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dranger7070
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04-02-2009, 08:24 PM
Post subject: Nit donkbets T high flop. Overbet shoves river
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Wake up in the mornin feelin' like P. Diddy
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Running 10/5 over 30 hands. I was thinking he has a set here like all the time, but I honestly didn't think he would be so aggro with a FH if he had it. The T on the turn either totally screws me or makes my hand.
Do you fold to this river overbet?
http://weaktight.com/951616
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Vinland
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2008
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ouch that would piss me off.
Toss up. Basically he wouldve had to call you with 33, 66 or 9T to beat you. He could have an over pair and think you suck...
He's only put $ in 10% of hands (small sample) but perhaps he wouldn't stay in with something like T9 but 33,66 are possible.
I dont know, tough call but I probably do it. But maybe not.....
Hope I was a lot of help!
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I confess in quicksand
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dranger7070
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2008
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Hahaha TONS!
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AFchung
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
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i'd probably fold and feel sick about it, just because the size of his bet in relation to the pot is pretty big and his stats are nitty as hell
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tpb221
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 69
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I'm calling and crossing my fingers. His sample size is way to small to really have a bearing on this. This could easily be a overpair or weaker 10.
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Illfavor
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2008
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30 hands people...seriously, why do you even bother posting stats with so few numbers? 30 hands means essentially nothing, and you cannot seriously label him a "nit" imo.
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Ich grolle nicht...
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dranger7070
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Wake up in the mornin feelin' like P. Diddy
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Illfavor
30 hands people...seriously, why do you even bother posting stats with so few numbers? 30 hands means essentially nothing, and you cannot seriously label him a "nit" imo.
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Um, would you have rather me just said. Dude overshoves river? Sure, 30 hands doesn't mean very much, but it is all I had to work with. 10/5 isn't exactly LAG either imo.
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Illfavor
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Denton, TX
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dranger7070
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Illfavor
30 hands people...seriously, why do you even bother posting stats with so few numbers? 30 hands means essentially nothing, and you cannot seriously label him a "nit" imo.
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Um, would you have rather me just said. Dude overshoves river? Sure, 30 hands doesn't mean very much, but it is all I had to work with. 10/5 isn't exactly LAG either imo. |
Lol, the point is that 30 hands don't often mean anything. Take a random 30 hands from any session you've ever had and you'll have 5/2 stats and 10/5 and 30/20 and all sorts of things like that. I don't put much or any merit in such a small sample size. I know sometimes it's all we have to work with, but it might just be better to assume he's an unknown than assume he's a nit after 30 hands unless you actually have table reads (which you didn't post so I assumed you didn't.)
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Ich grolle nicht...
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dranger7070
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4-of-a-Kind
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Yea no real reads, and when you put it that way it makes more sense lol. :/
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lockpull
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2009
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Illfavor
30 hands people...seriously, why do you even bother posting stats with so few numbers? 30 hands means essentially nothing, and you cannot seriously label him a "nit" imo.
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What is a good amount of hands to start trusting the stats?
This more looks like villian is putting you on high cards/ pp and trying to scare you with the big bet. Even if he did have some kind of hand that made a little sense with this betting pattern:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.688% 59.74% 01.95% 46 1.50 { AcTs }
Hand 1: 38.312% 36.36% 01.95% 28 1.50 { JJ-66, 33, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, 87s, 54s, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo, T9o, 87o, 54o }
My question is (since I am still working on EV calculations, which Illfavor knows) these numbers seem to make this a -EV call.
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Decision making - When decisions are not based on information, it's called gambling
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
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Just throwing this out there, probably a shitty idea...
But does anyone raise the flop like 2.5-3x or something?
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here!
"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"
http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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Carroters
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4-of-a-Kind
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I think this flop is somewhat wa/wb here and if we don't want to stack off (which we obv shouldn't on this flop vs a possible nit/unknown) I think raising is bad. We fold out a lot of his lower pps that don't have many outs and also other hands we beat. This is either a set, a worse 10, a worse pair or some random donky overcards/air. By raising we fold out the majority of these hands which we may get value from on a later street and get killed by sets.
