Select Page
Poker Forum
Over 1,291,000 Posts!
Poker ForumBeginners Circle

Noob with a question about flops

Results 1 to 5 of 5
  1. #1

    Red face Noob with a question about flops

    Ok so I have been playing on Carbon poker for a little while now, and being a newb to online poker, I have a question about flop frequencies. I have around 20 or so flops from the early stage in a tournament, they were the first 20 hands of the tourn. I have posted the times so hopefully u guys wont think im making this up.


    Merge Game #74967547-6 (Tournament) | Holdem NL | 01/13/2014
    13:44:27 EST *** FLOP *** [7d As 9h]
    13:45:26 EST *** FLOP *** [Qc 5h 7h]
    13:51:23 EST *** FLOP *** [7s 7h Ah]
    13:52:56 EST *** FLOP *** [7h Ts As]
    14:00:27 EST *** FLOP *** [Jc 5h Qd]
    14:04:42 EST *** FLOP *** [2c 8d Kd]
    14:07:08 EST *** FLOP *** [Td 7h Ts]
    14:08:48 EST *** FLOP *** [Qc 2s Jd]
    14:12:54 EST *** FLOP *** [Qh 2d 9d]
    14:17:26 EST *** FLOP *** [8h 8s Js]
    14:19:06 EST *** FLOP *** [Jh 2d 6c]
    14:20:51 EST *** FLOP *** [8s 8h 9h]
    14:21:23 EST *** FLOP *** [Ad 8d 9s]
    14:23:45 EST *** FLOP *** [8s 2c 9h]
    14:25:01 EST *** FLOP *** [5c Kc 3s]
    14:29:12 EST *** FLOP *** [Kc 2c 5c]
    14:31:34 EST *** FLOP *** [4c Ah 3c]
    14:36:20 EST *** FLOP *** [Ac 6c 3d]
    14:39:24 EST *** FLOP *** [3h 5d 8c]
    14:40:39 EST *** FLOP *** [8h Js Ks]

    ok so my question is this, are most of the flops usually this wet? I mean only 3 didn't have an over card and almost all of them are connected by suits or gaps. I know Ive read it a hundred times, "these sites don't need to fix the cards they make enough money without it." this just looks funny to me, and I thought that I would get a group opinion.
    thanks for your thoughts in advance.
  2. #2
    20 is a very small sample size to start making accusations, or to be able to make any assumption and use this data as support for it.

    I would say generally, most flops are "wet". A flop will have an "over card" (which I assume you mean face card) a lot of the time. And when the flop doesn't have a face card on it, that means that all the cards are a 10 or lower, which will mean that there is a pretty good chance for straight possibilities out there. Throw in the possibility of 2 of the cards being the same suit as well and there are plenty of ways a flop can look wet/connected.
  3. #3
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Posts
    10,322
    Location
    St Louis, MO
    If you look for a pattern every time there's a gap in the patterns you already see, then you'll soon see patterns everywhere.

    There are only 22,100 ways to take 3 cards out of a deck of 52. (There's only 19,600 once you account for your specific cards in any given hand.)

    That's ultimately a tiny number compared to how many hands you play a day/week/etc.

    Understand that if there was not these runs of "improbable" things happening, then that would be a sign that it's not random. Randomness means that the good and the bad clump and blend in all ways.

    I mean... after a certain number of hands, you expect to see a royal... the lack of a royal becomes conspicuous after a while... after many more hands, you'd expect to see 2 royals in back to back hands. Which is highly improbable up to a point, then becomes highly probable.

    So you see... you and I might not experience that many hands in many lifetimes, but a huge online poker site does.

    All of this is to say: Randomness means that anything with a non-zero chance of happening... happens sometimes.
  4. #4
    Thanks for your explanations guys they do make sense. I know I have a lot more work/studying to do, and I believe that putting opponents on a range might be where I need the most work.
    thanks again.
  5. #5
    The probability of no J/Q/K/A on flop (assuming you don't have J/Q/K/A in your hand)

    1-(34/50*33/49*32/48)
    69.4%

    So yes it should be clear that it is VERY likely that a flop has either a J/Q/K or A (give you don't have one)

    From your sample of 20 hands, 16 of 20 have a J/Q/K or A on them. This is 80%, so yes over this VERY small sample, you have seen slightly more high card flops than would be expected. Expectation should be around 14 of 20.
    Last edited by griffey24; 01-14-2014 at 10:33 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •