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NEW STRATEGY COSTING ME MONEY (BIGTIME) HELP...
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BILLABONG
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01-29-2005, 02:50 PM
Post subject: NEW STRATEGY COSTING ME MONEY (BIGTIME) HELP...
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#1 (permalink)
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 102
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For about the past 2 months I have been doin well consistently making money every week. At .10-.25 I made an average of $100.00 a week. And a average of a $125.00 bankroll decline every week. What I mean by that is every week it was casual to drop about $125.00 (a combination of bad beats,bad cards,and outdraws) but then I would always make the $125.00 back and then make an average of $100.00 ending the week as I said up above. Now one week ago I moved up to .25-.50 limits. Now for .25-.50 I was averaging basically double of the .10-.25 limits. For example I had a fluctual decline of about $250.00 and profited $200.00. Now with all this being said, I was making this on a strategy of betting half the pot no matter what when I bet as long as only one opponent was calling, even if a draw such as a straight or flush was showing (because this didnt give my opponent correct pot odds to call,and not only that I would have alot more players chasing when I only bet half) And it worked, I was making money, consitently,every week. However, I guess I got greedy and figured I could make close to DOUBLE the money a week agaisnt the players who were chasing against me by betting (matching) the pot whenever a draw was showing. Well, I havent made any money this week at all, and my bankroll has declined $520.00. And with only 1 day left in my week schedule for this week (Sun 12:00am-Sat 11:59pm) I doubt very seriously im not only goin to make not only the $520.00 back. But making an extra $200.00-$400.00..............What do I do?????????? I keep thinkin the money I have lost is just from people outdrawing me, and in theory it probably should double from usual considering im betting double now.But if thats true, then that means I should make atleast $400.00 this week. And im telling ya now, I dont think thats goin to happen. So I could go back to my old strategy. But I keep thinkin I should be getting ready to break through with a burst in making money any minute now, so why go all this way matching the pot only to go back to betting half as soon as the draws stop hitting....................
WHAT DO I DO>?
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twosevoff
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Flush
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 526
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Seems like you must be either pot-committing yourself with second best hands, paying off draws when you shouldn't, or just having a really lousy run of cards.
Theoretically, your pot size bets should be more effective than 1/2 pot size bets in the long run. As long as your bet is more than 1/2 the pot your are giving virtually any draw insufficient pot odds to chase, and the more you bet the more you cut off their odds. Also, if you are always betting the pot size, you're never going to be tipping off the strength of your hand by your bet size.
I find that varying your bet size is best though. Switch it up: for one rotation bet 2/3 of the pot on the flop every hand you're in, the next rotation bet 1/2 the pot, the next bet full pot size, and the next 3/4 pot size. If you do this, predetermining how much you're going to bet before you've even been dealt cards, it will be tough for other players to get a line on your play by your betting pattern. I don't do this myself, but I try to make my betting either consistent or random in relation to the pot, and always at least half the pot.
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BILLABONG
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 102
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Im definately not paying off draws. Everytime someone chases my pot size bet(s)and hits,and if im in ealry position I will bet half the pot because I dont like checking as soon as the draw appears because that looks weak and believe more players are tempted to bluff...However, after the draw is comes ( and I bet half the pot) even if they raise minumum which is usually what they seem to do. I fold up quicky not tryin to pay them off (implied odds). So either there pulling off a ballsy bluff raising only minumum after I already bet into them (signaling since I bet half the pot into them even after the draw completes, that I would probably call a minumum raise since im receiving usually ATLEAST 4:1 on my money) So, I dont think im paying off the draws in any way. The only thing I can think of is they have a better hand them me from the get go (flop) like two pair or a set, but I dont think thats the case either because the odds of flopping a set is 7:1 and flopping two pair is 49:1, So unless there out n out bluffing with a minumum raise after the draw hits. I dont understand why im losing so much more money using this strategy....Please help me out with some more feedback
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BILLABONG
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 102
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When im throwing out pot size bets with top pair and then well say on the river the third suited card comes along and I bet half the pot say 15 into 30 in early position and my opponent raises me minumum to 30 making it cost me $15 into a 75 dollar pot, do you think thats wrong tol fold that? Considering im getting paid 5:1? But it just doesnt make sense to raise minumum without the flush right?
