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Is my read enough to do this? (10NL)

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Zee Devee

12-18-2007, 07:19 AM Post subject: Is my read enough to do this? (10NL)

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Sep 2006

Location: Wisconsin

Posts: 694

I don't have a HUD so no stats, but I was playing with villain on 3 different tables for a while. He wass pretty loose and c-bet around 80-90% of the time. Most of his c-bets were around 2/3 the pot, so this is probably a poor spot to play back on the flop. I will put my thoughts in the hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($4.80)
BB ($8.60)
UTG ($7.50)
MP ($30.70)
Hero ($10.40)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T

, 8

.
1 fold, MP raises to $0.35, the stacks are deep enough to have the implied odds to call this, plus I have position so I can probably take it away on a dry boardHero calls $0.35, 2 folds.

Flop: ($0.85) 6

, 7

, 4

(2 players)
MP bets $0.7, Right now I have a double gutshot, so 8~ish outs, I am getting not so great odds to call here, so maybe a semibluff would be good here.Hero raises to $2, MP calls $1.30.

Turn: ($4.85) Q

(2 players)
MP checks, Ok, he called that, so he probably has some sort of hand, but not that great of one, so I will try to (semi)bluff again to try to knock him off here. It would be a decent spot to take a free card, but with the draws on the board and me repping a made hand means if I don't hit I can't bluff well on the river. If he calls push river regardless.Hero bets $2.5, MP calls $2.50.

River: ($9.85) 5

(2 players)
MP checks, Push the river regardless. I made my straight. WheeeeeHero bets $5.55 (All-In), MP calls $5.55.

Final Pot: $20.95

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iolzizlyi

12-18-2007, 07:51 AM

#2 (permalink)

Join Date: Feb 2007

Location: Athens, GA

Posts: 67

overall i think i like it. man i can't help but think he has 55. i think pretty much any other hand that would call the turn would just shove over on the flop.

thizzSantaCruz

12-18-2007, 07:52 AM

#3 (permalink)

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Location: Santa Cruz

Posts: 894

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this is good, especially if villain is going to call your raise with a FD. Sometimes I might just check the turn if the flop wasn't so draw heavy.

Flopping quads and boats like its my job

naturalassassin

12-18-2007, 09:40 AM

#4 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2007

Location: Canada

Posts: 59

I'd like to wait for a better spot to raise the a loose aggressive player. Loose players tend to chase after cards. So a call should be expected for any pair or big draw.
I still like the raise rather than a call. A raise could have won you the pot right there if the player had missed completely. A call would have tipped off that you were on a draw.
In the end you got paid off so you made a good play.

Don't knock on deaths door... ring the bell and run! Death hates that LOL.

Pelion

12-18-2007, 11:45 AM

#5 (permalink)

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Join Date: Sep 2005

Posts: 3,206

I don't like it. You sized the bets perfectly to get it allin. He basically cant get away on any street because

a) He is loose
b) You bet so small.

The stack sizes are so much better if you call the flop bet and either take it away if he checks to you, or rep the flush if it comes or value bet the straight.

The river is good though

gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?

Ash256

12-18-2007, 01:29 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Well said Pelion.

Listen to my music

Zee Devee

12-19-2007, 01:40 AM

#7 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Sep 2006

Location: Wisconsin

Posts: 694

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pelion

So a better line here is:

Preflop: Hero is Button with T , 8 .
1 fold, MP raises to $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, 2 folds.

Flop: ($0.85) 6 , 7 , 4 (2 players)
MP bets $0.7, Hero raises to $3

Or

Flop: ($0.85) 6 , 7 , 4 (2 players)
MP bets $0.7, Hero calls $0.7.

Turn: ($4.85) Q (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks.

River: ($4.85) 5 (2 players)
MP bets (maybe), Hero shoves??

I like the first one better because the second looks too much like a draw that hit (or fd that missed) that I would get called less, plus it is a bigger bet on the river that a lot of people in microstakes are scared of, even if they are pot sized bets.

