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NL 10 blind steal: turn offers opportunity to bluff raise

  
 
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Old 09-22-2008, 07:26 PM     Post subject: NL 10 blind steal: turn offers opportunity to bluff raise #1 (permalink)  
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Opponent is your average nit running 19/4/1.6
I was taking my time because of 8 tabling to bet the flop and he called pretty fast, so I thought that his donk is weak since it's small and it's after I seemed unsure of whether to bet the flop or not

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($10)
MP1 ($1.50)
CO ($13.45)
Hero (Button) ($12.10)
SB ($2)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, Q
MP1 calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.55, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.45, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.35) A, 7, 8 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.90, UTG+1 calls $0.90

Turn: ($3.15) 8 (4 players)
UTG+1 bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4.20,
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spoonitnow
Old 09-22-2008, 07:58 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 The difference between his VP$IP and PFR tell us that he's limp/calling a lot more than pocket pairs. His range will usually consist of any ace, suited connectors, or a pocket pair, and maybe some weak broadways.

On the flop, his check/call would indicate to me that he caught a piece of some sort. Here a piece could be as little as an OESD or a weak pair with something like 76s that caught, or it could be something as big as top pair or even a set. The weaker side of his range is more likely from a hand combination/probability standpoint on the flop, and also because he has taken a bit of a passive line.

By the turn it would seem that most of that likely range is not folding to a raise on the turn. Any 8 made trips, any draw is still hanging around, and any ace won't let it go. I would make a note about how the hand played out and let this one go, looking for a similar play in the future to pick off.
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Old 09-22-2008, 08:43 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Converter mucked it up, but since you didn't see his limp you should have assumed he was in the BB.
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Robb
Old 09-22-2008, 09:03 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Robb is an unknown quantity at this point
 I like the open-raise/cbet. With an AF ~ 1.6, he's not bluffing much. The turn's an easy fold for me.

The "timing tell" is important, but I would need to have seen it at least a couple times from this villain before I'm willing to gamble 45bb based on it. I've "guessed" at what a timing tell means (and stacked off) enough to be wary of it.

You don't seem to be planning out the hand very well. When you raise the turn, what's your plan for him shoving over the top? What if he calls, then bets out on the river? If you're line is bet/fold then check behind/fold, you need him to fold 37% of the time to your $2.70 turn raise to show a profit. I don't see this amount of fold equity here, and I don't have any idea what I'd do if I bet here and he refused to fold. Bluff the river all-in?
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Old 09-22-2008, 09:15 PM #5 (permalink)  
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In retrospect, I should have raised to $3 on the turn so I had a pot sized bet left for a river bluff if I decide to make one, and I'd need him to fold a smaller percentage of the time for my bluff to be successful.

Let's see what happens on the river!

Turn: ($3.15) 8 (4 players)
UTG+1 bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4.20, UTG+1 tanks and finally calls $2.70

River: ($11.55) 4 (5 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $6.45 (All-In),
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