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strawman
Old 11-12-2005, 06:08 PM     Post subject: Odds on favorite? #1 (permalink)  
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I'm curious if there is a simple formula for determining whether or not you are ahead in a hand even though you might be behind after the flop. Is there a line of demarkation when ones outs makes them even money or a slight favorite to an established hand on the flop? By established I'm refering to non-nut hands under a straight.
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sandstorm
Old 11-12-2005, 06:18 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I don't really get the question, but if you belive you are behind on the flop, but have 14 outs, you have a 51% of hitting by the river. However, all of them are not certain to win for you, and your opponent might improve more that you do.
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Anon.E.Moose
Old 11-12-2005, 06:59 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I believe the rule of thumb is multiplying your outs by 4 with 2 cards coming, and by 2 with 1 card coming, gives you the percentage of making your hand and being ahead. However, you must be sure that they are clean outs, and will put you ahead, for this to be accurate.
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strawman
Old 11-12-2005, 07:05 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sandstorm
I don't really get the question, but if you belive you are behind on the flop, but have 14 outs, you have a 51% of hitting by the river. However, all of them are not certain to win for you, and your opponent might improve more that you do.
Gotta love my connection dying after a long post... You might have answered my question however vague it was. Assuming this situation: KcKs vs 8s7s

Flop:
2s 4s Qc
6c 10c 4d
6c 9d Ah
8d 9d Ah

8d 6s 9s

The first four I know the Kings are slightly ahead and the last one they would be slightly behind if all the money goes in on the flop. So I'm curious if a quick rule of thumb might be a hand with an inside straight and flush draw would be approximately even money going in on the flop. Not guaranteed to win I understand but about a coin flip.

Last example.
Kh 6s 9s

Is this approximatly an even money situation. 9 outs for the flush and 6 for the straight against 10 for quads or boat.

One slight edit. I think the above is a misstatement since the kings don't have to improve at this point whereas the draw does.
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Pyroxene
Old 11-13-2005, 01:44 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by strawman
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandstorm
I don't really get the question, but if you belive you are behind on the flop, but have 14 outs, you have a 51% of hitting by the river. However, all of them are not certain to win for you, and your opponent might improve more that you do.
Gotta love my connection dying after a long post... You might have answered my question however vague it was. Assuming this situation: KcKs vs 8s7s

Flop:
2s 4s Qc
6c 10c 4d
6c 9d Ah
8d 9d Ah

8d 6s 9s

The first four I know the Kings are slightly ahead and the last one they would be slightly behind if all the money goes in on the flop. So I'm curious if a quick rule of thumb might be a hand with an inside straight and flush draw would be approximately even money going in on the flop. Not guaranteed to win I understand but about a coin flip.

Last example.
Kh 6s 9s

Is this approximatly an even money situation. 9 outs for the flush and 6 for the straight against 10 for quads or boat.

One slight edit. I think the above is a misstatement since the kings don't have to improve at this point whereas the draw does.
For that hand:

Code:
Board: 2s 4s Qc 
Dead:  
        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	67.9798 %  	67.98% 	00.00%      { KcKs }
Hand  2:	32.0202 %  	32.02% 	00.00%      { 8s7s }

Board: 6c Tc 4d 
Dead:  
        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	67.5758 %  	67.58% 	00.00%      { KcKs }
Hand  2:	32.4242 %  	32.42% 	00.00%      { 8s7s }

Board: 6c 9d Ah 
Dead:  
        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	65.7576 %  	65.76% 	00.00%      { KcKs }
Hand  2:	34.2424 %  	34.24% 	00.00%      { 8s7s }

Board: 8d 9d Ah 
Dead:  
        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	76.7677 %  	76.77% 	00.00%      { KcKs }
Hand  2:	23.2323 %  	23.23% 	00.00%      { 8s7s }

Board: 6s 9s 8d 
Dead:  
        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	38.0808 %  	37.17% 	00.91%      { KcKs }
Hand  2:	61.9192 %  	61.01% 	00.91%      { 8s7s }
So, the first 3 hands the Kings are a 2:1 favorite post flop.

The fourth hand, the Kings are a 3:1 favorite post flop.

The fifth hand the Kings are a 1.64:1 underdog.

Go download PokerStove and run all the simulations you want.
Pyroxene
 
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mdwav
Old 11-14-2005, 05:30 AM #6 (permalink)  
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As sandstorm pointed out, if you have 14+ outs, you're better than 50% to make your hand. In other words, if you have either:
a) a pair and a flush draw (14 outs)
b) an OESD and a flush draw (15 outs)
then you will make your hand more than 50% of the time.
From your post, it seems like your intent is to find a strong enough draw to push all-in with. In all the scenarios you posted, you seem to be assuming villain has JUST 1 pair. Good players rarely call all-in with 1 pair. So consider:
1) even with a 15 out draw, you're about a 1.5:1 dog against a set
2) a very slight (think 51-52%) favourite OR a very slight dog against 2 pair. To illustrate:
case 1:
7s 8s vs 9h 6h
flop : 9s 6s 2h -> your monster draw is a very slight favourite

7s 8s vs 9h 2h
flop: 9s 6s 2d -> you're a slight dog because you've lost the 2s as an out

Conclusion: if you move in with your combo/monster draw, you want to be called by 1 pair. So ask yourself, will I get called by 1 pair?
" Don’t misunderstand. A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That’s just a fool.” - Reno
 
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strawman
Old 11-14-2005, 04:56 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mdwav
As sandstorm pointed out, if you have 14+ outs, you're better than 50% to make your hand. In other words, if you have either:
a) a pair and a flush draw (14 outs)
b) an OESD and a flush draw (15 outs)
then you will make your hand more than 50% of the time.
From your post, it seems like your intent is to find a strong enough draw to push all-in with. In all the scenarios you posted, you seem to be assuming villain has JUST 1 pair. Good players rarely call all-in with 1 pair. So consider:
1) even with a 15 out draw, you're about a 1.5:1 dog against a set
2) a very slight (think 51-52%) favourite OR a very slight dog against 2 pair. To illustrate:
case 1:
7s 8s vs 9h 6h
flop : 9s 6s 2h -> your monster draw is a very slight favourite

7s 8s vs 9h 2h
flop: 9s 6s 2d -> you're a slight dog because you've lost the 2s as an out

Conclusion: if you move in with your combo/monster draw, you want to be called by 1 pair. So ask yourself, will I get called by 1 pair?
I think my question was a little convoluted. However your examples have helped clarify my thoughts quite a bit and have giving me direction to investigate further.
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