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NL5 - Bottom Set Facing AI turn play.

  
 
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amifat
Old 01-14-2009, 12:22 PM     Post subject: NL5 - Bottom Set Facing AI turn play. #1 (permalink)  
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Villian is Typical .02/.05 cent passive, raising +TT, AK. Have him on Tracker as 48/5/0.93, I am TAGish, Raising most hands but typicaly playing ABC poker with a tricky PFR with 22 etc. Havent really being stealing much and only have shown down with AA.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($10.15)
CO ($7.21)
Hero (Button) ($9.51)
SB ($10.83)
BB ($12.27)
UTG ($8.49)

Preflop: Hero is Button with ,
2 folds, CO calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.20, 2 folds, CO calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.47) , , (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.47) (2 players)
CO bets $7.01 (All-In), Hero ??

This just confuses me, the only thing that beats us is, QQ, 88, TT all of which i think he would raise (Maybe not 88) and is a really small portion of his range.

What would you do?
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vclortho
Old 01-14-2009, 12:32 PM #2 (permalink)  

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Somehow I don't see him having the pocket pair here (based on the flop check) , so it could be that he had QT.

I think I'd call here, but the math might prove me to be disastrously wrong.
They called it poker because the word FU<K! was taken...
 
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amifat
Old 01-14-2009, 12:36 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vclortho
Somehow I don't see him having the pocket pair here (based on the flop check) , so it could be that he had QT.

I think I'd call here, but the math might prove me to be disastrously wrong.
And thats what I'm more worried about, I'm going to have a go at the maths but just not tonight because im semi tired after my session just wanted to get this out because it feels weird.
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Keith
Old 01-14-2009, 01:00 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 how about KJ AJ AK? and semi bluffing or J9 and the made straight. This later I would think most likely . Why didn't you raise the flop?.
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amifat
Old 01-14-2009, 01:11 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith_MM
how about KJ AJ AK? and semi bluffing or J9 and the made straight
I Doubt Villian is showing up with AK or AJos, Possibly AdJd, i can see villian doing this with KdJd, again hard with KJos. Making up a rough range.

Making up a rough range for his hands on the turn i can see villian doing this with: KdJd, TT, 88, QQ, QT, T2, T8, Adxd?

But even then, i think villian would raise QQ, TT and maybe even 88. 2pair imho seems to be where its at however its .02/.05 we are talking about here, more input please from others.
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kingnat
Old 01-14-2009, 02:04 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 Stop trying to tarp.

Villian's limp range involves 40 quadrillion hands.. and you have monsta nuts... and for the 5% you are behind you gotz 10 outs...

banana dance call
So you click their picture and then you get their money?
 
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Illfavor
Old 01-14-2009, 02:21 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kingnat
and for the 5% you are behind you gotz 10 outs...
huh?
I guess he means J9.
Ich grolle nicht...
 
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Keith
Old 01-14-2009, 02:31 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 3 queens,3tens , 3eights and a 2 for the 10 outs , but they aint't worth diddly if hes on the 88,TT, or QQ. I can't see him having QQ though and just calling initially though. Possibly with the 88 and TT.
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RML604
Old 01-14-2009, 02:31 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 Call.

There are only 4 hands that beat you right now, QQ, TT, 88, and 9J. I would discount QQ because he limped, so there are only 3 hands that you should be worried about, of which there are 22 combos total. Even if we add QQ back in, that's only 25 combos total. I would guess he has top pair or two pair. If he has a better set, make a note that he limped and then checked the flop. If he has a straight, kick yourself for not betting the flop.

Either way, you should be betting the flop here. You want to build a big pot when you have a big hand, and you don't want to give him a free card on the turn to let him catch up, especially since JT, J9, and T9 are all in his limping range.

I'm far from great at poker, so I'm interested to see what others have to say.
 
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JR9477
Old 01-14-2009, 02:40 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 Board: Qh 2d 8s Td
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.196% 54.20% 00.00% 3720 0.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 45.804% 45.80% 00.00% 3144 0.00 { QQ, TT, 88, QTs, Q8s, J9s, T8s, QTo, Q8o, J9o, T8o }


From what I think is reasonable for him to show up here with it looks like we have good equity, I'd call in this case.

