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Never Bet On The River - Eh?

  
 
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Thunder
Old 11-10-2007, 12:56 AM     Post subject: Never Bet On The River - Eh? #1 (permalink)  
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I never understood why people say" never bet on the river if the only hand that will call you, can beat you".

I mean, if 2 of you have got that far, and you're certain your hand is better then why not bet out?

Sure, you can walk into a more expensve beating every once in a while than if you'd just checked but it's very likely the villain would bet at you anyway.

It's also common to read "don't bet on the river unless the only way you can win is by a bluff". But this goes back to the above points. If it's ok for a bluff to be bet then why not a solid hand? And if you shouldn't bet 'cause you can walk into a beating then likewise with bluffing on the river?

Maybe it means only bet if you cannot be beaten at all but short of landing quads, most hands are beatable. Eg: only today I walked my flopped nut flush into a completely unreadable full house on the river.
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spoonitnow
Old 11-10-2007, 01:19 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 The idea is that you shouldn't bet on the river if more hands that call beat you than lose to you. The point is that it becomes a -EV play.

Example: You're on the river and you plan to bet $25. If you only beat 40% of the hands that call your bet, then 40% of the time you win an extra $25, and 60% of the time you lose an extra $25, making the bet obviously -EV.
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Jack Sawyer
Old 11-10-2007, 01:45 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 Example #2: you got trips with top kicker on a 4-to-the-flush board.

If you bet, who do you expect will call you?
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Old 11-10-2007, 04:01 AM     Post subject: Re: Never Bet On The River - Eh? #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thunder

Maybe it means only bet if you cannot be beaten at all but short of landing quads, most hands are beatable. Eg: only today I walked my flopped nut flush into a completely unreadable full house on the river.

You knew there was a full house on the board. You should still bet this because smaller flushes will certainly call a decent v-bet.

You don't have to have the absolute nuts to v-bet the river as long as there are worse hands that will call you. If you have a set and there is a possible flush, nobody is going to call your river bet unless they have the flush. If there is no possible flush go ahead and bet. You will get call by two pair and tptk often enough to make it worth the times you are against a bigger set.
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Old 11-10-2007, 11:14 AM     Post subject: Re: Never Bet On The River - Eh? #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thunder
I mean, if 2 of you have got that far, and you're certain your hand is better then why not bet out?
If you are 100% certain your hand is better this is fine, because villain will occasionally hero call. But, a lot of the time especially in position, you find yourself with a marginal hand that is at the bottom of villains calling range. You should almost always check in these spots, because a bet will only be called by a better hand and if opp had a worse hand you would have won anyway. That is what is meant by "turning your hand into a bluff".

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It's also common to read "don't bet on the river unless the only way you can win is by a bluff". But this goes back to the above points. If it's ok for a bluff to be bet then why not a solid hand? And if you shouldn't bet 'cause you can walk into a beating then likewise with bluffing on the river?
Where did you read that? Vbet the river loads!
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Old 11-10-2007, 01:07 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 If only better hands call you are better off checking even if your 100% your hand is good. Only hope to get a bet in that case is to let him bluff.

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Thunder
Old 11-10-2007, 05:07 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Hi guys,

Spoonit,

The problem here is that you don't know what your opponent has, or how often you will win, so how do you make any EV play?

In the real life example I posted, only quads and a full house could beat me.


Jack ,

Your 4 to the flush example makes a lot of sense. There are still morons out there with trips who will call a bet as they are amrried to the hand.

Pankfish,

As you said, people will call with lower hands - and that is the point I was making: if you think you have the best then bet out. Which I had until the very last card. And even then, the river was a 3 to go with his pocket 3's. I coudln't legislate anyone calling my bets with just 3s.


Badgers,

I really thought I had the hand. Had my opponent hit trips on a board showing 7K9 clubs, he would've had a spaz attack and push all in so I knew he didn't have pocket 7s or Ks. And even if he did, he was beat by my flush. I put him on a lower flush draw, 7x or at a push (due to no aggression) Kx. Then the river came 3 clubs and he made his 3s full of Ks.

Thing is, even if I check in these circumstances, and my opponent bets then what? Sure, this could be a legitimate hand as villain scabbily landed but it could also be a weaker hand or just a bad bluff. Do you call? If so, then that's the same as pushing first, ain't it?
 
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Chopper
Old 11-11-2007, 02:19 PM #8 (permalink)  
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if you play lower stakes, and have what appears the better hand on river frequently, i think a better adage would be, "plan to valuebet/fold on the river."

so many hands will turn themselves face up on the river. and, when you bet out, who c/res you? or raises you when calling the whole way?

bluffs? i think not. at least not at donkeystakes.
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

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