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ok question about math, warning LONG

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philly and the phanatics

08-07-2009, 07:20 AM Post subject: ok question about math, warning LONG

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Dec 2006

Posts: 1,109

philly and the phanatics is a jewel in the rough

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($7.12)
MP1 ($2.05)
Hero (MP2) ($3.78)
MP3 ($3.81)
CO ($5)
Button ($4.64)
SB ($0.34)
BB ($0.96)
UTG ($1.68)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q

, A

UTG bets $0.06, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.14, MP3 calls $0.14, 2 folds, SB calls $0.13, 1 fold, UTG raises to $1.68 (All-In), [color=#666666] hero folds

This one was tricky for me. MP3 was 70/17 over only 12 hands, he had been pretty much dead money, probably makes this play with any ace. SB is a shorty so he is shoving hella wide. 40/11 over 50 hands, i could see him doing this with most low pp's and ax also, maybe even q10 suited or a hand like that. the one who worries me the most was UTG, the original raiser. 45/6 over 50 hands lol, he had been relatively passive and this type of aggression was abnormal from him. It was the only time he 3bet (well i guess 4bet) and i think with at least one of my aces or queens gone via the other 2 players, i think i will lose to a pp.

looking at pot odds i am 1.38:1. I can probably assume that sb is going to call , idk about the mega fish behind me though....probably will too. in which case i am getting huge pot odds but the only prob is i wouldnt be all in (unless i shoved over the guy behind me), idk its tough....

this one was a tough one to pokerstove because i dont really know what ranges i need to apply and what not. But assuming i push all in:

After how everyone reacted to the original 3bet by me i put everyones range on:

Me: aqo
MP3: 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,A6o+,KJo+,QJo
SB: 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KJo+
UTG: 99+,AQs+,AKo

ok so thanks to the formula i just got off yaawn on irc:

if i push and the other 2 fold, i have 42% pot odds, and 37.4% equity. 1.68 into 3.96 for a total of 5.64

If i push and only mp3 calls, i am putting in 3.64 to make 12.24, giving me 29.7% pot odds. I think that he will call my original bet with the range i posted above, and continue with all pocketpairs, a8+, kj+,qjs,j10s , so he will be folding 27 percent of the time. (i have 29% equity when he calls and sb folds)

Bc the sb is so short i think its fair to put him at 100% call with any range that called my original bet. so he is 0% fold%. with him in the pot i sweeten my pot odds to 29.26 (i have 19 % equity when both call, and 26%equity when mp folds and sb calls)

percent both fold= 0% (sb) * 27% (mp)= 0
percent both call= 100% * 73%= 73%

forumula goes like:

(0 (percent both fold) *.374 (equity vs UTG) *5.64 (pot with just me and utg)) (0*(.626*5.64) + ((.27 (%fold for mp) * .29 (equity if only mp calls) *12.24) - (.27 * 71*12.24)) + ((0 (fold equity of sb) *.26 *5.84 (pot with just me utg and sb))- (0* .74*5.84)) + ((.73 (percent both call) * .19 * 12.44) -(.73*81*12.44) =

0 for the first part bc sb is not folding + (-1.388) + 0 for the sb folding part+ (-5.6303)= - $7.01 so it is a clear fold....i hope i did this right. Cause gdamn did that take a long time.

after thinking about it i have to be doing something wrong in my formula, because i dont think its possible to lose 7 dollars every time i push here being as i only have 3.78 to begin with. and i think it is the middle chunk (the parts where i am configuring for only one caller), idk first if anyone has gotten this far, thanks and sorry if i have wasted your time, but second if anyone could look at it and help me with where i am going wrong i would forever be indebted to you.

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clvacva

08-07-2009, 07:46 AM

#2 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Nov 2008

Posts: 200

Not sure why you are 3betting and UTG open from an opponent who so far has only raised 6% of hands although it is a small sample.
And 3bet size looks very small .
Call or fold pre
sorry did not look at the math. Too much analysis for this particular spot

philly and the phanatics

08-07-2009, 08:08 AM

#3 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Dec 2006

Posts: 1,109

yea i understand that the analysis is excessive for this spot, i just wanted to know how to do it in general for the future.

08-07-2009, 06:06 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Posts: n/a

Yo Philly you screwed something up dude. :P I g2g now or I'd do it. Anyway you can't have -$7.01 equity when we didn't have 7.01 in the first place.

08-07-2009, 07:03 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Posts: n/a

well so we only have two cases:
SB calls, and both call

so only analyze those two lidog
SB calls:
we have 25.58% equity for the 96c pot vs. sb/utg
we have 33.31% equity for the $2.68 pot vs. utg
that's $.2456 + $.8927 ~=1.14
we're putting in 1.54 into the pot so that's a $.4 loss

both call:
we have 20% equity for the $1.30 main pot
we have 25% equity for the $4.02 side pot vs. utg
we have 58% equity for the $4.20 side pot vs. MP3

$.26 + $1.005 + $2.436 = $3.7
we put in an additional $3.64 into the pot, so we're +$0.06

both cases assuming SB calls 73% of the time
0.06*.73 + (-.4 * .27) ~= -0.06
you lose 6 cents when you do this, and also rake

protip: pokerstove takes less time when you type in AsQd than AQo

philly and the phanatics

08-08-2009, 03:33 AM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Dec 2006

Posts: 1,109

thanks iopq that was very helpful, i know this probably wasnt a hand that needed that much analysis but i needed to know how to do this correctly

Robb

08-08-2009, 01:40 PM

#7 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 3,072

Robb is an unknown quantity at this point

Quote:

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

thanks iopq that was very helpful, i know this probably wasnt a hand that needed that much analysis but i needed to know how to do this correctly

Good thread, philly. I over-analyzed a spot with tons of math and someone (Griffey or Bode or someone like that) called it mathturbation.

I lol'd.

You gotta do some maths to learn how it all works and how it applies to game play.

@IOPQ - thanks for digging through that math and helping out - I'm too brain dead to do it myself right now.

My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against

Keith

08-08-2009, 04:27 PM

#8 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Nov 2008

Posts: 1,336

is UTG really gonna be 4 bet shoving over 3bettor and a caller with 99+? Wouldn't it be something a lot tighter like QQ+ and maybe AK in which case most of this range is going to have you beaten and even if you imprive you're likely to still be behind?

littleogre

08-09-2009, 09:46 AM

#9 (permalink)

Join Date: Oct 2004

Posts: 1,344

littleogre has a little shameless behaviour in the past

I think your 3-bet preflop accomplished several things. Unfortunatly for you they were all bad. You bloated the pot when you are likely well behind his range. Also you reopened the pot with a hand that can't really stand a raise.

08-09-2009, 10:57 AM

#10 (permalink)

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keith_MM

is UTG really gonna be 4 bet shoving over 3bettor and a caller with 99+?

this is 2NL and he didn't even buy in for 100BB, what do you think?

Roller

08-11-2009, 03:16 AM

#11 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: May 2009

Posts: 168

Roller has a little shameless behaviour in the past

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robb

Quote:

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

thanks iopq that was very helpful, i know this probably wasnt a hand that needed that much analysis but i needed to know how to do this correctly

mathturbation

Now thats Flippen Fun EEEE.

Definition:
Mathturbation: The act of mathturbating something until it's maxed it's point of no return.

Used in a Sentence:
He mathturbated that poker hand until it spewed the facts as unrecognisable integers of the whole.
What ???

LMAO

Nice

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ok question about math, warning LONG

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