Better question:
Microstakes player 3betting pre, cbetting the flop and checking the turn... What's he repping?

Air, Kxs, QQ
if he has air he snap folds, if he has Kxs or QQ he feels his hand is not strong enough to bet for protection but good enough to call a shove since you have air in your range shoving the turn

TT is more likely to c/c flop

texa8

03-11-2009, 02:02 AM

#15 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Oct 2008

Location: Melbourne Australia

Posts: 207

AT, AQ makes sense as well and would be in his range IMO.. those hands would be played pretty similar to how he played his hand; probably looking for a check behind or ok odds to call for straight...

I include AT on the assumption he's an observant player and has seen me steal a lot of blinds (his mainly) and feels this hand is good to play back with.

trippyhippie

03-11-2009, 05:21 AM

#16 (permalink)

Join Date: Mar 2009

Location: elkhart, in

Posts: 20

lets go with him preventing the steal with the 3bet. now i'd put him on a ATs+, QQ+, Kx, and possibly Qx depending on plays he'd made in the past. With his c-bet, I'm putting him then on a draw, weak pair, air, or bottom 2pr depending how he's played those in the past. the check confirms this as he wasn't confident.

His c-bet was a little less than 3/4ths, so I'd probably mix between calling and re-raising in this and similar situations with the same player. but again that depends on previous reads since we are also on a draw. if he had c/r you on turn, i'd fold

Latest Poker News
KoRnholio	05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ... more at Poker Blogs »

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Trackbacks are On Pingbacks are On Refbacks are On Forum Rules

All times are GMT. The time now is 05:47 AM.

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum

This is not a gambling website.

Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

Poker Forum

Beginners Circle

Ok Spot for a Bluff?

Play for FREE and practice your game at...