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Mony B
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 192
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this is a tricky one but call just to see what your opponent has, its ok to loose 15$ for information, the more you see your opponents cards the better you will start to see their betting and playing style and be able to make better calls, bets, raises ect against them. Another thing, since you are always making pot size bets, maybe your opponents put you more on a bluff, on the net it seems like when you bet big 1 of two things your opponents will think about, happen. 1. they think it is a bluff and since you do it so often they will call you a lot more and play more aggressively when you bet. or 2. they will think you are showing strenght and will fold. Try finding a mix between the two betting styles you have displayed on your previous post, you dont want to fall into any type of pattern anyone can pick up on. If you bet like you have a big hand people will only call if they have a draw or another hand that can beat how strong they think your hand is. Sorry that was a little confusing, try to think of it as the "gap concept" only with money. The more money you bet the more your opponent has to have a hand to call you with and vice versa.
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Hubris1
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 163
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First off, measuring your success in finite units is a bad idea, particularly when you're doing "OMG i have to make 200 dollars in a day or I'm effed!" that's a very bad idea, and its an even worse idea to measure it down to the day like it sounds like you're doing. Poker will have swings, forcing performance out of yourself is a very bad idea. Look and see if you're profitable that week, if you are, great, if not, or its only a minimal amount, look for leaks. If its bad beats and bad calls from your opponent, damn, they'll pay you off next week.
As for betting 100% of the pot consistently, yes, that's a pretty bad idea. In your stakes you're going to have an awful lot of calling stations, that are looking to see the flop no matter what the hand. You're probably accomplishing what you want against draws and pushing them out completely, but you're getting yourself pot committed against made hands like two pair or a set.
What I would recommend doing is raising more preflop and then betting 50% of that post flop, if you get called you can have alarm bells go off in your head and it'll be easier to put the hand down. If you're doing 3x then do 5x, if you're doing 5x try 7x or 8x. You're much more likely to push out 7 9 suited betting like that preflop whereas post flop you might not have a chance in hell of pushing him out. You might want to pull that in depending on your table, some tables can support betting like that, others may simply wanna see the flop cheap and play their ghetto game from there.
No matter how you cut it, anyone that calls a pot size bet either has you beat or is so brain dead they probably are incapable of operating on the internet.
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Hubris1
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02-01-2005, 08:22 AM
Post subject: Re: well
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#7 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 163
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Mony B
this is a tricky one but call just to see what your opponent has, its ok to loose 15$ for information, the more you see your opponents cards the better you will start to see their betting and playing style and be able to make better calls, bets, raises ect against them. Another thing, since you are always making pot size bets, maybe your opponents put you more on a bluff, on the net it seems like when you bet big 1 of two things your opponents will think about, happen. 1. they think it is a bluff and since you do it so often they will call you a lot more and play more aggressively when you bet. or 2. they will think you are showing strenght and will fold. Try finding a mix between the two betting styles you have displayed on your previous post, you dont want to fall into any type of pattern anyone can pick up on. If you bet like you have a big hand people will only call if they have a draw or another hand that can beat how strong they think your hand is. Sorry that was a little confusing, try to think of it as the "gap concept" only with money. The more money you bet the more your opponent has to have a hand to call you with and vice versa.
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I totally disagree with the first part, most players you will never see again online and players are far less committed to a table than they are at a B&M place. Most players will walk away from the table after doubling their table buy in. For the plaeyrs you will see again, buy poker tracker, its 50 bucks, hundreds of times cheaper than what this strategy will cost you in the long run.
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