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wonderland
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09-14-2008, 06:56 AM
Post subject: Need some info/articles on fold equity
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Nottingham, UK
Posts: 478
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Hi folks,
Been researching some theory and need a nice little article on fold equity. Anyone know of one?
Thanks!
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,805
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is there copyright on the content of this site?
anyway, I posted a link to this same question about a week ago - just scroll down through the forum and I think you'll find it...
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wonderland
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Nottingham, UK
Posts: 478
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cheers i got that.
kinda vague but i think i get it.
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settecba
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: stealing blinds from UTG
Posts: 326
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vague? if there is something else you want to know just ask, here is the right place i think
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ISF
Getting good at poker is like that scene in the matrix where Neo suddenly sees that everyone is just a bunch of structured numbers and then he starts bending those numbers in really weird ways.
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wonderland
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Nottingham, UK
Posts: 478
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well, in the thread i looked at people weren't agreeing on a water tight deffinition but that's ok.
I think fold equity is taking into account all the factors that would lead someone to fold.
I had a hand recently and there were SO many outs, i'd still kinda missed but i bet a reasonable amount on the turn. Hence I had a lot of fold equity in my play (or how do i word it.... the other player has fold equity? or i do?) and they folded.
Is that about right?
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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The definition of Fold Equity is: The percentage chance your opponent will fold to this play calculated in chips that are yours due to the percentage chance.
Lets say there's a 15% chance your opponent may fold a 100 dollar pot to you.
That means making that play gives you $15 dollars just by making it. This at first glance, seems like a bad play. Which is why pure bluffs are so bad, there is rarely enough fold equity in comparison to the amount you have to bet.
If you bet around a pot sized bet, with a 15% chance your opponent is going to fold, you've wasted a ton of money.
The reason the calculation is equitous, is because Let's say you make a flop bluff with say, the nut flush draw. Your opponent bets out a pot sized bet, and you raise 3 times that pot sized bet on the flop. There is a 15% chance your opponent will fold here PLUS the 19% chance you'll hit your flush on the turn PLUS the very good chance (Say 95%) that your opponent will let you see the river for free bringing you up to like a 35% chance to hit your flush.
So that Bluff may end up being worth about 50% of the pot.
Which is ALWAYS good.
Finally the percentages I threw around are almost all opponent dependant. One opponent may fold to that bet 100% of the time, another may never fold to that bet. It's up to you to gauge.
The only percent that is static in this whole post is the chance to hit your flush by the river.
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here? 
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wonderland
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Nottingham, UK
Posts: 478
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cheers for that 
noted.
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