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mmm good fold?

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Fedora

03-08-2010, 12:47 AM Post subject: mmm good fold?

#1 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Posts: 91

Opponent was 26/17/1.3 over 217 hands, no real reads, haven't seen him show down with a bluff yet.

preflop put him on 22+, KQ, AT+

flop put him on 88 - JJ, KQ, AT+

turn, I 3 bet him because he has soo many of a pair and a draw hands here, that I didn't want him to draw. Looking back, I probably should have just 3 bet more here, or just call. I guess I didn't want to commit myself and that looked weak.

But for his agreesion, when he 4 bet, I put him on { 88, 99, JJ, AA } I don't think that'd he'd bet a big draw here like a KQ of hearts.

What's the best play here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($4.70)
SB ($12.45)
Hero (BB) ($10)
UTG ($11.35)
MP ($9.50)
CO ($24.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A

, J

UTG calls $0.10, 4 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.25) 9

, J

, 8

(2 players)
Hero bets $0.20, UTG calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.65) A

(2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, UTG raises to $1.40, Hero raises to $2.50, UTG raises to $4.10,

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spoonitnow

03-08-2010, 02:13 AM

#2 (permalink)

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If you 3-bet the turn, it should be with the intention of stacking-off. You can't 3-bet the turn and then fold here because by that point you're getting such good odds to call.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

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Fedora

03-08-2010, 03:05 AM

#3 (permalink)

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So do you like the bet fold on the turn better or just shove over top?

spoonitnow

03-08-2010, 03:23 AM

#4 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fedora

So do you like the bet fold on the turn better or just shove over top?

What do you think his stacking-off range is on the turn?

Fedora

03-08-2010, 04:29 AM

#5 (permalink)

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I just don't think he's stacking off with anything worse than my hand here. Any set he's stacking off, and I didn't put QT in his range, because of the preflop limp, and I don't think he'd limp that.
So I think he'd stack off with { 88, 99, JJ, AJ }

spoonitnow

03-08-2010, 05:37 AM

#6 (permalink)

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Well stick that in PokerStove: Poker Software and Analysis and figure out if you can call or not ala How To: Analyze Calling An All-in. Then after you consult with others on deciding if that range is accurate enough, decide if you really want to stack off on the turn or not. Best of luck.

atlantafalcons0

03-08-2010, 06:32 AM

#7 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

If you 3-bet the turn, it should be with the intention of stacking-off. You can't 3-bet the turn and then fold here because by that point you're getting such good odds to call.

I agree, and why did he just check preflop again?

Erpel

03-08-2010, 08:54 AM

#8 (permalink)

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Posts: 605

My preflop range for this opponent does not include many/any premium hands. He is obviously capable of and preferring to raise preflop. UTG open limp is such an annoying and pointless play, but if I were to suggest hands he might do it with I'd start with 22-55 + A5s-ATs. It is possible, however unlikely, that he wants to limp/re-raise with AA, so we can't rule it out completely.

Flop call is on a really really wet flop. I don't see how a set in this situation really calls - I'd expect him to raise sets almost always. The obvious hands from my narrow pre-flop suggestion are A8s-ATs where ATs might arguably raise to price out flush draws. An AA hand could call I guess if it had open limped UTG pre-flop.

I think the turn action is completely consistent with A8s-ATs/AA. If you think he'd open limp AJ pre-flop you can throw in AJ, AJs or AJo for fun and games. I think his most likely hands are A8s-A9s (yeah, 4 combos total) and that he'd stack off with them every time.

While AA, AT and AJ are all arguably possible, they should all be discounted and let's not forget that AA which crushes us has only one combo and should likely be heavily discounted.

But hey, I suck at hand ranges. Any other ideas?

knaplek

03-08-2010, 04:02 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Posts: 78

Quote:

Originally Posted by Erpel

But hey, I suck at hand ranges. Any other ideas?

No, I think you're spot on. I also think hero should raise pre so villain can call for set odds and then fold 80%+ flops.

littleogre

03-10-2010, 07:20 PM

#10 (permalink)

Join Date: Oct 2004

Posts: 1,344

littleogre has a little shameless behaviour in the past

i think this is not such an easy spot. I'm not sure raising pf is such a good idea we are oop with a mediocre hand. As far as the best play on the turn i think i like calling his reraise better then 3-betting. According to op villain is not gonna stack off with a worse hand so why are so so eager to get all in. Also by just calling i think we get some value from getting worse hands to bet into us .

Donachello

03-10-2010, 08:39 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Donachello will become famous soon enough

Since he's 4betting here his range has to be 2pair or better. What remains of his UTG limping range at this point is 88, 99, A9s, A8s, AJ. A 26/17/1.3 isn't all that unreasonable and therefore probably has some idea of basic poker.

pokerstove says this:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

616 games 0.005 secs 123,200 games/sec

Board: 9h 8h Js Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.455% 31.17% 14.29% 192 88.00 { AhJc }
Hand 1: 54.545% 40.26% 14.29% 248 88.00 { 99-88, AJs, A9s-A8s, AJo }

If you've never seen him bluff and don't think he has any other hands worse than yours it's a fold.
As spoon said, you have to figure out his stacking off range. You're never 3betting here with the intention of folding afterwards. With that said, I'd make the 3bet bigger if I am stacking off here. If I'm not happy about stacking off here I'm calling the raise and re-evaluating on the river. a 1.3AF isn't someone who bluffs much and their raises like this are probably not going to be on draws.

[00:29] <daven> dc, why not check turn behind
[00:30] <DC> daven
[00:30] <DC> on my hand?
[00:30] <daven> yep
[00:30] <DC> because I am drunk
[00:30] <daven> nice reason
[00:30] <daven> no further questions
[00:30] <yaawn> ^^Lol

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