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Odds on flopping a Str8 or a flush
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DrNoChance
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06-26-2004, 10:13 PM
Post subject: Odds on flopping a Str8 or a flush
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 411
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I'm sure somebody knows the odds on this, but I don't.
What are the odds of flopping a Str8 or a flush with:
Suited connectors? (67s, 78s)
Suited one holers? (57s, J9s)
What are the odds of making a Str8 or a flush when all 5 cards are seen with the same hand types as above (like with an all-in situation)?
What are the odds of flopping a Str8 or a flush DRAW with the above hand types?
I'm trying to decide what the real value of these hands are when you are playing with large stacks relative to the size of the blinds.
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Toasty
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: England UK
Posts: 1,522
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when you have two suited cards the odds of making a flush from the comm cards are around 6.5%
straights depend on the hole cards as diff hole cards can make a diff amount of straights with TJ being the best, as all of the straights it makes using both cards are the nut straight.
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michael1123
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Rochester Hills, MI
Posts: 1,720
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Interesting. So JT suited is a pretty damn solid hand, eh?
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DrNoChance
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Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 411
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Not really (at least in No limit), IMO.
JTs does have a slight edge against any pocket pair of 99 or lower, whereas something like AKo is actually a slight underdog. However, at a full ring table or early in a SnG, let's look at what types of flops you can get with JTs.
If you flop a J or a T, you have top pair but your kicker sucks. You can easily get trapped with top pair and lose a fair sized pot to a better kicker.
If you flop a Str8 draw, there are probably face cards on the board, people will probably be betting them, and you probably won't be getting proper odds on your call if you chase the Str8.
If you flop a flush draw, you might be up against a better flush draw that has the Q, K, or A of the suit. Again, just like in the top pair example, you could get trapped holding the 2nd best hand.
I personnally don't care much for JTs. I'd take ATs over it any day, even though it's a 3-holer. At least with ATs I could hit top pair top kicker if a ten high board comes out on the flop, and I often see a draw to the nut flush (plus you have an overcard usually with the Ace). When 2 to your suit comes up, ATs makes a great semi-bluff hand (although weaker than AK/AQ/AJs). I think JTs is a trap hand, personnally.
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michael1123
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Rochester Hills, MI
Posts: 1,720
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Right, its obviously not a powerhouse of a hand. But, it sounds better than I thought, particularly on limit tables, since there you do get pot odds to chase.
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Toasty
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: England UK
Posts: 1,522
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I'd keep away from its unsuited counter part though, its a hidden loser in my eyes, you will pay to much, when you hit the flop a little to the times you hit it hard.
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Poker is all about the long long long long long long long term . . .
Barney's back . . . back again . . .
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