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my worst bad beat - what were the odds ?

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scrawnybob

10-04-2005, 10:23 AM Post subject: my worst bad beat - what were the odds ?

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: UK

Posts: 7

this is my worst bad beat - cant see i did anything wrong - ive checked the percentages but does anyone know the odds of them hitting both cards they needed ?

5+0.50 SnG full table tournie, I limp in to see the flop with Queen 10

flop comes down King Ace Jack (rainbow)

making me a straight on the flop - I raise all-in (which is just over twice the size of the pot)

I get called by one player who turns over 99

Figure Im sorted as he needs runner runner to make full house / 4 of a kind to beat my straight

what does he get - Turn - King (2 pair Kings and 9's) - River - 9 (full house)

Bad beat or what - anyone know the odds ????

scrawybob@4kingpoker.com

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satan1974

10-04-2005, 10:35 AM

#2 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jul 2005

Posts: 147

Not sure on the odds but;

1) There is a section in the forum specifically for bad beats!
2) That wasn't really that bad, play for a few more months then you'll know what a bad beat is (KKKK losing to AAAA for example) !

scrawnybob

10-04-2005, 01:17 PM Post subject: cheers Satan

#3 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: UK

Posts: 7

cheers Satan

oops - didnt see it - was looking but not been on this forum before - ill look harder next time - guess this maybe isnt the place to discuss it

if you only count quads against quads as a bad beat then mine isnt bad but I thought it was a pretty bad beat as when he'd called the all-in he was definately 99% the underdog - I just could figure why he called with an under pair when just about anything had him beat - I dont know how to figure out the odds of getting runner runner - how do you get the odds from working out two sets of outs the 5th depending on hitting the 4th before hand ?

Ive been playing for 2 years - maybe im a slow learner - this was the worst one in the last month - and I just wanted to find out how to calculate it as odds to get beat rather than % to win / lose

cheers anyway scrawn

sinky

10-04-2005, 03:27 PM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: SCOTLAND

Posts: 295

Odds of a pocket pair improving to Boat or Quads when board is not paired.
2 scenarios...
A) He hits a 9 on the turn and the board pairs on the river .
(2/47 * 10/46) = 0.925%
B) The board pairs on the turn and 2 pair improves on the river
(9/47 * 4/46) = 1.665%
A + B = 2.59% or about a 37/1 dog.

CrunchyNuts

10-04-2005, 05:16 PM

#5 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2005

Posts: 436

Code:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1258888
pokenum  -h qh ts  - 9h 9s  -- ah kc jd 
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Kc Jd Ah
cards  win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
Ts Qh  953  96.26    28   2.83    9  0.91  0.967
9s 9h   28   2.83   953  96.26    9  0.91  0.033

scrawnybob

10-04-2005, 06:01 PM Post subject: bad beat odds - poker mate thingys

#6 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: UK

Posts: 7

cheers guys

really helpful - now im a bit clearer how to translate percentages into odds

id been thinking it was like a 1000/1 shot for him to get runner runner - think id been adding odds together for the 4th then the 5th instead of just looking at total out combinations on the flop

ive been thinking i should start using one of these poker mate things but im on a mac - any suggestions - are they really what everyone is using online now ?

cheers scrawnybob

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my worst bad beat - what were the odds ?

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