River could be a call imo. All boats are defo in his range but I think a load of worse 10s are also, and it's possible he's spazzing with sd value because he's terrible, although we have no evidence for this.
I think there are defo more 10s in his range here due to him donking the flop an leading the turn. This is a wierd set line for these stakes and I think trips is far more likely.
Board: Td 3c 6s Th 9d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.000% 48.00% 06.00% 12 1.50 { AcTs }
Hand 1: 46.000% 40.00% 06.00% 10 1.50 { 99, 66, 33, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }
He may not be this lose preflop here, so we can maybe take out some of the combinations. If the sample size was bigge it'd be more of a fold imo. This just doesn't feel like he has a set here and he probably fears nothing with trips since to him your hand is defo under-repped. I guess it's a matter of how many pre-flop combos containing 10s are in his range. My range there for him's probably a bit wide, but then there's a possibility he spazzs with other stuff we can beat aswell. I'd call without a larger sample to indicate he's a nit.
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Illfavor
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Denton, TX
Posts: 1,152
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
Just throwing this out there, probably a shitty idea...
But does anyone raise the flop like 2.5-3x or something?
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He's taken the initiative and we have a good hand, but it's not a monster and aren't necessarily looking to stack off on the flop or anything. Now, we can raise the turn imo if we think QQ/JJ/any ten is calling. We completely dominate that range and such.
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Ich grolle nicht...
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Fnord
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Moderator
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CALL
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
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flip a coin
heads-call
tails-fold
then make sure it lands on heads
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
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does he 3-barrell with anything worse than a ten? if so isn't he just turning his hand into a bluff?
by raising flop I was gonna ch/bk turn if called. are we really getting more than a street of value from a garbage hand vs a player who has so far been tight?
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here!
"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"
http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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Carroters
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Da Amberlamps
Posts: 2,216
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
does he 3-barrell with anything worse than a ten? if so isn't he just turning his hand into a bluff?
by raising flop I was gonna ch/bk turn if called. are we really getting more than a street of value from a garbage hand vs a player who has so far been tight?
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He may think an overpair is good here due to our passive line so it's concievable he bets 3 streets for value and doesn't put us on a 10.
Yeah we can easily get more than one street even if he is a nit which he may not be post-flop. If he has a worse 10 or even something like 88, I think 2-3 streets is possible, we have position and can town these worse marginal hands all day.
PPl are stations and an unknown at 10NL should be assumed to be at least a little bit of a station until proven otherwise imo.
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
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I guess getting donk bet into just tilts me - ya'll know what to do in the heads up event now I suppose (if you can make it to postlfop against my spazzy 3 and 4-bets :/)
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here!
"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"
http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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BooG690
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Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 1,439
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This is very common down in microstakes...I honestly think he's simply overvaluing his hand: a dominated ten and did a poor job of building a pot that he wanted to go all-in on (and for some odd reason feels shoving on the river is the right way to do it). He MAY have T9...but that's a chance I would take. I'd call this and be sick to my stomach when I see T9 flipped...or when I see the pure garbage he spewed on the table.
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That's how winners play; we convince the other guy he's making all the right moves.
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Carroters
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Da Amberlamps
Posts: 2,216
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Luckily for you Micro, getting 4 bet all the time tilts the shit out of me - hence that horrible spew shove with A7o in game 1, If you can remember that far back.
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ColdDecked
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 217
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I don't think I can fold this. Call and put a note down on what he overbets here with.
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dranger7070
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Wake up in the mornin feelin' like P. Diddy
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Thanks guys. I was pretty sure this was a call on the table, just for the simple fact that I don't see someone playing a FH this aggressively (especially on the river) and thought he could be blowing a nut with KT, QT, etc.
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idk I fold because he's a nit and he has a boat
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