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CrackedMonkey
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06-22-2006, 09:02 AM
Post subject: NL Tournaments and the all in Call
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 8
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I've noticed that in several online tournaments I've played where I end up going all in pre-flop with the best of it I am getting outdrawn a minority of the time with consistancy.
To specify I've gotten into 5 heads up pre-flop all in situations. Some I've instigated some I've called. In all five occasions I've been a favorite with at worst 60/40 fav. up to 75/25 fav. I've lost on draw outs about 1.5 times for every five hands played in that scenario in the same session.
This has happened to me with regularity in 4 other almost identical separate tournament situations.
Question:
In a tourney situation when you win say three of these 75/25 fav. situations in a row should a guy be looking for the draw out on the fourth one? This has been troubling me as all of these situations are where I am in a double up or get crippled situation in the tournament. Specifically, if I have a good read on a guy and put him on an inferior hand say 75/25 fav. and he goes all in and it's up to me should I call that fourth time? Or does it make sense to throw the best hand away preflop and wait for a better play?
Hope I'm being clear here.
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flotu
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Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 304
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You should never ever throw away a hand preflop if you think you're a 3 to 1 favorite. You have just experienced some bad variance.
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Nova442
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 43
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It's not bad variance at all, you're only 23.7% to win 5 75/25 in a row and only 7.7% to win 5 60/40s. You lost 1.5/5 (30%) of these situations when you were, on average about a 70% favorite? Holy crap the variance! Is it possible for anyone playing poker to believe that they should win every hand if they get it in with the best of it? You're SUPPOSED to be "outdrawn a minority of the time" consistently. Otherwise you're just on a lucky run.
Accept the fact that you have to try to put your money in as the favorite AND get lucky to win in tournaments 
Q1: Do you understand the idea of independent trials? The first 3 don't matter at all when it comes to hand 4, your opponent isn't "owed" a bad beat. It's still exactly the same percentage, 75/25.
Q2: Yes you should call the 4th time. That's a monster edge.
Q3: No it doesn't make sense to wait for a bigger edge than 75-25, you're not going to get it. You can make an argument for folding when you're on the bubble and can fold into money but otherwise ALL-IN!
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"Cry Havoc and let slip the dogs of War."
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flotu
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Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 304
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Wow, I guess I must have missed the "minority" part, I read it as the majority.
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CrackedMonkey
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 8
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nova442
It's not bad variance at all, you're only 23.7% to win 5 75/25 in a row and only 7.7% to win 5 60/40s. You lost 1.5/5 (30%) of these situations when you were, on average about a 70% favorite? Holy crap the variance! Is it possible for anyone playing poker to believe that they should win every hand if they get it in with the best of it? You're SUPPOSED to be "outdrawn a minority of the time" consistently. Otherwise you're just on a lucky run.
Accept the fact that you have to try to put your money in as the favorite AND get lucky to win in tournaments
Q1: Do you understand the idea of independent trials? The first 3 don't matter at all when it comes to hand 4, your opponent isn't "owed" a bad beat. It's still exactly the same percentage, 75/25.
Yes, I do. How would the Pros handle a situation where they're getting good cards and they're in the early stages of a tourney where a lot of maniacs are moving all in? I mean the goal is to get to the money and maybe win the title. If a guy decided to go passive and not play anything less than QQ after gunning down a few maniacs previously, would that be a good strategy considering a chip count in the top 75% of the tournament?
Q2: Yes you should call the 4th time. That's a monster edge.
Statistical no brainer but as stated above is it a tactical error in SOME cases?
Q3: No it doesn't make sense to wait for a bigger edge than 75-25, you're not going to get it. You can make an argument for folding when you're on the bubble and can fold into money but otherwise ALL-IN! |
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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cracked, do you own anything that has any significant monetary value (house, car, etc)?
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Chicago_Kid
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: People let me tell you about my best friends...
Posts: 1,132
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The vast majority of the time I get knocked out or crippled in MTT's is when I'm AI ahead 60/40 or better. They still drive me crazy.
You just have to accept them, and get better at accumulating chips w/o showdowns to absorb the bad beats.
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