(edit missed a hand)
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JR9477
Old 01-14-2009, 02:50 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith_MM
3 queens,3tens , 3eights and a 2 for the 10 outs , but they aint't worth diddly if hes on the 88,TT, or QQ. I can't see him having QQ though and just calling initially though. Possibly with the 88 and TT.
Indeed, we're pretty doomed against these hands. But they are only 9 hand combinations. [QQ(3), TT(3), 88(3)]

But also J9 makes up 16 hand combinations just by itself, and we CAN improve to beat J9.
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FriskyPirate
Old 01-14-2009, 04:55 PM #12 (permalink)  
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I would bet the flop and call if he shoves. If it is set over set...just a cooler. You are ahead most of the time.
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dranger7070
Old 01-14-2009, 05:23 PM #13 (permalink)  
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OMFG PLEASE TELL ME YOU DID NOT JUST ASK WHETHER OR NOT YOU SHOULD CALL THIS HAND!!! ok in all honesty, its 5nl. These guys wouldn't know a good hand if it hit him in the face. This could so easily be a bluff/shove or a marginal hand (ie TPGK, 2 pair, etc.)

Obviously he can show up with QQ 88 J9 and all that other junk you were moaning about, but if he has that kind of hand WHY IN THE HELL WOULD HE CHECK FLOP, SHOVE TURN!?!?!!? Sure its 5nl, but come on, give these guys SOME brain cells for coming up with a better line for value than that.

Fist pump snap call imo. Hope u made right choice.
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Monty3038
Old 01-14-2009, 11:40 PM     Post subject: Re: NL5 - Bottom Set Facing AI turn play. #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by amifat
Villian is Typical .02/.05 cent passive, raising +TT, AK. Have him on Tracker as 48/5/0.93, I am TAGish, Raising most hands but typicaly playing ABC poker with a tricky PFR with 22 etc. Havent really being stealing much and only have shown down with AA.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($10.15)
CO ($7.21)
Hero (Button) ($9.51)
SB ($10.83)
BB ($12.27)
UTG ($8.49)

Preflop: Hero is Button with ,
2 folds, CO calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.20, 2 folds, CO calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.47) , , (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.47) (2 players)
CO bets $7.01 (All-In), Hero ??

This just confuses me, the only thing that beats us is, QQ, 88, TT all of which i think he would raise (Maybe not 88) and is a really small portion of his range.

What would you do?
Look at your stats on him... He calls 48% of hands but raises 5% of hands. He didn't raise PF, he limped, then he called your 4x raise... his range is wide. Very wide I would say. You kill the flop, he maybe hits top pair, might have two diamonds in his hand, he could have a lot... What would you have done had he shoved the flop?

Then the question that always gets me in a tough spot, what was your plan for the 'whole hand'? You've got a set, you are way ahead most of the time here, you should be planning a way to get him all in... then he obliges you... set over set is possible but I think he is on the Diamond flush draw...

I couldn't have gotten away from this hand, and probably would have bet the flop, maybe that scares him off, but with his hand record so far, I doubt it.
 
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kb coolman
Old 01-14-2009, 11:50 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kingnat
Stop trying to tarp.

Villian's limp range involves 40 quadrillion hands.. and you have monsta nuts... and for the 5% you are behind you gotz 10 outs...

banana dance call
QFT and major LOL.
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AFchung
Old 01-15-2009, 07:04 PM #16 (permalink)  
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bet flop

snap fist pump call
http://afchung.blogspot.com/
 
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bigspenda73
Old 01-15-2009, 07:11 PM #17 (permalink)  
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 this is an example of why knowing hand combination is important:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

792 games 0.005 secs 158,400 games/sec

Board: Qh 2d 8s Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.591% 46.59% 00.00% 369 0.00 { 2h2s }
Hand 1: 53.409% 53.41% 00.00% 423 0.00 { QQ, TT, 88, 22, QTs, QTo }

add in a combo of KJ every now and then and poorly played AA/KK and it looks like a snap call
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Old 01-16-2009, 09:17 AM #18 (permalink)  
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villain can't have 22
DUCY? of course pokerstove already fixed that for ya

but you forgot Q8 he's 48/5 that's definitely in his range especially if suited
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bigspenda73
Old 01-16-2009, 09:34 AM #19 (permalink)  
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 doesn't matter, my point was even with the tightest range imaginable it's still a call.
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RoyalProdigy
Old 01-20-2009, 03:44 AM #20 (permalink)  
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Whats up with no bet on the flop? I don't like that play but hey i don't know if maybe you were trying to set a trap or what???? I'm calling here because hes afraid of the flush with that said there is J9 QQ 1010 88 that can beat me. If he holds one of those combinations so be it but theres no way i'm laying down my set.
Stack That Arab Money!!!
 
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