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odds for turn and river call, please explain

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Borax

02-21-2005, 12:27 PM Post subject: odds for turn and river call, please explain

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Feb 2005

Location: Norway

Posts: 584

I tried my first regular game this weekend sitting down at a .25/.50 table with 50$. I found the play at this table to be very different from the tournament tables, more difficult to now what people were holding.
I'm not good with odds, so I make mistakes and could use some help..

Play:
10 players
Borax gets (Qc 9c)
3 folds
2 callers X and Y
Borax raises 2$
X and Y calls
rest folds
flop (Ah Ac Qd)
X checks
Y checks
Borax bets 5$
X calls
Y folds
Turn (Jc)
Borax bets 5$
X raises 5+10$
Borax calls 10$
River (6s)
X bets 12$ and is All in
Borax calls 12$ (25$ left)
X shows (Kh Ts) straight A high
X wins pot.

I figured that after the turn I had a flush draw and some outs for a full house, thinking that it would be worth seeing the river

When I didn't get my flush or house I guess I should have folded. I called because people had been betting all kind of crap all evening...but I had no good read on this player. Okay, I now I didn't play well here, but could anyone please tell me how I should have played it. I need to learn

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Corey

02-21-2005, 03:00 PM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Oct 2004

Location: Oklahoma City, OK

Posts: 1,349

wow aggressive play to raise with Q9. Hopefully you had good position. If you were early position easy fold or limp in.

Your bet on the flop was good driving out anyone with out an ace. When that player called he has either a gutshot draw or trips. He chased and hit. You did the same but didnt.

He has got you beat if he has an ace. Not sure why you kept betting once you got raised on the turn.

Corey

Borax

02-21-2005, 03:25 PM

#3 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Feb 2005

Location: Norway

Posts: 584

Thanx for comment.

Point taken - I also usually fold this kind of hand (Q9s).
I had late position and the table was quite easy to spook with small initial raises and I had shown a couple of pretty strong hands prior to this one.

I was also pretty sure he was going for a straight and didn't have an ace, which turned out to be true. I didn't have a good read on his style of play, but he had been betting his aces very hard a few hands earlier.

My question is mainly for the turn and the river. How should I calculate here to make the right decision?

rdqlus

02-21-2005, 07:59 PM

#4 (permalink)

Join Date: Jan 2005

Posts: 64

Your pot odds calculation in this hand isn't really all that important. His re-raise on the turn means that he thought he had you beat.

Anyways, the pot odds calculation to determine if you should call his $10 re-raise is as follows:

The money in the pot was $36 (or so) and you needed to call a $10 bet. That means that there is a $46 pot to be won. So, your pot odds percentage is 21.7% (10/46). You have 9 outs to complete your flush draw so that's about 17-18%. Which is less than your pot odds so you should fold. What makes it worse is that the board is paired ... so even if you do hit your flush you could be beaten by a full house anyways.

Hope that helps (some people use odds instead of percentages ... I was never very good at those so I stick with % - works for me)

mj

RD Olivaw

02-21-2005, 09:02 PM Post subject: Re: odds for turn and river call, please explain

#5 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Dallas,TX

Posts: 228

Quote:

Originally Posted by Borax

Okay, I now I didn't play well here, but could anyone please tell me how I should have played it. I need to learn

Fold pre-flop. There are very few flops that make this a great hand. There lots of flops that make this a 2nd best hand.

<Ripptyde> I either steal.....have the nuts...or fold

BL Mike

02-21-2005, 09:56 PM Post subject: Re: odds for turn and river call, please explain

#6 (permalink)

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by RD Olivaw

Fold pre-flop. There are very few flops that make this a great hand. There lots of flops that make this a 2nd best hand.

Exactly right. For a relatively inexperienced cash game player, this hand has danger written all over it. Much more likely a 2nd best hand than a 1st.

Borax

02-22-2005, 08:17 AM

#7 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Feb 2005

Location: Norway

Posts: 584

Thanx for calculation rdqlus:
But wouldn't the possible full house add some outs to the calculation?
If 9 flush outs gives 17-18%
Then adding 2 A and 2 Q = 4 outs should give a total of 13 outs and then push the odds above the 21.7 % for making the call? (Cause Ac and Qc are allready in play.)

Cavalry21

02-22-2005, 01:54 PM

#8 (permalink)

Join Date: Feb 2005

Location: Cleveland, OH

Posts: 61

Quote:

Originally Posted by Borax

Not exactly. You're right that it increases the chance of you improving your hand, but not necessarily to a winning hand. If your put your opponent on Axo or the like, your flush beats his trip aces, while an A or a Q there and you are still beat.

RD Olivaw

02-22-2005, 02:54 PM

#9 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Dallas,TX

Posts: 228

Quote:

Originally Posted by Borax

You want to be holding an Ace in this hand. Otherwise you might be drawing dead. Lets say the Q comes - oh great, I made my full house - but so did he, Aces full. Fold pre-flop!!

<Ripptyde> I either steal.....have the nuts...or fold

RiverMonkey

02-22-2005, 07:16 PM

#10 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Nov 2004

Posts: 446

Quote:

Originally Posted by rdqlus

Anyways, the pot odds calculation to determine if you should call his $10 re-raise is as follows:

The money in the pot was $36 (or so) and you needed to call a $10 bet. That means that there is a $46 pot to be won. So, your pot odds percentage is 21.7% (10/46). You have 9 outs to complete your flush draw so that's about 17-18%. Which is less than your pot odds so you should fold. What makes it worse is that the board is paired ... so even if you do hit your flush you could be beaten by a full house anyways.

Hope that helps (some people use odds instead of percentages ... I was never very good at those so I stick with % - works for me)

mj

You do not count the $-amount you are about to call as already being in the pot when you calculate pot odds. You want to know what your possible pay off is relative to how much new money you need to immediately invest to possibly win the current pot size. It's all about risk versus reward. By analogy, when you make an investment in stocks, you don't consider how much you have to invest up-front to be part of your eventual profits. You initial investment is what you risk, and your profits are your rewards.

So, in this example, your pot odds are: 36:10 or 3.6:1

In other words, the pot is immediately paying you $3.6 for every $1 additional dollar you put at risk to win it.

In general,
immediate pot odds = current pot size/immediate call amount

Many players use the following formula to make immediate pot odds based decisions:

[pots odds]*[number of clean outs] = x

By immediate pot odds considerations alone, if x> [number of cards left in deck - # of clean outs] (where "cards left in deck" is 47 or 46 depending on which street you are on) you should call.

(to check the math yourself, set [pot odds = pot$/call$]*[# of clean outs] equal to [number of cards left in deck - # of clean outs] and you can prove to yourself that is defines the break even point defined by pot$/call$ = cards that help/cards that don't = outs/[# of un-seen cards - outs].

Technically, "# of cards left in deck" is a slightly deceiving phrase because some of those cards "in the deck" are actually already in the muck pile, in the burn pile, or in your remaining opponents hands, but because they are considered unknown you treat that them as "left in the deck" unless you know otherwise. A better phrase would be "# of unseen cards"

Note that the is an immediate pot odds calculation; it ignores the cost of possible future bets, as well as implied odds.

Note also, for good reasons (see post listed below for justifications), many players use 45 rather than 46 or 47 in the above calcs.

You should also be able to prove for yourself that another good, quick, at-the-table way to determine whether calling is immediately EV-neutral is the use the following formula:

[# of clean outs]*[pot odds + 1] = x

if x >= [# of unseen cards] that's good and you call, if x<[# of unseen cards] you either fold or start considering whether implied odds might help you to still call.

Again, I also need to stress that these are immediate pot odds calculations and do not necessarily apply straight-forwardly if you will have to call additional bets on later streets. You'll have to use effective pot odds for that, which requires making assumptions about future action in that hand.

Another minor point; we've ignored the rake in the above calcs. Unless of course, it has been max'ed already and taken out of the pot when you count immediate pot size, in which case, it has been completely accounted for.

I hope this helps!

See:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...highlight=odds

for (another, since this one has become a little long too

) extensive thread about pot odd calcs.

Greedo017

02-22-2005, 07:18 PM

#11 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005

Location: wearing the honors of honor and whatnot

Posts: 1,461

i was under the impression pot odds were calculated by doing the amount of the bet divided by the amount already in the pot, not counting that bet. so it would be 10/36 for 27% needed to call, to which you're not even close.

*edit: well i guess i'm just a slow typer.

RiverMonkey

02-22-2005, 07:59 PM

#12 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Nov 2004

Posts: 446

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedo017

My advice is to not trust what you are told by others, act or think based on impressions, or one-offs you've read somewhere.

If you really want to have a deep understanding and appreciation for poker concepts, my personal feeling is you should think through the fundamentals for yourself, run the formulas, and always think about first principles. Use the basics and work everything out for yourself once, twice as many times as you need to convince yourself about the whys, hows and wheres.

Once you do you'll likely never forget, and even if you do you'll be able to re-derive and/or re-convince yourself using your solid foundational knowledge.

Memorization is great for quick recall, but often fades with time. If you truely understand the underlying whys of a certain formula, or concept you'll be way better off in the long run.

RD Olivaw

02-22-2005, 09:28 PM

#13 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Dallas,TX

Posts: 228

Of course if you want the definitive reference on poker probabilty, just buy Theory of Poker by Sklansky

<Ripptyde> I either steal.....have the nuts...or fold

RiverMonkey

02-22-2005, 09:47 PM

#14 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Nov 2004

Posts: 446

Quote:

Originally Posted by RD Olivaw

Of course if you want the definitive reference on poker probabilty, just buy Theory of Poker by Sklansky

Yes, excellent book. I recommend it without one ounce of hesitation.

There's also that 'Hold'em Book of Odds' or whatever by (can't rememver author, can some one else?) which seems to be highly recommended. I don't know if it's just charts and results or the author shows how results are derived.

Greedo017

02-22-2005, 09:57 PM

#15 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005

Location: wearing the honors of honor and whatnot

Posts: 1,461

thinking through pot odds is tricky to me. i know how to do it, but i don't really truly understand why it works.

say the turn gets checked and there are no implied odds. 5 dollar pot on the flop, other guy bets 5 dollars.

if you make this call 100 times. total loss = 500 dollars. total gain = 35 * 15 = 525. so, then wouldn't making this call be worth it, if you could assume a turn check? but everyone always says pot bets kill your pot odds?

now, if you take into account the turn, you're probably gonna go under making this call. but most pot odds, at least the simple one explained on here, don't take into account the turn do they?

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odds for turn and river call, please explain

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