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celtic123
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02-16-2010, 04:01 PM
Post subject: My set hunting stats on the Flop only.
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: **Officially**The worst poster on FTR
Posts: 708
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I filtered all my pocket pairs at 36,000 hands.Where I hit a set on the flop only. Reguardless of how the hand panned out.
KK and AA Excluded.
I filtered where I missed my set on the flop.
 .
Intresting how often I hit ,compared with how often I miss.
This isnt exactly scientific ,
988 missed 173 hit , Thats 17.5%
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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It's an easy mistake to make, but it's not 173/988, it's 173/(173+988), which is something like 15%. :]
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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hhsale
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One Pair
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Russia
Posts: 19
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small distantion I think
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Monty3038
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Ohio
Posts: 788
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I think that pretty much falls into set odds, isn't it like 1/8 which is around 12.5%?
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Jason
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: TN
Posts: 883
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I'm not a standard deviation expert but 15% actual versus 11% expected result seems like a decent discrepancy over 1000 hand sample. Consider yourself on the good side of that result over that interval.
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- Jason
 
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason
I'm not a standard deviation expert but 15% actual versus 11% expected result seems like a decent discrepancy over 1000 hand sample. Consider yourself on the good side of that result over that interval.
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It seems that way but it's really not, I promise :]
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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knaplek
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
It seems that way but it's really not, I promise :]
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Really? I get a standard deviation of about 11, putting him in the luckiest 0.1% of the population. Of course I don't know how that sits him in the population subset of people who had such abnormal results they deemed it worthy of posting a thread about it  . Maybe I have this wrong, anyone else get a value that makes this less unlikely?
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knaplek
Really? I get a standard deviation of about 11, putting him in the luckiest 0.1% of the population. Of course I don't know how that sits him in the population subset of people who had such abnormal results they deemed it worthy of posting a thread about it . Maybe I have this wrong, anyone else get a value that makes this less unlikely? |
Like I said, it's only like a little over 3 standard deviations off (I got 3.32 for about a 0.06% chance), not really a big deal. That's like twice the chance of being dealt a hand from QQ+ two hands in a row.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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