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NL25 sb vs bb limped pot vs shove?

  
 
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inƒamous
Old 05-10-2009, 05:34 AM     Post subject: NL25 sb vs bb limped pot vs shove? #1 (permalink)  
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Errg no reads on villian 23/3/5.0, %100 raise flop Cbet over 35 hands. Do you stack off here? Villians donk bet means to me draw of some kind. Once he reraises me does this narrow his hand range to specifically a set? Im loosing to sets and 89 but ahead of some kind of pair draw and draws.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($24.75)
Hero (BB) ($31.20)
UTG ($3.95)
MP1 ($22.30)
MP2 ($6.75)
CO ($57.25)
Button ($5.20)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 4
1 fold, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, 2 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks

Flop: ($1) 9, 8, 4 (4 players)
SB bets $0.25, Hero raises $1.50, 2 folds, SB raises $4.75, Hero calls $3.50

Turn: ($11) 2 (2 players)
SB bets $19.50 (All-In), Hero calls $19.50

River: ($50) K (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $50
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Old 05-10-2009, 05:42 AM #2 (permalink)  
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And people ask what SPR is for.
also: wtf 3 shortstacks at your table
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LawDude
Old 05-10-2009, 07:37 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
And people ask what SPR is for.
also: wtf 3 shortstacks at your table
Hero is getting just 1 1/2 to 1 on his money calling the turn shove. That means you better be ahead of 40 percent of Villain's range. I don't think that's very likely here, but maybe others will disagree.
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Old 05-10-2009, 07:46 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
And people ask what SPR is for.
also: wtf 3 shortstacks at your table
Hero is getting just 1 1/2 to 1 on his money calling the turn shove. That means you better be ahead of 40 percent of Villain's range. I don't think that's very likely here, but maybe others will disagree.
SPR on the flop = 25
stack off range should be like... super tight
probably just felt sets because even 98 is marginal/situational/for stacking fish with 94

also, can't donk bet in limped pots
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Fnord
Old 05-10-2009, 09:00 AM #5 (permalink)  
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What are you putting him on when he shoves the turn?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Parasurama
Old 05-10-2009, 09:59 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
That means you better be ahead of 40 percent of Villain's range.
It's not that you have to be ahead of 40% of villain's range, it's that you have to have 40% equity against villain's range.

Note that villain can't have a pair and a fd because you have the 4

If he folds 94 and 84 pre or doesn't stack off with them on this board this is a fold. If he does then I think it's a call.
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inƒamous
Old 05-10-2009, 11:02 AM #7 (permalink)  
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inƒamous
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
What are you putting him on when he shoves the turn?
I figured this was a bad call was probably tilting a little .

But on another note. Range is something I am trying to learn. But Considering this is at nl25 i guess his range could be any other two pair, three sets, and any kind of straight and or flush draw. Including top pair guttshots. And just for discussion excluding A9h. Although Im beating flush draw, straight draw and 84 and loosing to 99,88,44, and 89. So if every flush draw and every straight draw counts as 1. Then hands im beating vs hands im loosing to could be ratio'd 3/4 meaning for this to be correct call from a range standpoint with no reads on a player i would need to be getting 1.25-1 on my money on the turn. Barring common sense and or better reads on a player? Sorry for weird question
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Azazel
Old 05-10-2009, 01:58 PM #8 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by inƒamous
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
What are you putting him on when he shoves the turn?
I figured this was a bad call was probably tilting a little .