Also a completely unrelated question: Somewhere either ISF or Spenda (maybe someone else that spends time in here) said that microstakes players love to get scared and shut down once a fd hits. But since a lot of microstakes players play crap cards because they are soooted and play for the flush, wouldn't this fear be justified and their willingness to fold be better plays?

TLR

12-19-2007, 07:07 AM

#8 (permalink)

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Posts: 5,007

TLR is an unknown quantity at this point

I think his call on both flop and turn implies some form of a draw and not a made hand, and 89 is definitly a possible holding, I would check behind on river

Pelion

12-19-2007, 10:25 AM

#9 (permalink)

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Join Date: Sep 2005

Posts: 3,206

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zee Devee

Flop: ($0.85) 6 , 7 , 4 (2 players)
MP bets $0.7, Hero calls $0.7.

Turn: ($4.85) Q (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $3.50 or something

But yea if you want to raise raise to $3 or something. $2 is barely more than a minimum raise and he is folding nothing.

gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?

Robb

12-20-2007, 01:35 PM Post subject: Re: Is my read enough to do this? (10NL)

#10 (permalink)

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Robb is an unknown quantity at this point

Quote:

Originally Posted by naturalassassin

In the end you got paid off so you made a good play.

I disagree. In the end, you got paid off, so you didn't learn that this was a huge mistake. IMO, this is Fancy Play Syndrome - on Barry Bonds level steroids.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zee Devee

Preflop: Hero is Button with T

, 8

.
1 fold, MP raises to $0.35, the stacks are deep enough to have the implied odds to call this, plus I have position so I can probably take it away on a dry boardHero calls $0.35, 2 folds.

Autofold preflop, for three reasons.
1. You're calling a raise, not limping, so your assumption you can take away any pot on a dry board might backfire. What if he has pocket Jack's? How do you get away from this hand without losing most of your stack the 5% of times he has a real hand here?
2. This hand could easily be dominated. If he's loose at NL10, the typical "bad" open-raise ranges I've seen often have lots of hands that would have this hand dominated: AT, KT, QT, JT or even T9. (Also include sooted aces, see below.) I like this play better with 86s than T8s. With T8s, if you connect with the middle or bottom of the flop, you're very worried about all those weak Broadway hands this idiot may have opened with.
3. I don't like how you're thinking about implied odds. You have almost $2.50 in this pot on a semi-bluff and fire another $2.50 in with 8 outs, though the possible spade flush discounts them a bit. So...17.4% chance to make your hand (which, if the guy has 2 spades, loses to the flush). You make a preflop decision to call a $.35 bet because of implied odds. You actually invested $5, and as the hand played out, were basically ready to stack off with air. I believe this is called reverse implied odds, giving the villain good odds to draw to his medium strength hand (see pelion's post above).

Finally, let me say this. I'm am the KING of Fancy Play Syndrome. I hate this play so much because me pulling this kind of stunt has cost me a TON of money in the last few months. So I quit.

To beat NL10, we don't need to play this way. Seriously, we can beat NL10 for 10+ BB/100 without ever trying moves like this. It's also too dangerous against stations (what's your flop play if it's the 2 of spades instead of the 5?), of which there are many. I just don't think you should have been in this hand at all.

bode

12-20-2007, 01:45 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Posts: 4,270

bode is an unknown quantity at this point

Robb, we dont play SC's and gappers to flop TP weak kicker. We play them to flop 2 pair+ and big draws and valuetown hands like JJ on this board.

Quote:

eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.

Robb

12-20-2007, 03:11 PM

#12 (permalink)

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Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 3,072

And when we do, bode, it's FPS for this level. Why bother, given the problems, when you can cash in big without it? I've won something like $400 in the last 12 days at NL10 and never once called a raise with a suited 1-gapper. I'm on a bit of a heater, admittedly, but 40k hands of ABC poker at NL10 suggest this is way too advanced a play for this level of competition.

My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against

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