But on another note. Range is something I am trying to learn. But Considering this is at nl25 i guess his range could be any other two pair, three sets, and any kind of straight and or flush draw. Including top pair guttshots. And just for discussion excluding A9h. Although Im beating flush draw, straight draw and 84 and loosing to 99,88,44, and 89. So if every flush draw and every straight draw counts as 1. Then hands im beating vs hands im loosing to could be ratio'd 3/4 meaning for this to be correct call from a range standpoint with no reads on a player i would need to be getting 1.25-1 on my money on the turn. Barring common sense and or better reads on a player? Sorry for weird question
Run it through pokerstove.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,860 games 0.005 secs 572,000 games/sec

Board: 9s 8s 4h 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.308% 64.23% 03.08% 1837 88.00 { 9c4s }
Hand 1: 32.692% 29.62% 03.08% 847 88.00 { 99-88, 44, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, A7s, As6s, As5s, As3s, As2s, JTs, 98s, 94s, 84s, 76s, JTo, 98o, 94o, 84o, 76o }

The more flush draws and gutshots you add in the better you get, but I don't think he's pushing without a set, twopair, or some combo draw, TT, nutflush draw, JT maybe.
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Pelion
Old 05-10-2009, 02:18 PM #9 (permalink)  
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I dont see an unknown tightish player going this apeshit in an unraised pot with just a flush draw OR a straight draw.

Combodraws perhaps. But since the 4 is in your hand that just leaves TJ, 67 and maybe the gutshots.
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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Fnord
Old 05-10-2009, 02:43 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Assuming a fairly loosing passivish opponent relative to the game (online full ring) and not some weird opponent that runs really weird lines....

Flop: The min-bet re-raise is a gotcha! line. Consider folding right there. You can discount drawing hands because they would tend to try to get money in really fast on the flop. Even if he's drawing, folding here isn't a total disaster, but calling down with 2 outs is a disaster.

Turn: The over-bet is probably a big hand that doesn't want to play a bad river card and get sucked out on. He figures either you will call down second best or make a huge drawing error or you'll fold and he'll take the pot. He's trading value to avoid the emotional distress of losing the pot. Only wreckless, manical opponents regularly run this as a bluff line.

So what is a "big hand" here? Since he completed the small blind we can nearly rule out AA-QQ and heavily discount TT/JJ. I'm thinking two pairs and sets. Is he calling any 2 in this spot?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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inƒamous
Old 05-10-2009, 06:26 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Assuming from just a range standpoint then other than this was just a tilting plain bad call if I put what the full spectrum of cards I thought without a read that a player could do this with at nl25. I thought of the following hands

9d9h, 8c8d, 8c8h, 8d8h, QhJh, QsJs, JTs, 9c8c, 9d8d, 9h8h, 9d4d, 76s, JTo, 9c8d, 9d8h, 9h8c, 9h8d, 9d4c, 9d4h, 9h4c, 9h4d, 8d4c, 8h4c, 8h4d, 76o }

When I put these hands in it showed me as a %57 fav but I would think over the long run his range would be a lot norrower. Now thinking of range vs price vs equity is this what I should be thinking? Summing up range vs equity?

Sorry this seems to be more of my question than this butchered hand
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Old 05-10-2009, 08:02 PM #12 (permalink)  
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this is why ranges are hard to teach while SPR is easy
you're risking your entire stack for $1
you better have close to the nuts
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Fnord
Old 05-10-2009, 09:26 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
you're risking your entire stack for $1
you better have close to the nuts
This isn't true. We just need to be ahead of his range or have a lot of equity (preferably hidden outs) to play a nothing pot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Old 05-10-2009, 09:37 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
you're risking your entire stack for $1
you better have close to the nuts
This isn't true. We just need to be ahead of his range or have a lot of equity (preferably hidden outs) to play a nothing pot.
Well, that's what I mean being "close to the nuts"
to be ahead of his range we need to have "close to the nuts" because he's not stacking off with 9x here
we're good if we can put TT+ in his range, but his PFR is not 0, there's a good chance he'll raise all of those hands preflop

even if he limps AA here for lol slowplays we're behind the range 84s, AA and sets

Board: 9s 8s 4h

Hand 0: 40.335% { 9c4s }
Hand 1: 59.665% { AA, 99-88, 44, 98s, 84s, 98o }

we're break-even with 98 against the same range so that's why I say it's situational, if we take out 84s and AA out of the range we're behind
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